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Shortfall

Active Member
I'm revising my previous on this

I've zero concerns on the process to appoint Mandelson. There's nothing come to light that's any more than 'must have dones' and 'joining dots'

The PROCESS is ok and 'as described', as is Starmer and No.10s role

What I now think I've underestimated is the politics of the DECISION to appoint Mandelson and all the Labour infighting that it's a proxy for.
I don't think it makes any difference to the electorate but it's terminal within the party

Starmer goes before May Election 20%
Starmer goes after May Result 65%
Starner clings on to 'something else' happens 10%
Starmer leads Labour into next GE 5% and loses
Starmer leads Labour into next GE and goes as condition of coalition <1%
Starmer PM after next GE 0%

For me this whole business confirms a lot of the ideas I had about the murky way politics works. The PM wanted a truly despicable person to become our Ambassador to the US. When it predictably blew up in his face he stalled on the release of documents that would have revealed the decision making process. He asked the civil service to force through the appointment despite serious concerns being thrown up by the vetting and he ignored his own advisors who cautioned against making the appointment until the results of the vetting were known. He sacked the bloke he basically forced to nod Mandelson through despite all the red flags. Once Mandelson was in post The House and the public would have reasonably believed it was because he had passed the developed vetting that had in fact showed him to be a highly questionable pick. I think the public do care about this because yet again they are being taken for fools by unscrupulous politicians, except this time it's by one who promised to be the opposite and who was going to clean up politics. They now know that processes meant to prevent people like Peter Mandelson obtaining high office can be secretly subverted on the whim of the PM and I expect they'll show their disgust at the ballot box next month. I must admit that I'm also having to change my mind on the likely outcome, having believed last week that he would have had no choice but to fall on his sword. I'm not going to make a prediction except to say I think he'll climb on for as long as he possibly can, especially as there's no clear route to forcibly get rid of him.
 
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briantrumpet

Timewaster
I'm revising my previous on this

I've zero concerns on the process to appoint Mandelson. There's nothing come to light that's any more than 'must have dones' and 'joining dots'

The PROCESS is ok and 'as described', as is Starmer and No.10s role

What I now think I've underestimated is the politics of the DECISION to appoint Mandelson and all the Labour infighting that it's a proxy for.
I don't think it makes any difference to the electorate but it's terminal within the party

Starmer goes before May Election 20%
Starmer goes after May Result 65%
Starner clings on to 'something else' happens 10%
Starmer leads Labour into next GE 5% and loses
Starmer leads Labour into next GE and goes as condition of coalition <1%
Starmer PM after next GE 0%

I still think the McSweeney influence runs through all of this like through a stick of rock. I think your %ages are about right, and I think Starmer's left it waaaay too late to undo the damage of the Blue Labour/Reform Lite influence of McSweeney, the most obvious legacy being Mahmood, who thinks it electoraly wise to tell core Labour voters to fuck off.

But, as everyone else notes, it's not obvious who would replace Starmer - that seems to be his only strength at this point.
 
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briantrumpet

Timewaster
For me this whole business confirms a lot of the ideas I had about the murky way politics works. The PM wanted a truly despicable person to become our Ambassador to the US. When it predictably blew up in his face he stalled on the release of documents that would have revealed the decision making process. He asked the civil service to force through the appointment despite serious concerns being thrown up by the vetting and he ignored his own advisors who cautioned against making the appointment until the results of the vetting were known. He sacked the bloke he basically forced to nod Mandelson through despite all the red flags and The House and the public would then reasonably have believed that Peter Mandelson had passed the developed vetting that showed him in fact to be highly questionable. I think the public do care about this because yet again they are being taken for fools by unscrupulous politicians, except this time it's by one who promised to be the opposite and who was going to clean up politics. They now know that processes meant to prevent people like Peter Mandelson obtaining high office can be secretly subverted on the whim of the PM and I expect they'll show their disgust at the ballot box next month. I must admit that I'm also having to change my mind on the likely outcome, having believed last week that he would have had no choice but to call on his sword. I'm not going to make a prediction except to say I think he'll climb on for as long as he possibly can, especially as there's no clear route to forcibly get rid of him.

It's been as murky as a murky thing for ever, on both sides, the epitome of murk. More House of Cards (the Ian Richardson version) than Yes Minister. I think you'd have to look no further than the whipping system and its institutionalised blackmail to have your worst fears confirmed.
 

TailWindHome

Über Member
For me this whole business confirms a lot of the ideas I had about the murky way politics works. The PM wanted a truly despicable person to become our Ambassador to the US. When it predictably blew up in his face he stalled on the release of documents that would have revealed the decision making process. He asked the civil service to force through the appointment despite serious concerns being thrown up by the vetting and he ignored his own advisors who cautioned against making the appointment until the results of the vetting were known. He sacked the bloke he basically forced to nod Mandelson through despite all the red flags and The House and the public would then reasonably have believed that Peter Mandelson had passed the developed vetting that showed him in fact to be highly questionable. I think the public do care about this because yet again they are being taken for fools by unscrupulous politicians, except this time it's by one who promised to be the opposite and who was going to clean up politics. They now know that processes meant to prevent people like Peter Mandelson obtaining high office can be secretly subverted on the whim of the PM and I expect they'll show their disgust at the ballot box next month. I must admit that I'm also having to change my mind on the likely outcome, having believed last week that he would have had no choice but to fall on his sword. I'm not going to make a prediction except to say I think he'll climb on for as long as he possibly can, especially as there's no clear route to forcibly get rid of him.
The bits in bold you've made up to be angry at and are contrary to the evidence given
 

TailWindHome

Über Member
The McFadden has been deployed

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Shortfall

Active Member
The bits in bold you've made up to be angry at and are contrary to the evidence given

Olly Robbins referred to the constant pressure he was under to appoint Mandelson. McSweeney had previously instructed his predecessor to "Just fúcking approve it" so if it wasn't an explicit order from Starmer to force it through then Robbins knew it was implicit and there was no point trying to go against his master's bidding. You do seem to be allowing Starmer a lot of leeway here. Can I ask why?
 

bobzmyunkle

Veteran
While there is some truth in this, you're clinging to it to avoid admitting the truth

Starmer is a dud

It's quite possible the latter to be true and for Starmer to be merely a puppet for McSweeney et al.
 

briantrumpet

Timewaster
While there is some truth in this, you're clinging to it to avoid admitting the truth

Starmer is a dud

Both can be true. But I'll admit that I've been hoping – apparently mistakenly – that Starmer would eventually realise that the Blue Labour thing was simply Reform in the disguise of a red cape.
 
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TailWindHome

Über Member
You do seem to be allowing Starmer a lot of leeway here. Can I ask why?
It just seems like leeway because you're comparing it to a version constructed by 'joining the dots' and ignoring what Robbins actually said.

I paraphrase, ' Yes there was a lot if pressure but I did the vetting process properly and gave No10 my decision.
 

Shortfall

Active Member
It just seems like leeway because you're comparing it to a version constructed by 'joining the dots' and ignoring what Robbins actually said.

I paraphrase, ' Yes there was a lot if pressure but I did the vetting process properly and gave No10 my decision.

Yeah I don't have any criticism of Robbins who comes over as thoroughly decent and was just doing what was expected of him. I'm joining the dots that show that Starmer did whatever it took to install a thoroughly unscrupulous individual into a sensitive position and then basically attempted a cover up. That's what I think anyway and I suspect a lot of the voting public are left with the same impression and will deliver their verdict in May.
 
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Yeah I don't have any criticism of Robbins who comes over as thoroughly decent and was just doing what was expected of him. I'm joining the dots that show that Starmer did whatever it took to install a thoroughly unscrupulous individual into a sensitive position and then basically attempted a cover up. That's what I think anyway and I suspect most of the voting public are left with the same impression.

This is where the damage will have been done. Starmer has survived but is damaged goods (if he wasn't already before). And that will reflect badly on Labour at the next elections. Which is a good thing.
 
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