Reform

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BoldonLad

Old man on a bike. Not a member of a clique.
Location
South Tyneside
Are now leading in polling above labour and Tories

The only poll that matters is the General Election 😊
 

Xipe Totec

Something nasty in the woodshed
They'll inevitably ally or merge with the Tories - until then their mutual pitch for the howling, knuckledragging, ex NF/BNP binburner thug vote will cancel itself out.

Something major's going to have to change, or the frog-faced fag-ash fascist will be PM. And I'm not holding my breath, this isn't a timeline where good things happen.
 

Psamathe

Well-Known Member
Pill findings mid-election cycle are very different from polls during the election campaign. At the moment poll responses are more about how people feel about current policies. Poll responses during campaigns are more about who people would feel happy about running things.

Classic example is French Presidential Elections which is 2 rounds so 1st round people vote in protest and normally a far-something gets through. Then 2nd round everyone suddenly thinks what would happen if far-whatever got in so they vote more moderately. For outside FR, first round causes "oh my god" press reactions but expressing how you feel about incumbents is different from who you'd accept actually running things.

Ian
 

C R

Veteran
Pill findings mid-election cycle are very different from polls during the election campaign. At the moment poll responses are more about how people feel about current policies. Poll responses during campaigns are more about who people would feel happy about running things.

Classic example is French Presidential Elections which is 2 rounds so 1st round people vote in protest and normally a far-something gets through. Then 2nd round everyone suddenly thinks what would happen if far-whatever got in so they vote more moderately. For outside FR, first round causes "oh my god" press reactions but expressing how you feel about incumbents is different from who you'd accept actually running things.

Ian

I admire your optimism, but given that people said the same about trump in the US, and given Starmer's inability or unwillingness to actually address people's problems, I'm not holding my breath.
 

Psamathe

Well-Known Member
I admire your optimism, but given that people said the same about trump in the US, and given Starmer's inability or unwillingness to actually address people's problems, I'm not holding my breath.
I'm not suggesting Reform won't do well or badly next General Election. I agree that as things are going right now Starmer and probably Labour will get just the one term. I certainly don't want more of where they're going.

Mainly commenting that poll results now don't give much clue about next General Election.

Whatever Labour do or don't do a degree of outcome for UK will be determined by international events.

That said, people are slow to change opinions and slow to change back so both Starmer snd Badenoch seem busy digging their ever deeper holes in the hope a ladder will magically arrive.

But people will find it easier to say "Farage" now because that decision wont put him in charge ie no consequences. When their decision might result in him getting to be PM they may easily reconsider ie big consequences.

Add that Farage is closely aligning himself with Trump. As Trump causes more issues and impacts and damage people in the IK will ask themselves "do we really want that here?".

Ian
 

AndyRM

Elder Goth
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