Budget 2025

[First Aspect]

Doubling down on not doing a thing she wasn't going to do, but thought about doing. Is that where we are now? Thought crime?

Doubling down on the leaks thing somehow not coming from the top is what Ieant. And she's the one calling and investigation and creating a story (again). It isn't the best way of making anything go away.

I'm starting to think that this generation of labour isn't very good at actual politics.

 

[Dorset Boy]

Clearly the previous 2 posters to First Aspect didn't notice Reeves's interview at the start of November, or all the leaks and u-turns from her team at the Treasury in the build up to the budget.
Reeves claiming no responsibility for those leaks is laughable.
That's her doubling down.

 

[secretsqirrel]

I lost track of leaks, official leaks, discussion of budget options and press speculation. The chancellor may have been the blame for some of it, but the rest was clearly not in her control.

 

[First Aspect]

I lost track of leaks, official leaks, discussion of budget options and press speculation. The chancellor may have been the blame for some of it, but the rest was clearly not in her control.

It is certainly true that it's not just the treasury. It is the culture within government at the moment and I suspect that not all ministers are happy about it or in full control over it. I suspect the hand of an unelected grey spin doctor is behind a lot of it.

But not all. e.g. *that* interview. Which was just an attempt to humanise the grim reaper. Didn't work.

 

[Psamathe]

She's making far too massive a deal about OBR publishing documents an hour or 2 early. Of course OBR messed-up and the cause needs to be addressed not scapegaoted.

But so we found her budget a couple of hours early but also available to everybody (incl. markets) a couple of hours early so nobody can insider-deal or manipulate to gain. Her speach was "old news" but that's just ego.

Making such an issue of OBR going early is most likely to distract from all the leaks and "pitch rolling" in the weeks before budget day.

 

[Dorset Boy]

Now, about that agenda for economic growth....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwyp7v7r28yo
Not going well is it Rachel!

 

[CXRAndy]

Will the figures going into next year officially shunt the UK into recession?

Thats going to do wonders for business confidence

 

[First Aspect]

Will the figures going into next year officially shunt the UK into recession?

Thats going to do wonders for business confidence

No. A recession is two successive quarters of negative growth. I also suspect one of these months will get revised up to zero, or at the very least JLRs activity to recover delayed manufacturing will generate a bump in a later month.

None of which is to suggest the results are.good, as.such.

 

[Psamathe]

Now, about that agenda for economic growth....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwyp7v7r28yo
Not going well is it Rachel!

I regard current Labour's excessive focus on growth as daft:

• We live on a finite planet - perpetual growth is unsustainable.
• Taxing individuals to increase public spending might increase growth but it doesn't make us wealthier.
• GDP for the country has no useful meaning. It's GDP per head that's relevant.
• etc.

 

[briantrumpet]

FWIW (which mightn't be much)

https://archive.ph/yzbpf

 

[Dorset Boy]

Interesting Brian, particularly as the article says the economy actually grew by 2% pa between 2010 and 2015, you know those years of austerity.

However, Rachel's policies do not appear to be delivering any growth, and when you learn about things such as the K shaped economy you can see why.
Put more money in the pockets of households with incomes under £70k pa and they will spend almost all of it, boosting growth.

 

[icowden]

However, Rachel's policies do not appear to be delivering any growth, and when you learn about things such as the K shaped economy you can see why.
Put more money in the pockets of households with incomes under £70k pa and they will spend almost all of it, boosting growth.

Odd. UK GDP Growth for 2025 is projected to be 1.4% up from 1.1% in 2024. I grant you that growth slowed in Q3 losing 0.1%, but that's highly unlikely to be linked to Reeves policies given that the ones you don't like were in Q4.