Starmer's vision quest

[Stevo 666]

I give it 10 mins before Starmer/Reeves, et. al. start with the "Further and faster" sound-bite that seems their answer to all their failings.

That sounds like the standard EU response (referring to integration) when there's a problem or crisis.

 

[First Aspect]

The news here is the complete pasting that Labour got (even if they did suffer from some tactical voting). Welsh nationalist party winning in Wales isn't really news.

Dunno about that. Reform underperformed. Conservatives needn't have turned up at all.

I don't for a second think this will be reflected around the UK, but I bet it will be a theme in Wales and Scotland.

 

[Stevo 666]

Dunno about that. Reform underperformed. Conservatives needn't have turned up at all.

I don't for a second think this will be reflected around the UK, but I bet it will be a theme in Wales and Scotland.

Not sure whether Reform underperformed or not - this was a 'home match' for the Welsh nationalists. Although agree that this could be repeated elsewhere in Wales and Scotland.

 

[Pross]

The news here is the complete pasting that Labour got (even if they did suffer from some tactical voting). Welsh nationalist party winning in Wales isn't really news.

Not necessarily. Like many parts of Wales, Caerphilly isn't exactly a nationalist hot bed. Both the traditional big UK Parties got hammered losing a very similar percentage of the vote share.

 

[Stevo 666]

Not necessarily. Like many parts of Wales, Caerphilly isn't exactly a nationalist hot bed. Both the traditional big UK Parties got hammered losing a very similar percentage of the vote share.

I mentioned above about tactical voting, which could explain it if there was an 'anyone but Reform' effect.

 

[Pross]

Reform went from 495 votes / 1.5% of vote share in 2021 to 12,113 votes 36% so definitely didn't underperform even though opinion polls early in the week had them to win. Tories went from 5,013 / 17.3% to 690 / 2% and Labour 13,289 / 46% to 3,713 / 11%. Plaid became the 'keep Reform out' vote. By my reckoning, under the new PR system being used next year if the constituenct was remaining the same (it isn't) that would translate as 3 Plaid, 2 Reform and 1 Labour representative. I assume we'll end up with a coalition, probably of Plaid and Labour as I don't see anyone working with Reform.

 

[Psamathe]

I would urge you to ask questions like what you want to vote for, not against. Or whether there is a better alternative.

Isn't that where it gets more complex. If in your particular constituency the Party you least dislike is a complete no hope then in some respects it's not worth the walk to the polling station (maybe a failing of our first past the post). But these days where least dislike seems more widespread than "support" keeping the worst out in some circumstances might be next best use of your vote.

I dislike tactical voting but our political system in the UK has degenerated to be such a farce I'm starting to question that dislike. Fortunately my own constituency managed a complete "blinder" last General election where an ultra-safe Conservative seat suddenly returned a Green MP and one I'd happily vote for so I won't have to wrestle the "tactical voting" question.

 

[CXRAndy]

Dunno about that. Reform underperformed. Conservatives needn't have turned up at all.

I don't for a second think this will be reflected around the UK, but I bet it will be a theme in Wales and Scotland.

I cant see Reform underperformed. They have come from nowhere to be a strong second place. All the other parties came nowhere

 

[Pblakeney]

Isn't that where it gets more complex. If in your particular constituency the Party you least dislike is a complete no hope then in some respects it's not worth the walk to the polling station (maybe a failing of our first past the post).

As I keep pointing out, if everyone who doesn't vote (60%+ in some cases) then the results could swing significantly.
But, can't be bothered. Cos.

 

[Xipe Totec]

I assume we'll end up with a coalition, probably of Plaid and Labour as I don't see anyone working with Reform.

Not sure. If Plaid poll well enough to start looking like a genuine threat, you might see some outwardly baffling alliances.

In Scotland, Labour & Tories have teamed up in various councils to 'keep the Nats out', and come the Holyrood vote in May, if the SNP underperform the way I expect they will, I won't be remotely surprised to see a Labour/Tory/Reform alliance forming the Government From Hell.

 

[Pblakeney]

Not sure. If Plaid poll well enough to start looking like a genuine threat, you might see some outwardly baffling alliances.

In Scotland, Labour & Tories have teamed up in various councils to 'keep the Nats out', and come the Holyrood vote in May, if the SNP underperform the way I expect they will, I won't be remotely surprised to see a Labour/Tory/Reform alliance forming the Government From Hell.

As I remember it from the Indy Chat (long time ago so, faulty memory?) the Holyrood system was deliberately set up specifically with the intention of there being coalitions. Says something that the Nats had a majority for so long. Not sure what, but possibly the rest were perceived so appallingly.

This may open the door for Reform, which would be a strange decision given Reform's attitude to Scotland. Nowt so queer as folks.

 

[Xipe Totec]

As I remember it from the Indy Chat (long time ago so, faulty memory?) the Holyrood system was deliberately set up specifically with the intention of there being coalitions. Says something that the Nats had a majority for so long. Not sure what, but possibly the rest were perceived so appallingly.

This may open the door for Reform, which would be a strange decision given Reform's attitude to Scotland. Nowt so queer as folks.

Reform's attitude to Scotland isn't massively different to the Tories or Labour, if you mean they're an England-based party that's massively skeptical about devolution & the future of devolved government.

As it happens, the SNP only ever had an overall majority once, seemingly based on quite freakish voting patterns that were statistically something like a 0.5% probability. And FM John Swinney, in his 'wisdom' has decreed that next year this must happen again, and is promoting the repeatedly failed Suicide Strategy of voting SNP 1&2.

It's depressing how quickly people (ie the SNP & independence supporters) have forgotten that just over a year ago the Scottish electorate booted nearly 40 SNP MPs out of Westminster & parachuted a bunch of Starmer drones in to replace them.

So yeah - I think that Labour/Reform/Tory teamup's a very real possibility.

 

[First Aspect]

Reform's attitude to Scotland isn't massively different to the Tories or Labour, if you mean they're an England-based party that's massively skeptical about devolution & the future of devolved government.

As it happens, the SNP only ever had an overall majority once, seemingly based on quite freakish voting patterns that were statistically something like a 0.5% probability. And FM John Swinney, in his 'wisdom' has decreed that next year this must happen again, and is promoting the repeatedly failed Suicide Strategy of voting SNP 1&2.

It's depressing how quickly people (ie the SNP & independence supporters) have forgotten that just over a year ago the Scottish electorate booted nearly 40 SNP MPs out of Westminster & parachuted a bunch of Starmer drones in to replace them.

So yeah - I think that Labour/Reform/Tory teamup's a very real possibility.

SNP are last man* standing in many ways, their incompetence coming under the radar. As it has for a long time.

By "man" I mean he/she/they, in accordance with nationalist doctrine.

 

[Pblakeney]

It's depressing how quickly people (ie the SNP & independence supporters) have forgotten that just over a year ago the Scottish electorate booted nearly 40 SNP MPs out of Westminster & parachuted a bunch of Starmer drones in to replace them.

I suspect the vote in Scotland will be a forbearer for England. "We gave Labour a chance, and they blew it. Big time!"
The consequences? Who knows, but time will tell.

 

[spen666]

Whoops

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...-uk-asylum-hotel-protests-released-by-mistake

Not what Kier needs now.