Badenoch's (Lack Of) Vision Quest

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Pblakeney

Shaman
Sorry, but here's Dan Neidle demolishing the maths of the Tories' IHT proposal. Various people pointing out that there will be a strong incentive for older people to divert any savings they might have into buying bigger properties, rather than downsizing and getting much higher liabilities for IHT as a result.

https://taxpolicy.org.uk/2026/10/08/conservatives-inheritance-tax-family-home-cost/

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Look on the bright side, there will be less demand for smaller houses.
I've never understood the clamour for oldies to downsize as they'll just out-price first time buyers, leading to an even bigger problem.
 

Dorset Boy

Über Member
... but ... but ... but Kemi is brilliant, high IQ and gets everything right where everybody else gets everything wrong (at least that's what she keeps telling us and expects us all to believe).

But thinking through a policy? that would be a first.

You mean just like Rachel and Kier thought through the Family Farm Tax, VAT on school fees and whacking up employer NI whilst lowering the threshold?
 
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Psamathe

Psamathe

Squire
... but ... but ... but Kemi is brilliant, high IQ and gets everything right where everybody else gets everything wrong (at least that's what she keeps telling us and expects us all to believe).

But thinking through a policy? that would be a first.
You mean just like Rachel and Kier thought through the Family Farm Tax, VAT on school fees and whacking up employer NI whilst lowering the threshold?
Yes. But Ms Badenoch seems a lot worse when it comes to her telling us about her brilliance eg her claims about her being offered a scholarship to a prestigious US University and then the University told us they'd never even had the course, no records of any scholarship offer and don't offer such scholarships.

But this is a thread about Ms Badenoch rather than Starmer/Reeves.

But as you say (maybe broadening a bit) the politicians we get to chose between don't inspire confidence. Only ones I'd vote for are unproven so might not be any better were they to get senior roles.
 

Beebo

Legendary Member
Sorry, but here's Dan Neidle demolishing the maths of the Tories' IHT proposal. Various people pointing out that there will be a strong incentive for older people to divert any savings they might have into buying bigger properties, rather than downsizing and getting much higher liabilities for IHT as a result.

https://taxpolicy.org.uk/2026/10/08/conservatives-inheritance-tax-family-home-cost/

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He’s been reading my posts.
I made the same comment a couple of days ago.

But protecting the family home will have unintended consequences. Suddenly anyone with a bit money will be buying £2million houses to cover off IHT losses.
And anyone like my elderly parents would be crazy to down size to a smaller, cheaper house.
 

Ian H

Pharaoh
You mean just like Rachel and Kier thought through the Family Farm Tax, VAT on school fees and whacking up employer NI whilst lowering the threshold?

IHT on farmland seems to be working. Land is reducing in price and actual farmers are starting to buy again.

VAT on school fees is obviously not quite as good as abolishing then, but it's a start.
 

Dorset Boy

Über Member
IHT on farmland seems to be working. Land is reducing in price and actual farmers are starting to buy again.

VAT on school fees is obviously not quite as good as abolishing then, but it's a start.

An extra 40,000 having to be educated by the State, and associated additional costs to the state.......

Politics of envy. Compare it with the Australian attitude to private education which they see as a big saving to the state.
 

briantrumpet

Timewaster
Politics of envy.

Call it that if you like, but that's one thing Starmer did put in the manifesto, got a huge majority on that manifesto, and (for once) actually did what he said.

I'm sure you're aware that state schools will be closing anyway, as a result of pretty dramatic decline in school-age children, so one would expect some private schools to close too, even without the change in VAT status.
 

Dorset Boy

Über Member
If you take the broader view that 'households' includes surviving family and offspring then that's exactly where it does go.

That's a pretty broad definition of household given the beneficiaries of the inheritance almost certain are not part of the same household as the deceased in the vast majority of cases.
The most common age to receive an inheritance in the UK is 55 to 64 years old, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) so they're not even pensioners themselves.
 

Dorset Boy

Über Member
Call it that if you like, but that's one thing Starmer did put in the manifesto, got a huge majority on that manifesto, and (for once) actually did what he said.

I'm sure you're aware that state schools will be closing anyway, as a result of pretty dramatic decline in school-age children, so one would expect some private schools to close too, even without the change in VAT status.

Are you suggesting that even with immigration the population of school age kids is going to fall? Evidence?

It's also widely accepted that the 40,000 fall in numbers being privately educated THIS YEAR is down to the VAT change couple with the employer NI changes, and not as a result of something that may be happening in a few years time.

And yoyu clearly made some sort of living off that sector, something your younger colleagues are going to be less able to do as a result of the VAT change.
 

briantrumpet

Timewaster
Are you suggesting that even with immigration the population of school age kids is going to fall? Evidence?

It's also widely accepted that the 40,000 fall in numbers being privately educated THIS YEAR is down to the VAT change couple with the employer NI changes, and not as a result of something that may be happening in a few years time.

And yoyu clearly made some sort of living off that sector, something your younger colleagues are going to be less able to do as a result of the VAT change.

https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/national-pupil-projections/2026

"In 2026, the actual population in state-funded schools[1] (opens in a new tab) was 7,809,000. By 2031, the population is projected to decrease by 726,000 (9.3%) to 7,082,000."

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Yes, I worked at a good private school (which, incidentally, has managed to maintain numbers so far). But they, and the whole education sector, are going to have to adjust to fewer pupils. I don't know if you've noticed, but the university sector is in even greater turmoil. Education is not a comfortable place to be at the moment.

As I say, call it the 'politics of envy' if you want to, but the electorate voted for the manifesto that explicitly included the change. No doubt you'd be complaining if they'd done it without it being a manifesto pledge, or if they weren't doing something that they promised.
 
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Rusty Nails

Country Member
That's a pretty broad definition of household given the beneficiaries of the inheritance almost certain are not part of the same household as the deceased in the vast majority of cases.
The most common age to receive an inheritance in the UK is 55 to 64 years old, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) so they're not even pensioners themselves.

You are right, of course, with your narrow, pedantic definition of household, but given that the benefits of IHT cuts are always the beneficiaries your explanation implies that no-one can benefit from IHT reductions unless 'household' is given the broader, more sensible definition.

The argument that the benefits are felt by the richest pensioner households therefore stands whether the beneficiaries are pensioners or not. Most people who leave wills (not all, obviously) do so to benefit their families rather than themselves.
 
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