Gulf War No.37: Iranistan

[Moodyman]

For what matters the regime hasn't really changed, the dominant faction may have, but the regime structures remain as they were.

If anything, the remaining regime is hardened. Khameini senior was deemed a pragmatic moderating force. There were many in the administration who did not want to negotiate a nuclear deal. Some of those are now talking of abandoning the fatwa (banning nuclear weapons) to ensure they’re not attacked again.

 

[C R]

Yup! The personnel have changed but the regime remains.
Donnie has achieved absolutely nothing positive, but mass destruction of lives, property, infrastructure and economy.

And set back the prospects of the internal opposition by many years, and given wings to a rotten to the core external opposition that would be just as bad as the current lot if they got into power. Lots to celebrate by Netanyahu.

 

[TailWindHome]

The Iranian demands.

To which Trump has responded with a ceasefire

 

[Psamathe]

The Israeli’s ain’t signing up to any peace plan. Netanyahu wants the Lebanon flattened like Gaza, but he wants the orange idiot in the White House along for the ride.
By continuing to attack Lebanon, he will pick away at the plaster holding this treaty together, in the hope that he can drag the US back into the conflict, if Iran counters.

My suspicion, Trump probably regrets having listened to Netanyahu and creating the disaster of his war fighting Iran (even Trūmp must recognise the disaster even if he can't admit it even to himself). Thus I suspect Trūmp will use the next 2 weeks and negotiations to establist the lie about him having "won". He thus won't want Netanyahu dragging him back into the war or breaking the ceasefire.

And Trūmp has more power over Netanyahu that he seems prepared to use. My understanding (open to correction) is that Israel is very dependent on US arms. Given how Israel's perception across US electorate has badly deteriorated makes it easier for Trūmp to take a step back. So all Trūmp has to do is privately tell Netanyahu to honour the ceasefire and any subsequent agreements or no more US arms.

 

[First Aspect]

The Iranian demands.

To which Trump has responded with a ceasefire

View attachment 14415

I am going out on a limb here, but I think he might be a bit of a blagger.

Like one of those guys at work, when you ask if they have done that thing by the deadline, and they assure you they have even though you can tell from the micro pause that they have no idea about either the thing or any deadline.

 

[C R]

My suspicion, Trump probably regrets having listened to Netanyahu and creating the disaster of his war fighting Iran (even Trūmp must recognise the disaster even if he can't admit it even to himself). Thus I suspect Trūmp will use the next 2 weeks and negotiations to establist the lie about him having "won". He thus won't want Netanyahu dragging him back into the war or breaking the ceasefire.

And Trūmp has more power over Netanyahu that he seems prepared to use. My understanding (open to correction) is that Israel is very dependent on US arms. Given how Israel's perception across US electorate has badly deteriorated makes it easier for Trūmp to take a step back. So all Trūmp has to do is privately tell Netanyahu to honour the ceasefire and any subsequent agreements or no more US arms.

Netanyahu will honour any Iran related cease fire (including Lebanon) as much as they're honouring the one in Gaza.

 

[Ian H]

 

[CXRAndy]

Absolutely. The Ayatollah Khomeini is dead and has been replaced by the Ayatollah Khomeini - rumoured to be more hardline than his dad.

Best reports, hes in a coma

Rest say he's a vegetable

 

[CXRAndy]

Gives UK chance to repair its only working war ship, just in time for resumed conflict

 

[Pblakeney]

My suspicion, Trump probably regrets having listened to Netanyahu and creating the disaster of his war fighting Iran (even Trūmp must recognise the disaster even if he can't admit it even to himself). Thus I suspect Trūmp will use the next 2 weeks and negotiations to establist the lie about him having "won". He thus won't want Netanyahu dragging him back into the war or breaking the ceasefire.

And Trūmp has more power over Netanyahu that he seems prepared to use. My understanding (open to correction) is that Israel is very dependent on US arms. Given how Israel's perception across US electorate has badly deteriorated makes it easier for Trūmp to take a step back. So all Trūmp has to do is privately tell Netanyahu to honour the ceasefire and any subsequent agreements or no more US arms.

That is all sensible and logical.
Which is precisely why it won't happen.

 

[Pblakeney]

The Iranian demands.

To which Trump has responded with a ceasefire

View attachment 14415

It's a non-starter. There will be another u-turn today by my estimation.

 

[dutchguylivingintheuk]

The Iranian demands.

To which Trump has responded with a ceasefire

You know that is false information right?the only thing correct in that statement are the Iranian demands after negotiating they agreed on a ceasefire to negotiate, that means nothing in terms of agree-ing to any Iranian terms. It does mean that after these two weeks the second US Carrier strike group has arrived. so who's in the stronger position?

 

[Rusty Nails]

You do realise regime change has happened? Don’t listen to the MSM.

Do you again have someone on the inside keeping you informed, like you did in Ukraine (or was it Russia) ?

 

[CXRAndy]

Lots of supposition. Won't know until either there is lasting ceasefire announcements or conflict starts again.

 

[Milzy]

My suspicion, Trump probably regrets having listened to Netanyahu and creating the disaster of his war fighting Iran (even Trūmp must recognise the disaster even if he can't admit it even to himself). Thus I suspect Trūmp will use the next 2 weeks and negotiations to establist the lie about him having "won". He thus won't want Netanyahu dragging him back into the war or breaking the ceasefire.

And Trūmp has more power over Netanyahu that he seems prepared to use. My understanding (open to correction) is that Israel is very dependent on US arms. Given how Israel's perception across US electorate has badly deteriorated makes it easier for Trūmp to take a step back. So all Trūmp has to do is privately tell Netanyahu to honour the ceasefire and any subsequent agreements or no more US arms.

It’s up to Netanyahu, he owns Trump.