briantrumpet
Timewaster
Karma coming
Donald I, emperor of the world.
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Pinno718
Slight downhill specialist
Some interesting observations from this Australian economist.
Whilst everyone has been focusing on Musk's $473m spending on the election, it is dwarfed by losses in the markets the day after the mid-terms.
Musk owns roughly 2/3rds of Tesla and 2/5th's of Starlink FWIW.
The drop of 4.3 in Tesla and 4.7% in Starlink shares respectively, the day after the mid terms, amounted to $54 bn.
The 100% tariffs on imports of Chinese electric cars of course, helps Tesla no end.
A change in administration/legislation could potentially wipe billions of Musk's ventures. Almost everything he does is dependent on government grants and contracts.
So, it begs the question - how much is he willing to spend in 2028?
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ps1F9QIXAH0
Whilst everyone has been focusing on Musk's $473m spending on the election, it is dwarfed by losses in the markets the day after the mid-terms.
Musk owns roughly 2/3rds of Tesla and 2/5th's of Starlink FWIW.
The drop of 4.3 in Tesla and 4.7% in Starlink shares respectively, the day after the mid terms, amounted to $54 bn.
The 100% tariffs on imports of Chinese electric cars of course, helps Tesla no end.
A change in administration/legislation could potentially wipe billions of Musk's ventures. Almost everything he does is dependent on government grants and contracts.
So, it begs the question - how much is he willing to spend in 2028?
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ps1F9QIXAH0
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Pblakeney
Shaman
A far as summaries go this is long. Excessive even, and yet still just skimming the surface.
“I once had a Trump supporter ask me how I'm so sure that his economic policies won't work.
I laughed — then I said, "You're joking, right?"
The question really should be: Why would anyone think someone who's failed at basically every business he's ever created would know how to run a country?
I asked them to name one thriving, successful business he's created that wasn't just a wealth generator for himself. As in, name something tangible with Trump's name on it that he's created that's actually seen as a "success."
His biggest "success" is conning people into thinking he's a "success."
Sure, he's built a few buildings, but with the majority of the ones that have his name on them, he had little to do with them outside of licensing his name to be put on them.
To be fair, that is a level of successful marketing — but he's marketing a lie. That lie being that he's a "hugely successful businessman."
You can put "Trump" in front of a ton of nouns, and you'd be listing one of his many business failures.
Trump Magazine, Trump Vodka, Trump Steaks, Trump Mortgage, Trump University, Trump Shuttle, and all the various names of his hotels and casinos — all massive failures.
For example, here's how long some of his many business failures lasted:
Trump Taj Mahal: Roughly 15 months
Trump Shuttle: 3 years
Trump University (which was a scam): 5 years
Trump Mortgage: Roughly 18 months
Trump Steaks: 2 months
GoTrump: Roughly 12 months
Trump Magazine: 3 years
And there's so much context, such as Trump University being nothing but a scam; Trump Magazine being something he started right at the dawn of the digital age of media; Trump Mortgage being something he launched at what he called the "perfect time" to start a mortgage company, just before the worst housing collapse in history; and the fact that he's run every single casino — entities designed to make the house money — out of business.
I mean, come on — he literally started a mortgage company just before the worst housing crash we've ever seen. You can't make that up when it comes to terrible instincts as a businessperson.
Then there's his foundation, which he shut down after he was caught using funds from it for his own personal benefit.
The list goes on and on.
His greatest "success" is his role playing a fake CEO on a fake reality TV show where fake employees did fake work tasks and he fake-fired them.
Everything about his image of a "massively successful businessman" is based on total bullsh*t.
That's why I don't trust his economic policies.
We're close to two years into his second term, and look at the damage he's done. Literally nearly every major economic metric is worse now than when he took over. He's singlehandedly responsible for inflation hitting three-year highs and diesel prices setting new records.
Despite his asinine tariffs, our trade deficit in 2025 was no better than in 2024, and the "goods" deficit actually grew.
The only thing his tariffs did was force every American to pay more for damn near everything.
This is a president who's trashing the trade agreement we have with the Canadians — the same trade agreement he signed and boasted about during his first administration.
The moron is literally trashing his own trade agreement. That's how incompetent he is.
His entire reputation as a businessman was built on screwing over small businesses and contractors, racking up bankruptcies and failures, and being so toxic that he was basically run out of New York City because no one wanted to do business with him.
Besides, what has he ever said he would do economically that's actually come true?
Did he "very easily" end deficits and pay off the national debt?
Nope.
Did he "cut electric bills in half during his first 12 months"?
Nope.
Did we ever get DOGE rebate checks or tariff dividend payments?
Nope.
Did his tax cuts even reduce our deficits?
Nope.
Did his tariffs lower our trade deficits?
Nope.
Did he get Mexico to pay for his wall?
Nope.
Even this whole delusion about him being a "master negotiator" — based on what evidence?
He didn't "very easily" end the war in Ukraine; he can't get out of his disastrous war in Iran; and his big promise of "90 trade deals in 90 days," a deadline that expired well over a year ago, never came anywhere close to becoming a reality. At best, he signed a handful of tentative outlines of agreements, but no in-depth, detailed trade deals — and damn sure not 90 of them.
Remember when he said Barack Obama would start a war with Iran because he was a "weak and ineffective negotiator"? Well, our 44th president never started that war — but Trump sure as heck did.
So, I guess according to Trump, he's a "weak and ineffective negotiator"?
His only "negotiation" tactic is to try to bully other people into doing what he wants, then throw hissy fits when anyone pushes back against him.
That's literally it.
That's the end of his "negotiation strategy."
Even his boasting about the economy being "better than ever" is all 100% total bullsh*t. There's no major economic metric anywhere that's better now than when he took office — let alone "the best ever."
Just like everything about him, it's just his attempt to market failure as "success."
He reminds me of a sales guy I worked with who I couldn't stand. We had a new CFO come in who wasn't a fan of him either. One day, the CFO asked me what I thought of him. My answer was, "His best skill is selling himself as a great salesperson — but he sucks, hardly sells, and doesn't make us any money."
That's Trump.
His greatest "success" is being a con artist who, to his credit, did a great job marketing himself as a successful businessman despite his failures. It's why I've called him possibly the greatest con man in human history.
So, that's why I don't trust his economic policies — because there's nothing in Donald Trump's past or present that tells me he's anything more than an incompetent, narcissistic, total f*cking idiot whose best "skill" is somehow convincing others that he's successful, despite a résumé filled with unethical business practices, screwing over anyone he needed to in order to get ahead, and a long list of failed businesses and poor decisions.”
“I once had a Trump supporter ask me how I'm so sure that his economic policies won't work.
I laughed — then I said, "You're joking, right?"
The question really should be: Why would anyone think someone who's failed at basically every business he's ever created would know how to run a country?
I asked them to name one thriving, successful business he's created that wasn't just a wealth generator for himself. As in, name something tangible with Trump's name on it that he's created that's actually seen as a "success."
His biggest "success" is conning people into thinking he's a "success."
Sure, he's built a few buildings, but with the majority of the ones that have his name on them, he had little to do with them outside of licensing his name to be put on them.
To be fair, that is a level of successful marketing — but he's marketing a lie. That lie being that he's a "hugely successful businessman."
You can put "Trump" in front of a ton of nouns, and you'd be listing one of his many business failures.
Trump Magazine, Trump Vodka, Trump Steaks, Trump Mortgage, Trump University, Trump Shuttle, and all the various names of his hotels and casinos — all massive failures.
For example, here's how long some of his many business failures lasted:
Trump Taj Mahal: Roughly 15 months
Trump Shuttle: 3 years
Trump University (which was a scam): 5 years
Trump Mortgage: Roughly 18 months
Trump Steaks: 2 months
GoTrump: Roughly 12 months
Trump Magazine: 3 years
And there's so much context, such as Trump University being nothing but a scam; Trump Magazine being something he started right at the dawn of the digital age of media; Trump Mortgage being something he launched at what he called the "perfect time" to start a mortgage company, just before the worst housing collapse in history; and the fact that he's run every single casino — entities designed to make the house money — out of business.
I mean, come on — he literally started a mortgage company just before the worst housing crash we've ever seen. You can't make that up when it comes to terrible instincts as a businessperson.
Then there's his foundation, which he shut down after he was caught using funds from it for his own personal benefit.
The list goes on and on.
His greatest "success" is his role playing a fake CEO on a fake reality TV show where fake employees did fake work tasks and he fake-fired them.
Everything about his image of a "massively successful businessman" is based on total bullsh*t.
That's why I don't trust his economic policies.
We're close to two years into his second term, and look at the damage he's done. Literally nearly every major economic metric is worse now than when he took over. He's singlehandedly responsible for inflation hitting three-year highs and diesel prices setting new records.
Despite his asinine tariffs, our trade deficit in 2025 was no better than in 2024, and the "goods" deficit actually grew.
The only thing his tariffs did was force every American to pay more for damn near everything.
This is a president who's trashing the trade agreement we have with the Canadians — the same trade agreement he signed and boasted about during his first administration.
The moron is literally trashing his own trade agreement. That's how incompetent he is.
His entire reputation as a businessman was built on screwing over small businesses and contractors, racking up bankruptcies and failures, and being so toxic that he was basically run out of New York City because no one wanted to do business with him.
Besides, what has he ever said he would do economically that's actually come true?
Did he "very easily" end deficits and pay off the national debt?
Nope.
Did he "cut electric bills in half during his first 12 months"?
Nope.
Did we ever get DOGE rebate checks or tariff dividend payments?
Nope.
Did his tax cuts even reduce our deficits?
Nope.
Did his tariffs lower our trade deficits?
Nope.
Did he get Mexico to pay for his wall?
Nope.
Even this whole delusion about him being a "master negotiator" — based on what evidence?
He didn't "very easily" end the war in Ukraine; he can't get out of his disastrous war in Iran; and his big promise of "90 trade deals in 90 days," a deadline that expired well over a year ago, never came anywhere close to becoming a reality. At best, he signed a handful of tentative outlines of agreements, but no in-depth, detailed trade deals — and damn sure not 90 of them.
Remember when he said Barack Obama would start a war with Iran because he was a "weak and ineffective negotiator"? Well, our 44th president never started that war — but Trump sure as heck did.
So, I guess according to Trump, he's a "weak and ineffective negotiator"?
His only "negotiation" tactic is to try to bully other people into doing what he wants, then throw hissy fits when anyone pushes back against him.
That's literally it.
That's the end of his "negotiation strategy."
Even his boasting about the economy being "better than ever" is all 100% total bullsh*t. There's no major economic metric anywhere that's better now than when he took office — let alone "the best ever."
Just like everything about him, it's just his attempt to market failure as "success."
He reminds me of a sales guy I worked with who I couldn't stand. We had a new CFO come in who wasn't a fan of him either. One day, the CFO asked me what I thought of him. My answer was, "His best skill is selling himself as a great salesperson — but he sucks, hardly sells, and doesn't make us any money."
That's Trump.
His greatest "success" is being a con artist who, to his credit, did a great job marketing himself as a successful businessman despite his failures. It's why I've called him possibly the greatest con man in human history.
So, that's why I don't trust his economic policies — because there's nothing in Donald Trump's past or present that tells me he's anything more than an incompetent, narcissistic, total f*cking idiot whose best "skill" is somehow convincing others that he's successful, despite a résumé filled with unethical business practices, screwing over anyone he needed to in order to get ahead, and a long list of failed businesses and poor decisions.”
Dorset Boy
Über Member
Tesla's share price goes up and down by 3-4% regularly, and by regularly I would say twice a week. It's a very volatile stock.
Pinno718
Slight downhill specialist
It's also very inflated stock as it rests on the 'sometime in the future' but markets definitely reacted to the mid terms.
The current growth in the US market is uniquely amongst the big Tech bubble and a bubble it is.
Investors are pouring money into AI/Data centres and the returns are not guaranteed - maybe in the long term but not in the short term, that has become apparent.
And of course, the argument that billionaires benefit from favourable administration cannot be denied. To them, it's worth hundreds of billions. Imagine what a scree of legislation would do to the industry.
Imagine higher taxation, stipulation of energy consumption and subsidy, environmental controls, safeguarding etc.
The US tech industry and the bubble it currently exists in is thriving because of the sheer lack of legislative impediment to it's expansion. Of course it's going to react to a shift towards a Democratic House and Senate and god knows what monies will be thrown at the 2028 presidential election because the investment in a senate sympathetic to their cause makes a huge difference to the profit margin. Musk's endorsement of Ken Paxton in Texas worked out at $1000 per vote but the potential return is 10x that.
It's the bet they are willing to take because of the potential return and consequences.
The US has to reel this in before the tech giants simply buy politics which suits them.
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briantrumpet
Timewaster
Ah, yes, the "I was only kidding" excuse.
briantrumpet
Timewaster
I absolutely agree with this... sure, do stuff that addresses affordability and materially makes people's lives better, but that's going to be hard to show improvements in just two years. Do stuff (like Burnham has) that are easy wins (even if only within the Democratic Party, as per below), and in the case of the US in particular makes another Trump-type embezzlement spree and ignoring the Constitution harder to pull off if they do actually pass new anti-corruption laws.
briantrumpet
Timewaster
FWIW (wrong thread, as an aside), I think Burnham is getting it wrong in not slashing the size of single donations from companies and individuals to political parties in the UK - it's one of the things that has so grossly distorted US politics, though it is heartening that the size of the ad spend in the US this time seemed to make no great difference to the result.
Evil_Breakfast
Regular
In addition to @Pblakeney's excellent post above; Trump was also instrumental in crashing the USFL; a second tier American Football league, designed -originally- to run in the NFL close season. As is his way, his fragile ego couldn't cope with being blackballed by the NFL 'elders'.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Football_League
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Football_League
Psamathe
Squire
For me the entire system of "the Markets" is no longer "fit for purpose" and has become little more than a gambling system based on instability created by "the markets" themselves and detached from real world prospects and business.
Even worse when looked as shorter term. Just a group of people playing games and over-reacting, continual knee-jerk over-reactions.
They used to provide a more sensible indication of investment and the satte of business but they've deteriorated and more akin to Las Vegas mega casinos.
Pblakeney
Shaman
Is, was, and always will be.
For example, the price of oil is set by the stock market, not supply and demand. Of course that is a factor but not the decider.
Psamathe
Squire
Even more disheartening when looking at it in relation to the poverty, lack of healthcare, in some groups in the US yet they are continually spaffing money away on "political campaigns".
Had eg Musk donated just this Midterm money he gave to en local city homeless charities, or drug rehab or something there would have been some good for some people. Instead of which nothing. We are a flawed species and this sort of thing highlights our poor longer term prospects.
Pblakeney
Shaman
I think you are missing Musk's objectives in spending the money. He doesn't care about improving anything other than his personal wealth.
Which is why he and Donnie got on so well. Until there was a conflict of interests.
Oh, and socialism = communism = bad.
briantrumpet
Timewaster
A bit late for going "Oops!", and maybe not entirely heartfelt, given that he's just promoted its most ardent advocate, Hermann Miller, to Chief of Staff.
