Haven't caught up on all this thread, so this might have been mentioned before. Is anybody else thinking the point of this scheme might be less about off shore processing and actually about engineering an epic clash with the ECHR? Win or lose it's a useful, if expensive, vote winner if an election is looming. Tories setting out their 'national sovereignty' stall early on and leaving Labour to play catch up?
I do get concerned when I start speculating that everything this government does should be seen through the lens of their culture war and dead cat strategy. It worries me that I stray into conspiracy theory; it is a theory I consider fits the facts nicely but I am always minded of the old adage never to attribute to conspiracy what can be adequately explained by incompetence.
Having said this, I suspect it was on the government mind that this would play to the gallery quite well. If they deported some people then they could say the programme was working. If not, they could add fuel to their "lefty lawyers" culture war. I cannot believe that - with the law experts at their disposal - the possibility of objections being upheld in all cases was not understood. So the decision to proceed was either a myopic single mindedness over the scheme or a political calculation.
Whether the "dead cat" strategy of taking Partygate / Vote of confidence off the headlines was a factor, we will probably never know. It certainly is all happening at a time convenient for the headlines. I ascribe almost all government policy to "dead cat" strategies which is almost certainly playing into conspiracy theory, but an easy trap to fall into when no-one in government shows any inkling of have any type of acquaintance with a moral compass or principled ideas.
The by-elections may be a factor, or may not. I have no idea if these types of reactionary immigration policy have any sway in either constituency.
In regards to the ECHR, it makes good publicity for a government who would be rather pleased with being able to disregard human rights - certainly for certain groups of people. But I don't think it was a grand conspiracy to wage war on it - just a "happy" coincidence. The policy makes little sense on any level one examines it at, but it does provide red meat for the UKIPper right wing of the Tory base who are essentially propping up Johnson.
Some "fun" facts about this latest debacle to end my post :
1) It appears that if the flight had gone ahead, the deal was an exchange with 68 highly vulnerable refugees currently in Rwanda being flown back. By the time it was down to single digits of people we could deport, the scheme was effectively increasing the number of people claiming refugee status in the UK.
2) Johnson's grandfather, Sir James Fawcett, was a member of the ECHR for decades culminating in being its president for almost a decade until 1981. I think he must be spinning in his grave so rapidly that if we could harness it, this energy could single-handedly solve the UK energy crisis.