It did start in the 1st term but that's because we're much cleverer.
I think it started before he'd officially announced he was running and it was just a wild rumour with people laughing at the very idea. That said, his first term did very little compared to this time around. The most notable thing before the attempted coup when he lost in 2020 was his suggestion to drink bleach to get ride of Covid (and the much vaunted wall Mexico was going to build for him that never happened). This second term is proving far more dangerous and it feels like the news could be renamed "What's The Orange Idiot Done Today?"
Trump clearly further targeting LA for terrorising the population. I suspect he's looking for ways to effectively 'occupy' LA under the guise of some sort of security emergency.
https://bsky.app/profile/melbuer.bsky.social/post/3ltfdts34x22b
I suspect you are correct. If successful then SF or similar is next. Who thought that the movie Civil War could be a prediction?
Somebody looked at a possible future that people thought was ridiculous at the time of making.