Potential Immigrants

[BoldonLad]

If the realistic prospect of drowning isn't sufficient then what do you propose that would work?
Practical, legal solutions only please. They are going to keep coming.

I am not advocating drowning, but, based on figures so far, the odds of drowning are not high. Possibly (although I haven't checked) not a lot higher than being killed in a motor accident in many countries.

oops, I see AuroraSaab has beaten me to it 😂

 

[PurplePenguin]

I'm not sure that bolded bit is correct or if it was 30 years ago it still is now.

However people with no route of return are a big problem both practically and in numbers terms and some get forms of leave to remain other than as Refugees.

It was correct 30 odd years ago. No idea if it is now as my source has long since retired, and you may be right that it has changed, but it's interesting to me how little else has really changed in the discussion since then though.

 

[midlandsgrimpeur]

Anybody is entitled to apply for asylum, but it's easier to get (or some type of residency or leave to remain, if not asylum) if you're already in the country. Especially if your own country won't take you back, eg Afghanistan and Iran.

You keep stating it is easier to remain here if you are already in the UK, where are you getting this from? Being here already has no bearing on the decision, you are either accepted as a genuine Asylum seeker or you are refused. Also, you cannot get residency or leave to remain as an Asylum Seeker, you have to work and fulfill multiple other criteria to access either of those, none of which people claiming Asylum can do.

 

[CXRAndy]

Have you been living under a rock.

Tens of thousands are arriving each year, probably less than 10 sent somewhere else.

 

[AuroraSaab]

You keep stating it is easier to remain here if you are already in the UK, where are you getting this from? Being here already has no bearing on the decision, you are either accepted as a genuine Asylum seeker or you are refused.

Once here if your application for asylum fails, and/or you've lived here long enough, you can apply for discretionary leave to remain and later indefinite leave to remain. This can apply to people who were trafficked here, or brought here as children, who would not qualify for asylum, but can also apply to those whose countries won't take them back and are still in the UK after a number of years. It applies to visa overstayers, not just asylum seekers.

If you can get here, and stay here, the chances of remaining here are going to be higher. (The lengthy asylum/appeal decision process adds to this obviously).

 

[CXRAndy]

How before Labour and the Tories announcement plan on indefinite leave to stay and benefits

 

[Pblakeney]

Once here if your application for asylum fails, and/or you've lived here long enough, you can apply for discretionary leave to remain and later indefinite leave to remain. This can apply to people who were trafficked here, or brought here as children, who would not qualify for asylum, but can also apply to those whose countries won't take them back and are still in the UK after a number of years. It applies to visa overstayers, not just asylum seekers.

If you can get here, and stay here, the chances of remaining here are going to be higher. (The lengthy asylum/appeal decision process adds to this obviously).

That wouldn't be the case if applications were processed quickly.
Our successive governments are failing us on that front.

 

[AuroraSaab]

Yes, the lengthy process is a huge part of the problem. Farage hasn't really thought through his ILR policy. Where is he sending the Afghans and Iranians whose asylum claim failed? Back to Greece or Italy where they first landed in the EU? Not practical and doesn't seem fair on those countries. What about those trafficked here or lured here as servants, often brought here in their teens? They might not qualify for asylum but have been here for years, completely exploited by pimps or employers. People are going to want some concrete evidence of how he's going to make any of his policies happen if he wants opinion polls to turn into general election votes. Until then it's just more 'We'll smash the gangs' sound bites.

 

[BoldonLad]

Yes, the lengthy process is a huge part of the problem. Farage hasn't really thought through his ILR policy. Where is he sending the Afghans and Iranians whose asylum claim failed? Back to Greece or Italy where they first landed in the EU? Not practical and doesn't seem fair on those countries. What about those trafficked here or lured here as servants, often brought here in their teens? They might not qualify for asylum but have been here for years, completely exploited by pimps or employers. People are going to want some concrete evidence of how he's going to make any of his policies happen if he wants opinion polls to turn into general election votes. Until then it's just more 'We'll smash the gangs' sound bites.

True

I admire your optimism re: the electorate

 

[AuroraSaab]

I think Reform and similar are often home for protest votes when people are tired of the mainstream parties. I don't think people necessarily vote for things in an election that they might ostensibly voice limited passive support for. Not in large enough numbers under FPTP anyway.

You could argue their influence is going to be in affecting the direction of travel of other parties come manifesto time. That will also depend on how well the Starmer government is perceived to be doing by that point too, obviously.

 

[matticus]

I think Reform and similar are often home for protest votes when people are tired of the mainstream parties.

This might be true ... but doesn't explain why people vote for Reform instead of Green.

 

[AuroraSaab]

Well the Green position on men in women's spaces and their pushing out of gender critical voices makes them unpalatable to many people.
I would imagine that would outweigh their attraction as some sort of benign protest vote option.

 

[Ian H]

This might be true ... but doesn't explain why people vote for Reform instead of Green.

Hate is a vote-winner in times of stress - an 'out-group' to blame.

 

[Rusty Nails]

I think Reform and similar are often home for protest votes when people are tired of the mainstream parties. I don't think people necessarily vote for things in an election that they might ostensibly voice limited passive support for. Not in large enough numbers under FPTP anyway.

You could argue their influence is going to be in affecting the direction of travel of other parties come manifesto time. That will also depend on how well the Starmer government is perceived to be doing by that point too, obviously.

Reform understand the appeal of the lowest common denominator.

 

[CXRAndy]

Well the Green position on men in women's spaces and their pushing out of gender critical voices makes them unpalatable to many people.
I would imagine that would outweigh their attraction as some sort of benign protest vote option.

Same goes for labour and tories now.

Their position and history on immigration, spiralling costs has made the two main parties unelectable currently