Israel / Palestine

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matticus

Guru
Does this sound like they've made no progress in 30 years? That the monitoring is a reliable safety measure against a dangerous regime arming themselves with terrifying weaponry?

https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/06/1164291

12 June 2025 Peace and Security
The UN-backed atomic watchdog passed a resolution on Thursday declaring that Iran is not complying with its obligations regarding nuclear non-proliferation.

The development follows serious warnings from the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) earlier this week that inspectors have been unable to determine whether Iran’s nuclear programme was “exclusively peaceful” – as per the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal from which the United States subsequently withdrew.

A fresh round of negotiations between Washington and Tehran is slated to begin on Saturday in Oman, according to news reports, amid heightened geopolitical tensions linked to rumours of an impending Israeli attack on Iran.

Following Thursday’s resolution vote by the IAEA’s board of governors – which passed by a vote of 19 for, three against and 11 abstentions - Iran’s atomic energy body reportedly announced plans to open a new uranium enrichment plant and increase production of enriched fissile material.

Growing concerns
The draft for Thursday’s resolution highlights serious and growing concerns since at least 2019 that Iran had failed to cooperate fully with the UN agency’s inspectors.

Tehran has “repeatedly” been unable to explain and demonstrate that its nuclear material was not being diverted for further enrichment for military use, the draft text maintains.

Iran has also failed to provide the UN agency with “technically credible explanations for the presence of [man-made] uranium particles” at undeclared locations in Varamin, Marivan and Turquzabad, it continues.

“Unfortunately, Iran has repeatedly either not answered, or not provided technically credible answers to, the agency’s questions,” IAEA chief Grossi said on Monday. “It has also sought to sanitize the locations, which has impeded Agency verification activities.”

According to Mr. Grossi, Tehran has stockpiled 400 kilogrammes of highly enriched uranium.

“Given the potential proliferation implications, the agency cannot ignore [this],” he told the UN agency’s governing board on Monday.
 
He has been just as brutal about Hamas and Hezbollah in many of his articles for the Byline Times.
Yes but he is criticizing the BBC (rightly so in my view) and their reporting in regards to Israel, to which i can say agreed, but similarly for their coverage on Hamas and all the many fractions. Hell i don't think much of the poeple who only watch BBC even know how fragmented Gaza really is, no wonder but if you are an government funded news organization like the BBC the onus should be on them to provide accurate and comprehensive information.

Maybe becasue they are experts on Iran not on Israel. That said people have been aware of Netanyahu's wishes to attack Iran for years (he's been saying it in public often enough so it comes down to when rather than if and that starts bringing in factors like US/Trump loss of influence, Putin demonstrating that there are no consequences from ignoring Trump, etc. so predictions about Israel attacking Iran come down more to a sweepsteak on the day/hour than.
Yes, i'm also not saying it is surprising Isreal attacked Iran, i say it is surprising an potentially an sign on the wall in terms off more things happening the background how far their first attack went, with drones attacking from inside Iran etc. taking out multiple high-ranked officers, i don't think any expert predicted that, just as the pager thing on Hezbollah.
But they are experts on Iran, many Iranian themselves (eg BBC Monitoring) so language, country, etc. all well known to them.

Ian
i'm not an Iran expert, but looking at things from the outside it seems like the first signs of an regime crumbling, and/or potentially the hezbollah pagers where not the only rigged eletronics Isreali's managed to sell to the military, would be something riht? if it turns out they where able to listen in on every bit of information because Iran bought their communications devices.


There was an accord in place and Iran was being monitored. Even up until a week ago all evidence was that they don't have weapons.
What has changed since, other than Netanyahu unilaterally deciding to attack?
There is an difference between what they(Iran says and what they might have. And all evidence was that they where trying to make these weapons, the disputed part seems to be whether they are ready to make one now or with a few years.
 
i'm not an Iran expert, but looking at things from the outside it seems like the first signs of an regime crumbling

There's stuff on social media showing Iranians massing in the streets, women throwing off their hijabs; not demonstrations as such I'd say, but signs of anti government public unrest again. It would be wonderful if it did all crumble quickly and peacefully but so often regime change seems to bring something that's not much better, in the short term anyway, and often at a high human cost.
 

C R

Guru
There's stuff on social media showing Iranians massing in the streets, women throwing off their hijabs; not demonstrations as such I'd say, but signs of anti government public unrest again. It would be wonderful if it did all crumble quickly and peacefully but so often regime change seems to bring something that's not much better, in the short term anyway, and often at a high human cost.
Re the hejab, I know from reliable sources that enforcement in most urban areas has been symbolic for some time. Those images may be from the Zan, Zendeghi, Azadi protests and being repurposed.
 

Pblakeney

Well-Known Member
Does this sound like they've made no progress in 30 years? That the monitoring is a reliable safety measure against a dangerous regime arming themselves with terrifying weaponry?

"A fresh round of negotiations between Washington and Tehran is slated to begin on Saturday in Oman, according to news reports, amid heightened geopolitical tensions linked to rumours of an impending Israeli attack on Iran.
Following Thursday’s resolution vote by the IAEA’s board of governors – which passed by a vote of 19 for, three against and 11 abstentions - Iran’s atomic energy body reportedly announced plans to open a new uranium enrichment plant and increase production of enriched fissile material."

Those talks were scuppered by Netanyahu sending in the bombers. Bombers which will only increase Irans quest for nuclear weapons.
Best method is talks followed by sanctions if necessary. Bombs are not the solution.
 
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matticus

Guru
Those talks were scuppered by Netanyahu sending in the bombers. Bombers which will only increase Irans quest for nuclear weapons.
Best method is talks followed by sanctions if necessary. Bombs are not the solution.

I am not endorsing Israeli* actions here: I was commenting on whether the Iranian nukes are a real threat. It was stated there have been false alarums (raised by Net*nyahu) for 30 years; I pointed out that Iran has been trying to beat the nuclear arms limitations for 30 years.

*nor I am endorsing Trump's unique brand of diplomacy.
 

C R

Guru
I am not endorsing Israeli* actions here: I was commenting on whether the Iranian nukes are a real threat. It was stated there have been false alarums (raised by Net*nyahu) for 30 years; I pointed out that Iran has been trying to beat the nuclear arms limitations for 30 years.

*nor I am endorsing Trump's unique brand of diplomacy.

They're not because they don't exist.
 
Those talks were scuppered by Netanyahu sending in the bombers. Bombers which will only increase Irans quest for nuclear weapons.
Best method is talks followed by sanctions if necessary. Bombs are not the solution.
Maybe you missed the part where it said they have been trying to deal with Iran for 30 years a bit rich to now claim it's all down to Netanyahu doesn't it? Sure Netanyahu doesn't have much to lose, he seems to be on a quest to take down his arch enemies before going down himself.
But that doesn't mean we can ignore Iran's attitude for the past years, diplomacy is like toilet paper for this regime maybe the pressure of Isreal destroying what's left of their rocket launchers and air defence and the pressure of the US potentially joining the war is enough to finally make an deal for them that they will keep. and or make the regime crumble alltogether. (alltough Aurorasaab made and indeed excellent point that you never know what you get back.)
 

Psamathe

Über Member
You'd be an idiot to ignore their intent. And to say they're a long way off, no need to act yet ... again, idiot.
I agree. I was probably too brief as when I say "... it's not about their intent" I'm thinking in terms of Israel's preemptive attacks. I believe the best, probably only way to stop them is through a negotiated agreement, one that sees benefits for both sides and thus they are ahppy about (rather then being bullied into).

Ian
 

Psamathe

Über Member
Maybe you missed the part where it said they have been trying to deal with Iran for 30 years a bit rich to now claim it's all down to Netanyahu doesn't it?
There was a deal. Widely reported that Netanhayu was very strongly lobbying Trump to tear-up the deal and Trump obliged.

All knowledgeable commentators I've seen interviewed are saying that whilst not perfect, had that deal remained in place Iran would not be anything like where they are now down the nuclear weapons path.

Ian
 
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There was a deal. Widely reported that Netanhayu was very strongly lobbying Trump to tear-up the deal and Trump obliged.

All knowledgeable commentators I've seen interviewed are saying that whilst not perfect, had that deal remained in place Iran would not be anything like where they are now down the nuclear weapons path.

Ian
The part you leave out is that the UN backed atomic watchdog said they did not get enough acces to ensure the deals was adhered too properly (as somebody else linked a article too a few pages back when you recycled the same argument)
It's like some sketchy dude sells you 10 bicycles with an internal geared hub, 11 speed shimano, you see from looking it them it's problably not what your supposed to get because they look more like 7 or even 3 speeds, but the seller doesn;t allow you to check, if you say ''yeah i had a deal you would be hurt financially'' because if it are indeed 3 speeds instead of 11 the market value and driving comfort just tanked.
So why are you defending an deal that was in fact not a deal?.. (a bit what Obama did it was long before Trump 1 clear Iran was not intending on commiting)
 
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