Reform, and the death of the Tory Party

[Shortfall]

People want unicorns, and Farage promises them. The electorate has still not learnt that 'least worst politics' is the best they are going to get. I don't know how many times we've got to go down the route of discovering that populist politicians offering simple solutions to complex problems never deliver. Although the evidence from Reform-led councils so far is that they don't deliver what they promise (maxing out on council tax rises rather than cuts), and from Brexit that none of the supposed benefits they 'promised' have emerged.

But yeah, let's give them the reins.

The problem is that for a very long time "least worst" has actually meant really, really sh1t. There's a political earthquake going on at the moment and the distinct possibility is that after the next general election Labour and Conservatives will cease to exist, at least as a major force. There is going to be a massive realignment and if Farage is the disaster that some in here predict, then whatever parties/coalitions emerge then they will have the job of fixing things.

 

[briantrumpet]

Referenced elsewhere, and a standard (but good) John Harris piece, illustrating the deep frustration with politics in general, and how that makes it a target for selling unicorns to people who justifiably feel bitter.

The argument on the right is that you can't reach for the button that redistributes wealth towards these people because that (socialism) would be bad for the economy. But the idea that a far right party is going to be better than a disappointing and flawed Labour administration to improve their lot is fantasy. That's not what the far right does. Ever. It breaks things, and gives rich people even more power and money.

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...bour-gorton-and-denton-byelection-reform-fury

I realise it's hard to have rational, cogent arguments when there's such a sense of hopelessness, and to sell the idea of voting for the 'least shït' party, not the one that is selling unicorns.

 

[BoldonLad]

Because you have to measure against something. You say Labour are performing badly but offer no evidence or yardstick by which to prove your statement.

Therefore it's just a pointless opinion.

For example, opinion polls say that people don't believe Labour is doing a great job with the economy.
Actual data shows that since they took power the economy is showing modest but patchy recovery.

The "public"s perception of the Government is coloured by reporting in the heavily biased dead tree media, and that which they read on social media - which is also often heavily biased.

So - where is your evidence and what are you measuring against? You criticise Reeves but she hasn't crashed the economy. Consumer confidence levels are improving amongst the younger generations. It's the miserable old gits that aren't moveable in their opinions (as has ever been the case).

By chance, I was listening to "The Times they are a changin'" this morning, a plea for the "oldies" to move over, by, those who are now, today's oldies. 😂

 

[First Aspect]

Who are people going to vote for in two elections' time, once they realise that both Reform and the Greens are lunatics in their own sweet ways?

 

[briantrumpet]

The problem is that for a very long time "least worst" has actually meant really, really sh1t. There's a political earthquake going on at the moment and the distinct possibility is that after the next general election Labour and Conservatives will cease to exist, at least as a major force. There is going to be a massive realignment and if Farage is the disaster that some in here predict, then whatever parties/coalitions emerge then they will have the job of fixing things.

Agreed, although the "really, really shït" outcomes have only really been felt by the poorest in society. I suspect that most of us on here aren't in that group, and that bemoaning modest falls in investment income, or how they can only stay in their French house for 90 days out of 180, or how the train from Cambridge to London is often late, won't resonate with those who feel they've got nothing to lose by voting for Reform (even if they actually have).

Don't get me wrong, I can understand the attraction of Farage's promises to those who feel they've got nothing to lose. I think other politicians' jobs, especially on the left, is to change that narrative, not to pander to it. It's that, if anything (pandering to Farage's narrative) that could spell the end for Labour and even more so for the Conservatives, if they can't find a way both to admit that things aren't great, but there is a positive way - even if it will be a long haul, and a difficult/compromised one - to turn things around, or at least to stop the rot from going any further (Wow, that's such a sexy and easy sell!)

And yes, I know, I'm probably dreaming.

 

[briantrumpet]

Who are people going to vote for in two elections' time, once they realise that both Reform and the Greens are lunatics in their own sweet ways?

I think the difference is probably that the Greens are idealistic/naive lunatics, and Reform are evil bastards (but also including some proper lunatics for good measure). Both in their own sweet ways, obvs.

 

[First Aspect]

I think the difference is probably that the Greens are idealistic/naive lunatics, and Reform are evil bastards (but also including some proper lunatics for good measure). Both in their own sweet ways, obvs.

Another difference is that Reform are basically selling the same thing as Trump, and in the same way will end up screwing the people who voted for them before they and their friends make off with all of the cash.

The Greens will even handedly bankrupt everyone.

 

[Dorset Boy]

People want unicorns, and Farage promises them. The electorate has still not learnt that 'least worst politics' is the best they are going to get. I don't know how many times we've got to go down the route of discovering that populist politicians offering simple solutions to complex problems never deliver. Although the evidence from Reform-led councils so far is that they don't deliver what they promise (maxing out on council tax rises rather than cuts), and from Brexit that none of the supposed benefits they 'promised' have emerged.

But yeah, let's give them the reins.

But what solutions are the traditional parties offering to help steer people away from Reform?
I think Reform would be terrible, but given people consider the Tories failed, Labour are failing, the greens are nutters and Ed Davey prefers stupid stunts to serious politics too much of the time, where should those who feel left behind turn?

No one on here (or in the traditional parties) really is coming up with many solutions.

 

[First Aspect]

But what solutions are the traditional parties offering to help steer people away from Reform?
I think Reform would be terrible, but given people consider the Tories failed, Labour are failing, the greens are nutters and Ed Davey prefers stupid stunts to serious politics too much of the time, where should those who feel left behind turn?

No one on here (or in the traditional parties) really is coming up with many solutions.

There needs to be some expectation management. In fairness Labour tried but it was too realistic and thus gloomy.

I disagree about the no solutions being offered, it's just that the best long term solution in this new era of geopolitics is seen as being treasonous by most parties - i.e. to become part of one of the world's three major trading blocks. Personally I'd suggest the one we are closest to.

 

[TailWindHome]

Big fan of Patrick Maguire's '5th plumber' analogy.

Everyone hates Starmer as he's the 5th plumber who came round to fix the heating and it's still not sorted. So he gets the accumulated rage.

 

[icowden]

Who are people going to vote for in two elections' time, once they realise that both Reform and the Greens are lunatics in their own sweet ways?

I think the Greens are trying to pull in their lunatic fringes to offer a serious alternative. Zack Polanski has been trying to offer coherent arguments and policy - sometimes a bit idealistic, but he is offering something different that appears to be thought out.

Reform on the other hand are increasingly offering the shitshow that we just had, but run by a Trump Lite.

 

[briantrumpet]

But what solutions are the traditional parties offering to help steer people away from Reform?
I think Reform would be terrible, but given people consider the Tories failed, Labour are failing, the greens are nutters and Ed Davey prefers stupid stunts to serious politics too much of the time, where should those who feel left behind turn?

No one on here (or in the traditional parties) really is coming up with many solutions.

As noted by me previously, my solution/options would be either the Tories regaining their enthusiasm for pragmatism and open trade with the EU (rather than an ideology that puts a mythical sovereignty over business needs), and Labour ditching the anti-immigrant stuff and EU 'red lines'. (No-one here is going to be surprised that both of my options are pro-EU.)

Both would have positive, pragmatic 'stories' to tell, one on the business-friendly side, one on the redistributive side. And that pairing either side of the centre ground might help to undermine the unicorns fantasy.

See, I'm not trying to say that one party should have the monopoly of credible ideas. Both the Greens and Reform are, in the literal sense, incredible, and that's what sensible politics should be saying, by offering realistic policies based on their respective underlying principles.

 

[midlandsgrimpeur]

but there is a positive way - even if it will be a long haul, and a difficult/compromised one - to turn things around, or at least to stop the rot from going any further (Wow, that's such a sexy and easy sell!)

There needs to be some expectation management. In fairness Labour tried but it was too realistic and thus gloomy.

I think both of these hit upon the problem, we now, for various reasons, live in a society where people have very unrealistic expectations of hat can be fixed and how quickly these changes can take place. I am still of the mindset that Labour are best placed to make the changes we need but (as we have said many times) are more fixated on chasing Reform voters than actually governing.

As Brian has said, it is Unicorns, but Farage is very good at convincing people he has a few living in his garage*

* just occurred to me "What's in Farage's garage" could be an Alan Partridge TV show pitch.

 

[Shortfall]

Big fan of Patrick Maguire's '5th plumber' analogy.

Everyone hates Starmer as he's the 5th plumber who came round to fix the heating and it's still not sorted. So he gets the accumulated rage.

The difference being he also blamed the last four plumbers and then promised that he could fix it. It's not like he accidentally fell into being the PM and found himself having to sort out a massive problem that he wasn't aware of. He actively campaigned for the job in the full knowledge that the nation's finances were in a terrible state. It's probably his lifetime's ambition to be Prime Minister and then as soon as he gets the job he's found himself wanting.

 

[TailWindHome]

Pointed out several years ago how in Ireland the two parties who'd governed since the creation of the state (Fine Gael & Fianna Fail) where polling a lower combined total than Sinn Fein and that the same could/would happen to Conservative & Labour if they didn't get a grip

The other lesson from Ireland is that the insurgent party (Sinn Fein/Reform) will find it hard to hold their support together. Yes, they're all angry at the government, but they're angry for different reasons