Budget 2025

[Dorset Boy]

From the Beeb:
Henry Zeffman
Chief political correspondent

This is a totally surreal session of PMQs.

Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch are going through the motions of a PMQs before the Budget. The prime minister just said that it’s “literally 25 minutes” until the measures will be unveiled.

Not so.

The Budget is already out there thanks to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s error.

This is truly extraordinary. An hour ago it would have been unimaginable.

It’s hard to find the right adjectives to do it justice.

There will be total fury at the top of government right now and, presumably, a reckoning of some sort for the OBR.

 

[Dorset Boy]

Mansion Tax on properties over £2 million
Personal Allowances frozen until at least 2030/31
EV mileage tax
Change to green energy tariffs in an effort to lower household energy costs
Salary Exchange for pension capped at £2,000 from April 2029
Fuel Duty frozen

And Rachel is still doing her lipstick

 

[First Aspect]

The salary sacrifice one is high level stupidity.

 

[PurplePenguin]

The salary sacrifice one is high level stupidity.

It only affects NI.

 

[Beebo]

Salary sacrifice will annoy me too, but not until 2029. So fill your boots now.
The problem is that it allows people to avoid the cliff edge tax changes. The £100k one being the worst of the lot.
It’s very easy for someone on £99k to stick £20k into a pension without affecting their living standards.

 

[Beebo]

It only affects NI.

But employers might no longer offer it, if it costs them money to operate it by having to pay NI.

 

[First Aspect]

The salary sacrifice one is high level stupidity.

Okay it's insulating employees directly, but it's a repeat of the growth suppression mistake she made last year. I mean it's literally the exact same thing. The only interesting point is it's delayed until 2029 so I think they will be hoping to either not implement it or will not be in power (more likely).

And on the OBR, clearly it's not functioning well. Every single prediction I can recall in the last year or few has been subsequently revised down. So they are making a systematic error, or you would expect some forecasts to be out the other way. In turn this not only leads to uncertainty but also disrupts actual governance because the goal posts are always changing.

Combined with the early release, I would guess we'd see a positive market reaction to some firings there.

 

[First Aspect]

But employers might no longer offer it, if it costs them money to operate it by having to pay NI.

It's almost tax neutral anyway, and avoids loads of backlogs at the HMRC claiming it back. So removing it or complicating islt is stupid from that perspective as well.

I'm interested in the concept that someone along £99k finds it easy to put £20k a year away in a pension, incidentally. Does that mean someone on £50k can miss £10k without really noticing?

 

[First Aspect]

It only affects NI.

Yeah just spotted that. I've calmed down now. I still think it's a bad call because employers will say it's another anti growth policy and it will suppress wages.

 

[Psamathe]

OBR have dropped the ball and published their full analysis.
Someone will be getting sacked.
No huge surprises in the announcement

Or are they trying to avoid "The Markets" getting jittery? Seems our entire economy/politics is driven mostly by the short term emotional reaction of this hypothetical entity.

 

[bobzmyunkle]

Does that mean someone on £50k can miss £10k without really noticing?

Interesting logic.

 

[First Aspect]

Interesting logic.

I am trying to stimulate discussion. Sometimes you need to be provocative.

 

[bobzmyunkle]

you need to be provocative.

Well you provoked my reply.

 

[Dorset Boy]

Cash Isa allowance down to £12,000 pa for under 65s.
Remains at £20,000 pa for 65s and over.
Totally unnecassary complication. Just cut it to £12,000 for everyone you halfwit.

 

[PurplePenguin]

Cash Isa allowance down to £12,000 pa for under 65s.
Remains at £20,000 pa for 65s and over.
Totally unnecassary complication. Just cut it to £12,000 for everyone you halfwit.

That's for cash. Everyone can include £8k pa in the stocks and shares in addition.