It's a rout - is the old order on the way out?

[Stevo 666]

I don't know what you are talking about. I don't think you know either.

Well I have no reason to believe anything you say on this forum...

 

[monkers]

Well I have no reason to believe anything you say on this forum

Well I have no reason to believe anything you say on this forum...

I still have no idea what question you think I have left unanswered.

I shall leave the willy waving to you and your other spineless schoolboy cyberbullying friends. You and CXR shithead can carry on outbidding each other with your monopoly money.

 

[Stevo 666]

I still have no idea what question you think I have left unanswered.

I shall leave the willy waving to you and your other spineless schoolboy cyberbullying friends. You and CXR shithead can carry on outbidding each other with your monopoly money.

Have another read then. Then try a polite reply, you might get better reactions compared to coming across like Millie Tant from Viz

 

[monkers]

Have another read then. Then try a polite reply, you might get better reactions compared to coming across like Millie Tant from Viz

No, we are finished.

 

[Stevo 666]

No, we are finished.

OK Millie, no worries.

 

[monkers]

Interesting.

The results? Last week, the polling company Thinks Insight & Strategy found that 52% of those who voted Labour in the 2024 general election are considering switching to the Liberal Democrats or the Greens. That’s more than twice as many as might migrate to Reform UK. The research group Persuasion UK estimates that Labour could lose 250 seats as a result of this flight to more progressive parties (again, more than twice as many as it could lose through voters shifting to Reform).

Figures compiled by the progressive thinktank Compass show that Labour would lose its majority on just a 6% swing. Already, while it won a massive majority on a measly 34% vote at the election, it now polls at just 22%.

Labour’s strategy is incomprehensible. Experience from the rest of Europe shows that when centrist parties adopt far-right rhetoric and policies, they empower the far right while shedding their own supporters.

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...itain-two-party-system-election-labour-reform

 

[monkers]

Non-voters shown to be having the biggest influence on voting intentions.

 

[Psamathe]

Non-voters shown to be having the biggest influence on voting intentions.


View attachment 8468

Interesting but I suspect likely to change. Plus assessing how nationwide vote estimates translate into MPs with our First Past The Post system could skew everything further.

Surprising number of Labour switching direct to Conservative, maybe helped that Labour are not more of a right wing party.

eg I wonder if lower numbers migrating away from the Conservatives might be as they are still giving their leader "more time" but that will run out and a lot might change. But then at some point I suspect there will be a leadership change and them what happens would depend on who takes over (and maybe how bored Farange has got with UK politics preferring US).

Ian

 

[Beebo]

Non-voters shown to be having the biggest influence on voting intentions.


View attachment 8468

In a GE there is almost no point voting Green and voting LibDem only works in certain constituencies.
So I would expect tactical voting to any one but Reform from these individuals, who are probably more politically savvy than an average voter.

 

[monkers]

Interesting but I suspect likely to change. Plus assessing how nationwide vote estimates translate into MPs with our First Past The Post system could skew everything further.

Surprising number of Labour switching direct to Conservative, maybe helped that Labour are not more of a right wing party.

eg I wonder if lower numbers migrating away from the Conservatives might be as they are still giving their leader "more time" but that will run out and a lot might change. But then at some point I suspect there will be a leadership change and them what happens would depend on who takes over (and maybe how bored Farange has got with UK politics preferring US).

Ian

It's all a bit early, but interesting to observe the trend. Labour can not afford to be complacent.

I'm left wondering if you've made a typo? I see movement from Labour to Reform, but not to the Conservatives.

 

[Psamathe]

I'm left wondering if you've made a typo?

Yes. Typo. Also a "not" should be "now" ie Labour now more of a right wing party.

(on phone with horrible keyboard)
Ian

 

[monkers]

In a GE there is almost no point voting Green and voting LibDem only works in certain constituencies.
So I would expect tactical voting to any one but Reform from these individuals, who are probably more politically savvy than an average voter.

Farage fans are obedient to their hero.

 

[monkers]

Starmer will find some comfort when he is shown this ...

 

[First Aspect]

Yay, so Reform are in favour of raising income tax threshold to £20k, which is estimated to cost about £60Bn a year. Add that to the support for winter fuel payments and roving the 2 child cap.

This is a coherent suite of policies.

 

[Ian H]

Yay, so Reform are in favour of raising income tax threshold to £20k, which is estimated to cost about £60Bn a year. Add that to the support for winter fuel payments and roving the 2 child cap.

This is a coherent suite of policies.

At the moment they don't need coherent policies, just crowd-pleasers.