Reform, and the death of the Tory Party

[BoldonLad]

What will the turn out be?
As I always say, if everyone holding their nose voted for the same no hoper then the no hoper could well win. But "what's the point?".

Yes, given the extensive coverage of how .”cliff edge” it is, I did wonder if turnout would be up from the usual dismal levels.

 

[Psamathe]

Yes, getting rid of FPTP, be careful what you wish for 😂

I'm increasingly coming to the view that the best answer to "none of the above" is "no overall control", coalition or just "confidence & supply".

During the last Conservative/Lib Dem coalition I was pretty angered at what the Lib Dems were allowing to happen. But the following Gov. where the Conservatives won an outright majority changed my views as I then appreciated how much the Lib Dems had managed to moderate the Conservatives.

Coalition or just "confidence & supply" might become a disaster but maybe less of a disaster than any of the current offerings getting control?

 

[Pross]

Yes, getting rid of FPTP, be careful what you wish for 😂

It feels like a pretty convoluted alternative and no used in many other countries (where the system is used they don’t usually have closed lists for each Party).

 

[Psamathe]

I'm not sure how many of those who vote will have a clue how the new system works, I specifically looked it up but wouldn't have known otherwise.

I've not looked at the system atall (not affected and not voting under it.

But what are that potential impacts of voters not understanding it. Guessing but somebody voting along party lines is putting they "X"s against the party of their choice whatever the underlying counting scheme. Is understanding the system going to change how they vote? They might be a bit surprised at getting more voting slips than expected but holding multiple elections at same time is not that unusual (where you get multiple voting slips.

I can see people getting confused as to who their elected representative is but that's probably long after they cast their vote.

I have has occasion where proportional representation has been very useful. When living in France I have an issue needing to be taken up by an MEP and I had several different party MEPs available (thanks to PR/Mr D'Hondt) - Conservative I contacted showed no interest, etc. and it was when I got to my Labour MEP and he took an interest and started pursuing things.

 

[Pross]

I've not looked at the system atall (not affected and not voting under it.

But what are that potential impacts of voters not understanding it. Guessing but somebody voting along party lines is putting they "X"s against the party of their choice whatever the underlying counting scheme. Is understanding the system going to change how they vote? They might be a bit surprised at getting more voting slips than expected but holding multiple elections at same time is not that unusual (where you get multiple voting slips.

I can see people getting confused as to who their elected representative is but that's probably long after they cast their vote.

I have has occasion where proportional representation has been very useful. When living in France I have an issue needing to be taken up by an MEP and I had several different party MEPs available (thanks to PR/Mr D'Hondt) - Conservative I contacted showed no interest, etc. and it was when I got to my Labour MEP and he took an interest and started pursuing things.

I don’t think it will affect how they vote much but I think a lot will be surprised to find they have 6 Senedd Members in their constituency representing several (3 or 4 probably) Parties. 96 is far too many representatives too (there are currently 60 which seems ample).

 

[TailWindHome]

So it's a single vote, x against the party then seats allocated using d'hondt?

Does that not remove the need to coalesce around a party?
Just vote your preference.

 

[Pross]

So it's a single vote, x against the party then seats allocated using d'hondt?

Does that not remove the need to coalesce around a party?
Just vote your preference.

That’s the theory but the Lib Dem’s are unlikely to get a seat. The votes are likely to be split between Reform, Labour, Plaid and the Tories (the Greens want people to believe they’ve got a shout too, I’m not convinced), There’s a risk of Reform getting 3 seats apparently but I’m struggling to find any polling information for individual constituencies.