Starmer's vision quest

[tarric]

It was a summary of a Scottish govt publication. No idea what methodology was used, but I don't see how they can account for higher earners avoiding Scotland in the longer term. They are aware of that issue though, and haven't floated increasing the difference to rUK more recently.

Whether or not an extra 5% is a lot rather depends hownmuch more above 125 you earn, I suppose. You are getting to the top 1-2% though and the crossover where it is not worth employers paying people that much as a salary.

The level of migration between Scotland and the rest of the UK was around 30,000 moving in each direction every year, with minimal levels of net migration to Scotland (between -1,600 and +1,400) from the rest of the UK between 2010 to 2017. Beyond 2017, the first year where Income Tax was (partially) devolved, net migration to Scotland increased on a yearly basis, to around 6,500 individuals in 2022 to 2023 (with a peak of approximately 8,500 in 2021 to 2022).
This shift from the previously stable trend reflected a growing number of taxpayers migrating from from the rest of the UK to Scotland compared to earlier years, for example in the tax year ending 2012 around 22,000 individuals migrated to Scotland, and 23,000 migrated from Scotland to the rest of the UK, whilst in the tax year ending 2023 the respective figures were 36,5500 migrating to Scotland and from the rest of the UK and 29,500 migrating from Scotland to the rest of the UK . Overall, net migration to Scotland was positive in 10 out of the 13 years between 2010 - 2023.
The net income movement (the amount of taxable income earned by individuals migrating from the rest of the UK to Scotland minus the amount of income earned by individuals migrating from Scotland to the rest of the UK) was at a deficit between 2011 and 2019, averaging around -£60 million, but that changed to a surplus of approximately £220 million in tax year ending 2022 and around £160 million in year ending 2023, respectively.
So basically increasing taxes has led to more people moving from the rest of the UK to Scotland and increasing the taxes collected.
Information taken from HMRC.

Can't be done. As soon as any Government even suggests increasing taxes on the wealthy (who can afford it) they threaten to abandon the UK and emigrate and Government gets scared as apparently we need people who are not prepared to contribute, those with broadest shoulders and those who have more than they could ever spend in several lifetimes yet apparently need even more.

Yes they threaten but very few if any actually do, and if they don't pay what difference would it make anyway.

 

[First Aspect]

The level of migration between Scotland and the rest of the UK was around 30,000 moving in each direction every year, with minimal levels of net migration to Scotland (between -1,600 and +1,400) from the rest of the UK between 2010 to 2017. Beyond 2017, the first year where Income Tax was (partially) devolved, net migration to Scotland increased on a yearly basis, to around 6,500 individuals in 2022 to 2023 (with a peak of approximately 8,500 in 2021 to 2022).
This shift from the previously stable trend reflected a growing number of taxpayers migrating from from the rest of the UK to Scotland compared to earlier years, for example in the tax year ending 2012 around 22,000 individuals migrated to Scotland, and 23,000 migrated from Scotland to the rest of the UK, whilst in the tax year ending 2023 the respective figures were 36,5500 migrating to Scotland and from the rest of the UK and 29,500 migrating from Scotland to the rest of the UK . Overall, net migration to Scotland was positive in 10 out of the 13 years between 2010 - 2023.
The net income movement (the amount of taxable income earned by individuals migrating from the rest of the UK to Scotland minus the amount of income earned by individuals migrating from Scotland to the rest of the UK) was at a deficit between 2011 and 2019, averaging around -£60 million, but that changed to a surplus of approximately £220 million in tax year ending 2022 and around £160 million in year ending 2023, respectively.
So basically increasing taxes has led to more people moving from the rest of the UK to Scotland and increasing the taxes collected.
Information taken from HMRC.




Yes they threaten but very few if any actually do, and if they don't pay what difference would it make anyway.

Increasing taxes did not increase net migration to Scotland. That's just an idiotic conclusion that is worthy of turning into an infographic for the shït graphs thread.

There are many reasons for migration, including where you job is, where there are job opportunities, house prices etc.

The question to ask is what would have happened in the parallel universe where there was not an income tax discrepancy.

None of this is to argue for or against it, incidentally. But even the SNP appear to recognise that the gap can't get any bigger.

 

[Pblakeney]

Increasing taxes did not increase net migration to Scotland. That's just an idiotic conclusion that is worthy of turning into an infographic for the shït graphs thread.

There are many reasons for migration, including where you job is, where there are job opportunities, house prices etc.

The question to ask is what would have happened in the parallel universe where there was not an income tax discrepancy.

None of this is to argue for or against it, incidentally. But even the SNP appear to recognise that the gap can't get any bigger.

I think it would be fair to say that if the figures were reversed then they would be used as a stick to beat the SNP with.
I have no interest either way but statistics are always used to support an argument. Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

 

[Psamathe]

I see now being reported that the documentation release over Mandleson has cost the Cabinet Office over £1m - yet more consequences of Starmer's bad judgement.

That's £1m of our money that could have been spent on something useful.

 

[First Aspect]

I see now being reported that the documentation release over Mandleson has cost the Cabinet Office over £1m - yet more consequences of Starmer's bad judgement.

That's £1m of our money that could have been spent on something useful.

Getting him out of public life seems like money well spent tbh. We should do that to more creepy politicians.

 

[secretsqirrel]

I see now being reported that the documentation release over Mandleson has cost the Cabinet Office over £1m - yet more consequences of Starmer's bad judgement.

That's £1m of our money that could have been spent on something useful.

I agree, nothing really to gain from it but it’s what Badenoch and co wanted.

 

[Ian H]

Getting him out of public life seems like money well spent tbh. We should do that to more creepy politicians.

...and the name Gove immediately springs to mind.

 

[BoldonLad]

I see now being reported that the documentation release over Mandleson has cost the Cabinet Office over £1m - yet more consequences of Starmer's bad judgement.

That's £1m of our money that could have been spent on something useful.

It would appear that Mandleson shared a view of Starmer which has been expressed on here. Is Mandleson a cyclist, could he be lurking on NCAP. 😂

 

[tarric]

Increasing taxes did not increase net migration to Scotland. That's just an idiotic conclusion that is worthy of turning into an infographic for the shït graphs thread.

There are many reasons for migration, including where you job is, where there are job opportunities, house prices etc.

The question to ask is what would have happened in the parallel universe where there was not an income tax discrepancy.

None of this is to argue for or against it, incidentally. But even the SNP appear to recognise that the gap can't get any bigger

To the bit I put in bold, who said they did. I was using it to show that higher taxes don't necessarily put people off living somewhere. In fact some of the countries with the highest taxes are also some of the countries where people are the happiest.

 

[briantrumpet]

To the bit I put in bold, who said they did. I was using it to show that higher taxes don't necessarily put people off living somewhere. In fact some of the countries with the highest taxes are also some of the countries where people are the happiest.

For that to work, the 'happiness' has to be widely shared and registered by enough people, and the financial cost perceived to be sustainable to the electorate.

 

[Pblakeney]

For that to work, the 'happiness' has to be widely shared and registered by enough people, and the financial cost perceived to be sustainable to the electorate.

Ha! People in this country are never happy. It's too cold, it's too hot, it's raining 😢, there's a drought 😢. And that's just the bleeding weather.

 

[midlandsgrimpeur]

This is an incredibly well put together overview of the policy approach to Net Zero. I can't help but feel Labour needs to do much much more to help educate people around what the target actually means for us, not just environmentally but also the massive economic implications (far more so than AI and crypto boll****).

https://iandunt.substack.com/p/guest-post-labours-net-zero-triumph

 

[Pblakeney]

This is an incredibly well put together overview of the policy approach to Net Zero. I can't help but feel Labour needs to do much much more to help educate people around what the target actually means for us, not just environmentally but also the massive economic implications (far more so than AI and crypto boll****).

https://iandunt.substack.com/p/guest-post-labours-net-zero-triumph

AI is going to more than cancel out any green positive gains.
That just means that we need even more green energy, and water maintenance, and absorb the costs. For what?

 

[midlandsgrimpeur]

This is an incredibly well put together overview of the policy approach to Net Zero. I can't help but feel Labour needs to do much much more to help educate people around what the target actually means for us, not just environmentally but also the massive economic implications (far more so than AI and crypto boll****).

https://iandunt.substack.com/p/guest-post-labours-net-zero-triumph

To be fair, the article also highlights the role previous Tory govts played in setting up infrastructure. It also shows how canny a political operator Ed Miliband actually is (in spite of media representations of him).

It also contains a great quote on clean energy vs fossil fuels “Sunlight has to travel 93 million miles to reach the Earth, but none of those miles go through the Strait of Hormuz”.

 

[midlandsgrimpeur]

AI is going to more than cancel out any green positive gains.
That just means that we need even more green energy, and water maintenance, and absorb the costs. For what?

For what? Without it, we don't have a sustainable planet in about 60-80 years time in all likelihood. I am not so sure about AI, it is a bubble, whereas clean energy is underpinned by sound economic and environmental data.

Have you read the full article PB? If not, give it a read, it really does provide a pretty comprehensive picture of what action now can do for global and local benefit to us all.