Gulf War No.37: Iranistan

[Psamathe]

Iran has closed the strait again.
But never fear Witkoff and Kushner on the case…….

Pity but maybe mainly the reason. Can't say I'm surprised given the behaviour of Israel.

Maybe I'm being overly pessimistic but I can't see it staying open for long or reliably until somebody (Trûmp) gets Netanyahu/Israel to stop killing people.

 

[Pblakeney]

Pity but maybe mainly the reason. Can't say I'm surprised given the behaviour of Israel.

Maybe I'm being overly pessimistic but I can't see it staying open for long or reliably until somebody (Trûmp) gets Netanyahu/Israel to stop killing people.

This is precisely why the whole “peace deal” was a nonsense from the start.
Netanyahu does not want peace.

 

[All uphill]

This is precisely why the whole “peace deal” was a nonsense from the start.
Netanyahu does not want peace.

Imo Trump doesn't have much control over Netanyahu, and Iran doesn't have much control over Hezbollah.

My uninformed view is that Iran knows that Trump is desperate to "move on" from this conflict and that they can push him to even further concessions.

 

[Psamathe]

To me I can't see any way Israel can ever live in peace until it makes peace. Imprisonment without trial, human rights violations, ignoring International Law, mass killing of innocent civilians, obliterating communities, etc. is never going to even move towards peace.

Often said (by those who know better than me) that all wars end through diplomacy but Israel just seems to keep moving ever further from even considering diplomacy, just ever more killing innocent civilians (which must be a strong recruitment push for the opposing force).

 

[UglyWithaSidePart]

Dissolution of Israel's parliament could still lead to Bibby being tried for war crimes. We live in hope.

 

[Psamathe]

Imo Trump doesn't have much control over Netanyahu, and Iran doesn't have much control over Hezbollah.

No idea about Iranian control but my understanding is that Israel is very very dependent on the US for munitions. So I assume Trúmp can just say "next attack into Lebanon and all munitions supply stops". He's in effect stopped some munitions supply to UK where ordered (UK pays RRP) munitions have not been delivered because US wanted them for itself.

 

[dutchguylivingintheuk]

Imo Trump doesn't have much control over Netanyahu, and Iran doesn't have much control over Hezbollah.

My uninformed view is that Iran knows that Trump is desperate to "move on" from this conflict and that they can push him to even further concessions.

I agree Trump does want to move on, Iran has more control of it's proxies as suggested given the number of special IRGC "Advisors" being killed in libanon.

To me I can't see any way Israel can ever live in peace until it makes peace. Imprisonment without trial, human rights violations, ignoring International Law, mass killing of innocent civilians, obliterating communities, etc. is never going to even move towards peace.

Often said (by those who know better than me) that all wars end through diplomacy but Israel just seems to keep moving ever further from even considering diplomacy, just ever more killing innocent civilians (which must be a strong recruitment push for the opposing force).

Yes, but Palestina / Gaza has Hamas and before that the PLO / arafat they where close just before Rabin was killed, and spoiler the list of human right violations, ignored international law, mass killing, obliterating communities is not any better on the other side. something that should become clear if Palestina is recognized as a county but so fa those in the fron of the line to accuse Isreal didn't feel the same urge to accuse Palestina now some countries recognize it as a country.

No idea about Iranian control but my understanding is that Israel is very very dependent on the US for munitions. So I assume Trúmp can just say "next attack into Lebanon and all munitions supply stops". He's in effect stopped some munitions supply to UK where ordered (UK pays RRP) munitions have not been delivered because US wanted them for itself.

unless you want a repeat of 7 October that is not the best way. Apart from the fact you have something called stockpiles and Isreal also produces weapons there are an array of weapons that simply can't work anymore of Isreal returns the favor.

 

[Pblakeney]

I see that the US is obliterating Iran's obliterated military, again.

 

[Beebo]

I just had a meeting with an Iranian who left in 1976.
He is convinced that the new leader is already dead. The US must have intelligence about his status. Why is this not being given more airtime? No one has seen or heard him since the initial attack.
He was also very much on the side of Trump, on the basis that your enemies enemy is your friend.

 

[Pblakeney]

I just had a meeting with an Iranian who left in 1976.
He is convinced that the new leader is already dead. The US must have intelligence about his status. Why is this not being given more airtime? No one has seen or heard him since the initial attack.
He was also very much on the side of Trump, on the basis that your enemies enemy is your friend.

I'm confused by the bold bit. Who are the enemies?
The dead part would not be surprising in the slightest.

 

[Beebo]

I'm confused by the bold bit. Who are the enemies?
The dead part would not be surprising in the slightest.

He hates the current regime in Iran.

 

[Pblakeney]

He hates the current regime in Iran.

Ah! So the guy you met is on the side of Donnie. That makes more sense.
I get the feeling that Iran is totally divided. You are either one side or the other, but that is just an impression; not fact.

 

[C R]

Ah! So the guy you met is on the side of Donnie. That makes more sense.
I get the feeling that Iran is totally divided. You are either one side or the other, but that is just an impression; not fact.

That's largely correct, but more like three groups

* Those who support the mullahs
* Those who support Pahlavi and Trump
* Those who support the internal opposition and want a democratic transition

Note that the Pahlavi lot marched with Yaxley Lennon in London.

 

[Beebo]

This ceasefire is going well.

 

[Pblakeney]

This ceasefire is going well.

It is going as well as expected.
Still, as long as the Strait is open...