Swimming with the tide....

[newfhouse]

Are you scared, I'm not.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scare_quotes

 

[stowie]

3,000 people, out of how many?

Very representative of the country.

Which 'reality of modern Britain ' do these people belong to?

Where is the this 'tide ' they are swimming with?

Grrr. Sorry Shep, but I see this argument all the time on social media.

You don't have to ask the whole nation the question to get a remarkably accurate representation of the country at large.

In fact, you need only ask a surprisingly small number of people to get an accurate representation as long as that small number of people adequately represent the bigger nation. And that is the skill in polling (and statistics more generally).

I am not adequately skilled enough to understand the technical detail in the report on the sampling process so I cannot comment too much on the veracity of polling or not. I just know that small samples are not necessary an indication of a poor survey. And a survey of 3k people isn't actually that small for a survey anyway.

 

[Deleted member 28]

Grrr. Sorry Shep, but I see this argument all the time on social media.

You don't have to ask the whole nation the question to get a remarkably accurate representation of the country at large.

In fact, you need only ask a surprisingly small number of people to get an accurate representation as long as that small number of people adequately represent the bigger nation. And that is the skill in polling (and statistics more generally).

I am not adequately skilled enough to understand the technical detail in the report on the sampling process so I cannot comment too much on the veracity of polling or not. I just know that small samples are not necessary an indication of a poor survey. And a survey of 3k people isn't actually that small for a survey anyway.

Must be true then.

 

[Deleted member 28]

I'm on the lowest level of Universal Credit. Which is £330 a month, give or take. I'm not expecting hand outs but by the end of the month, I'm pretty much skint. People are struggling, you aren't as you frequently point out. Lucky you. Other people have to make the choice between eating and heating their homes. If you don't consider that dark, I don't know what you would.

It does sound pretty dark.

 

[AndyRM]

Grrr. Sorry Shep, but I see this argument all the time on social media.

You don't have to ask the whole nation the question to get a remarkably accurate representation of the country at large.

In fact, you need only ask a surprisingly small number of people to get an accurate representation as long as that small number of people adequately represent the bigger nation. And that is the skill in polling (and statistics more generally).

I am not adequately skilled enough to understand the technical detail in the report on the sampling process so I cannot comment too much on the veracity of polling or not. I just know that small samples are not necessary an indication of a poor survey. And a survey of 3k people isn't actually that small for a survey anyway.

3,000 is massive for a survey in the UK.

 

[Deleted member 28]

3,000 is massive for a survey in the UK.

And is what as a percentage, 0000.5?

 

[BoldonLad]

And is what as a percentage, 0.5?

0.0045%, according to my O level maths (I did use 66million as the population of the UK, I think that may be. bit low). I also assumed it was UK, not Britain (the header of the article said UK), although, I did not notice any figures or graphs for any. region outside of England.

 

[AndyRM]

And is what as a percentage, 0000.5?

This isn't the census, it isn't mandatory. But it's more representative than the majority of surveys carried out in the country.

 

[Deleted member 28]

This isn't the census, it isn't mandatory. But it's more representative than the majority of surveys carried out in the country.

Again, must be true then.

Best get my armbands on if there's some heavy duty tide swimming to do.

You have to ask yourselves though, 'in these dark times ' who really gives a toss what 1500 odd people think and is it really going to ease the pain?

 

[Mugshot]

Struggling to get by I guess?

14.5 million people in the UK live in poverty, 1 in 5. That's dark.

And its going to get a whole lot worse before it gets better.

 

[BoldonLad]

14.5 million people in the UK live in poverty, 1 in 5. That's dark.

And its going to get a whole lot worse before it gets better.

What is the definition of Poverty which gives the figure of 14.5 million?

 

[Mugshot]

What is the definition of Poverty which gives the figure of 14.5 million?

Here's the government definition, although they have 1 in 6.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn07096/

Here's the JRF data, which has it as 14.5 million, 22%

https://www.jrf.org.uk/data/overall...n one in five,in poverty– 14.5 million people.

 

[Deleted member 28]

0.0045%, according to my O level maths

That's one hell of a tide!

 

[stowie]

Must be true then.

Yeah, that is the standard response as well. Which I think you know isn't what I was saying.

If we cannot extrapolate population characteristics from small samples we are in a lot of trouble from city planning to quality control processes.

It is the usual reaction to a survey. If I don't think the same or, or my family/friends don't think the same then it can't be true. Which is falling into exactly the trap that statistics and polling experts spend a lot of time, effort and money trying to avoid.

Is this survey accurate? Dunno. I am not educated enough on polling techniques and statistics to make a determination from the methodology set out in the report. All I know is that dismissing it because of the sample size alone - especially when that sample size is actually quite big for a survey, is misguided.

 

[Milkfloat]

And is what as a percentage, 0000.5?

Statistically you would need a sample size of 385 to have a confidence level of 95% and an a margin of error of 5%.
3000 people would be a confidence level of 99.9% with a margin of error of 3%. It is amazing how small a sample size you need.