EU & Brexit Bunker

[Dorset Boy]

Why do you think (as you say) *all* the studies say this? Are they all wrong?

Absolutely they are all wrong - they make assumptions, most of which are wrong and therefore the output is wrong.
They may be (are) right at a high level, but the quantification of the figure will always be wrong.

 

[briantrumpet]

Absolutely they are all wrong - they make assumptions, most of which are wrong and therefore the output is wrong.
They may be (are) right at a high level, but the quantification of the figure will always be wrong.

Apologies if I believe several reports by international expert bodies rather than someone on the internet (albeit on NCAP).

 

[Dorset Boy]

Apologies if I believe several reports by international expert bodies rather than someone on the internet (albeit on NCAP).

Do you not understand how modelling of anything economic or cash flow forecasts works?
You make assumptions. Most of those assumptions will be proved wrong, therefore the output is wrong.

As I say, the overall conclusion may well be right, but the actual figure is guess work.

 

[briantrumpet]

Do you not understand how modelling of anything economic or cash flow forecasts works?
You make assumptions. Most of those assumptions will be proved wrong, therefore the output is wrong.

As I say, the overall conclusion may well be right, but the actual figure is guess work.

No, I don't, which is why I'm more likely to trust international bodies and experts rather than someone on the internet.

 

[bobzmyunkle]

Most of those assumptions will be proved wrong

If that's true, should we conclude that economic modelling is a waste of time? Or the person doing the modelling is a bit useless?

 

[Dorset Boy]

If that's true, should we conclude that economic modelling is a waste of time? Or the person doing the modelling is a bit useless?

It's not a waste of time, but you have to understand the limitations of the output produced.

That is what I am trying to explain to Brian, but he refuses to want to listen or understand that there are limitations and errors, no matter how erstwhile to organisation making those assumptions.

 

[bobzmyunkle]

Are you an expert on Ireland economic history? I'm certainly not.
However, their cutting of corporation tax rates attracted a number of large companies to place their European HQs there and was a major factor in the 'Celtic Tiger' at the time, which saw net immigration for the first time in hundreds of years, rather than emigration.
Clearly Ireland became a more attractive place to live and work.
They were then badly impacted by the 2008-09 financial crash.

Were we discussing Ireland's economic history before you brought it up after claiming you have no idea?

 

[bobzmyunkle]

he refuses to want to listen or understand that there are limitations and errors

Most of those assumptions will be proved wrong

Quite serious limitations then?

 

[briantrumpet]

It's not a waste of time, but you have to understand the limitations of the output produced.

That is what I am trying to explain to Brian, but he refuses to want to listen or understand that there are limitations and errors, no matter how erstwhile to organisation making those assumptions.

I assume that there are also similar limitations on climate change predictions. But once they all start pointing in the same direction, climate change denial gets trickier.

 

[Ian H]

I assume that there are also similar limitations on climate change predictions. But once they all start pointing in the same direction, climate change denial gets trickier.

You just have to accept that DB is a superior being, and that you're lucky that he deigns to correct your errors in such a benignly patronising way.

 

[C R]

I assume that there are also similar limitations on climate change predictions. But once they all start pointing in the same direction, climate change denial gets trickier.

Not really, the physical basis for climate models is not in dispute, i.e. we know how physical systems behave, the approximations come in to be able to solve the equations in a reasonable time.

Economic models are based on much less settled ground. There's no equivalent to the laws of thermodynamics in economics modelling.

 

[Pross]

Are you an expert on Ireland economic history? I'm certainly not.
However, their cutting of corporation tax rates attracted a number of large companies to place their European HQs there and was a major factor in the 'Celtic Tiger' at the time, which saw net immigration for the first time in hundreds of years, rather than emigration.
Clearly Ireland became a more attractive place to live and work.
They were then badly impacted by the 2008-09 financial crash.

But immigration is bad

 

[Ian H]

Are you an expert on Ireland economic history? I'm certainly not.
However, their cutting of corporation tax rates attracted a number of large companies to place their European HQs there and was a major factor in the 'Celtic Tiger' at the time, which saw net immigration for the first time in hundreds of years, rather than emigration.
Clearly Ireland became a more attractive place to live and work.
They were then badly impacted by the 2008-09 financial crash.

Corporate tax and personal tax are two different things.

 

[briantrumpet]

Corporate tax and personal tax are two different things.

Are you an expert?

 

[Ian H]

Are you an expert?

Don't be so patronising.