Reform

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ebikeerwidnes

Senior Member
Xipe Totec said:
They'll inevitably ally or merge with the Tories - until then their mutual pitch for the howling, knuckledragging, ex NF/BNP binburner thug vote will cancel itself out.

Something major's going to have to change, or the frog-faced fag-ash fascist will be PM. And I'm not holding my breath, this isn't a timeline where good things happen.
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Farage needs to be Top Dog
so unless he is leader of the new party he won't accept a merger

and I can't see that happening - at the moment

He also seems to like shouting from the sidelines.
If he became Tory leader then he would have to step up and be responsible for stuff - which is a big change from what he seems to like doing


so - at the moment - I can;t see a merger
If Farage buggers off then maybe
but without him Reform are nothing - it is really a one man party whatever the others think
so then a merger would be possible and Tice and 30p could be patted on the head and given a minor role being annoying and allowed to drift off into irrelevance
 
Xipe Totec

Xipe Totec

Something nasty in the woodshed
Wishful thinking, I'm afraid. Both parties know very well they're chasing exactly the same votes, and the only way Labour gets re-elected (as things stand now) will be if they cancel each other out in 2029.

Hard-right Tory psychopaths like Braverman are already talking publicly about a merger so you can bet that behind the scenes discussions are taking place. The only thing that drives the Tory Party is the acquisition of & retention of power, so if the way to achieving that is Prime Minister Farage, then that's what they will accept. It's inevitable.
 
All uphill

All uphill

Well-Known Member
Xipe Totec said:
Wishful thinking, I'm afraid. Both parties know very well they're chasing exactly the same votes, and the only way Labour gets re-elected (as things stand now) will be if they cancel each other out in 2029.

Hard-right Tory psychopaths like Braverman are already talking publicly about a merger so you can bet that behind the scenes discussions are taking place. The only thing that drives the Tory Party is the acquisition of & retention of power, so if the way to achieving that is Prime Minister Farage, then that's what they will accept. It's inevitable.
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As always with the Tories it's worth remembering that leaders are chosen by a tiny proportion of the electorate who are, ime, to the right of Tory voters.

Badenoch will know that and want those Reform votes. I hope she does a deal with Farage and they then tear each other to pieces.
 
Rusty Nails

Rusty Nails

Country Member
Xipe Totec said:
Wishful thinking, I'm afraid. Both parties know very well they're chasing exactly the same votes, and the only way Labour gets re-elected (as things stand now) will be if they cancel each other out in 2029.
Hard-right Tory psychopaths like Braverman are already talking publicly about a merger so you can bet that behind the scenes discussions are taking place. The only thing that drives the Tory Party is the acquisition of & retention of power, so if the way to achieving that is Prime Minister Farage, then that's what they will accept. It's inevitable.
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For Tories, substitute Republicans and for Farage substitute Trump, and we can see what could happen
 
E

ebikeerwidnes

Senior Member
All uphill said:
As always with the Tories it's worth remembering that leaders are chosen by a tiny proportion of the electorate who are, ime, to the right of Tory voters.

Badenoch will know that and want those Reform votes. I hope she does a deal with Farage and they then tear each other to pieces.
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Yes - but I reckon Farage would win

he is too clever and to viscious

however, I am not sure he would want the trouble and responsibility of being PM
Better to be able to get the crowd and shout from the sidelines then when it all goes wrong (in any way)you can shout how they should have done it your way
like Brexit
 
monkers

monkers

Legendary Member
CXRAndy said:
Are now leading in polling above labour and Tories
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Maybe unfair of me to give you another ''below the belt'' comment Andy, but I believe you are also somewhat premature. Maybe your wife believes you when you say a three minute poling session is a guarantee of satisfaction?

The poll from the shopping polling company 'NowFindOut' is one I'd not previously heard of. To claim that with no to little prior experiencein election polling means that they have 2000 contributors who represent a balance of public opinion is maybe a bit far fetched.

Second point, raw polls do not necessarily correlate with the number of seats won. This is known to all political parties who run campaigns targeting certain seats and not others -hence the attack on the 'red walls' in the 2019 GE.

Third point is we know this is the case, since changes in the popular vote do not correlate with the number of seats won.

In other words, even if Reform were to win 26% of the vote in any forthcoming election, this is doubtful that this would translate into enough seats to win an election. A Reform / Tory coalition or supply and confidence agreement might seem feasible, but you have to ask yourself just how feasible.

If you really want to play at fantasy thinking, you might recognise that the most likely outcome might be a hung parliament. In which case, theoretically at least, a Lib.Dem, Greens, SNP, Plaid agreement might be a more likely outcome than a Farage victory.
 
cookiemonster

cookiemonster

Veteran
Location
Far away from the asylum
https://findoutnow.co.uk/how-it-works/

Have look at their page. The 'Choose your Audience' part is quite the red flag and cannot be taken as a proper, weighted poll.
 
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Psamathe

Well-Known Member
As I understand it Reform is a private company with shareholders whereas all other political parties are unincorporated associations. Under our capitalist system shareholder owned companies are obliged to act in the interests of their shareholders ie to maximise the returns for their shareholders. So, were Mr Farage to be elected PM we would have a private company running the country working only for the interests of its shareholders (rather than for the population). Assuming this is the case (ie that my understanding is broadly correct) then even now elected Reform MPs are in effect agents for Reform UK Party Limited and are thus obliged to act in the interests of Reform UK Party Limited shareholders rather than in the interests of their constituents.

If my understanding is correct, and please do correct me if I've got the wrong end of one or more sticks, don't think this is how Parliament should be operating.

Ian
 
E

ebikeerwidnes

Senior Member
monkers said:
Maybe unfair of me to give you another ''below the belt'' comment Andy, but I believe you are also somewhat premature. Maybe your wife believes you when you say a three minute poling session is a guarantee of satisfaction?

The poll from the shopping polling company 'NowFindOut' is one I'd not previously heard of. To claim that with no to little prior experiencein election polling means that they have 2000 contributors who represent a balance of public opinion is maybe a bit far fetched.

Second point, raw polls do not necessarily correlate with the number of seats won. This is known to all political parties who run campaigns targeting certain seats and not others -hence the attack on the 'red walls' in the 2019 GE.

Third point is we know this is the case, since changes in the popular vote do not correlate with the number of seats won.

In other words, even if Reform were to win 26% of the vote in any forthcoming election, this is doubtful that this would translate into enough seats to win an election. A Reform / Tory coalition or supply and confidence agreement might seem feasible, but you have to ask yourself just how feasible.

If you really want to play at fantasy thinking, you might recognise that the most likely outcome might be a hung parliament. In which case, theoretically at least, a Lib.Dem, Greens, SNP, Plaid agreement might be a more likely outcome than a Farage victory.
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There is also the point that parties time their campaigns to peak at the best point

which would include just at the start of the voting for an election

no party is currently campaigning for votes and the government is, as is normal, getting the hard stuff done early which will form the foundations and then the stuff that produces the result that people want will come later - timed to produce results that people notice just before they vote

I seem to remember Reform (the company) having a campaign recently and Farage has been on the telly more than the damn newsreaders so they current popularity is not based on a proper platform
It is like (looks at forum title) having a bike race and shouting that the winner is Fred Bloggs because he is in the lead after 100 km
then Pog wakes up and passes everyone with 5km to go and wins at the finish line at 200km followed by the peloton and poor old Fred gets passed at 30 km to go and ends up finishing last
 
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