Taiwan and China....


Old man on a bike. Not a member of a clique.
South Tyneside
Don''t think there is much to discuss,

Cannot see any Western Power starting a war with China.

I suppose we could impose economic sanctions, and a blockade on their exports. We should be able to keep that up for a day or two, until we run out of manufactured goods and spare parts.


Active Member
My read is that the PRC are just countering the 'independence' rhetoric by Taiwan and that they will both makes lots of noise, but unless Taiwan makes real moves towards independence then the uneasy relationship will continue with mini battles politically and some sabre rattling.


Active Member
I read two articles about the situation, both entirely plausible and both with very different outcomes.

TSMC is the jewel in the Taiwan crown. It makes around 56% of all semiconductor devices and the majority of the cutting edge stuff. It is difficult to overstate TSMC's position in both electronic products and the world economy in general.

The first potential outcome says that currently semiconductors are the new oil. The US and the West in general absolutely cannot have most of the production of this vital product under China control. It is the new oil, and Taiwan the new Kuwait. Imagine China have this control - the ability to turn off supply of chips for everything from consumer electronics to F35 jets. China won't invade because they know the rest of the world will respond with the US and allies responding militarily. China will become a pariah.

The opposite school of thought is that governments are now desperate to make the supply chain of semiconductor less reliant on single sources. This will probably take 2-5 years to start having an effect since fabs take a lot of work to get into full production from a green field site. There is a time limit on the power that TSMC - and Taiwan - will have over semiconductor supply, so China will strike soon to gain the most political, scientific and economic advantage. They will bet the US and allies may sabre rattle but the appetite for full conflict is very limited. Plus China will have attained - in one action - something they are desperate for. Access to the highest technology semiconductor processes - something that they have been thwarted from attaining by the US preventing export of critical equipment.

Of course, the answer was probably not to have a supply chain of critical components reliant on one company predominately based in on country. But that is capitalism for you.


Legendary Member
Leaked by Dominic Raab...


Well-Known Member
The threat of war and invasion is important and bad an' all, but, look at what China have done to Fight Club!

In China, before the explosions, a message now says the police foiled the plot, arrested the criminals and sent Durden to a "lunatic asylum".

I've put it in a spoiler, just in case any of you haven't seen it.

BBC link behind "Spoiler"

The first rule of editing Fight Club is ...
IMHO, for us to have a clear-eyed view of the Taiwan issue, and indeed most political issues associated with China, some circumspection might be useful, perhaps starting with something like this.

What we do see on a daily basis, however, is the spectacle of one country (and its poodles) accusing another of being “belligerent”, "bellicose", and a danger to international orders, while the accuser: 1) is the one with circa 800 military bases around the world, 2) has a military expenditure that is roughly the next 10 spendiest combined, 3) waged numerous wars abroad causing the death of circa 1 million and untold suffering to many times more over the past 4 decades, and 4) regularly sailing warships around the coast of the other in the name of defending freedom of navigation, while freedom of navigation is what the other needs as the biggest trader in the world.

It is not as if the US has nothing else worth focusing on - the bottom 50% of Americans have not seen their economic circumstances improved for over three decades, and 60% of Americans don’t have enough savings to cover 3 months' expenses.

The situation in UK is not dissimilar, whether in terms of mass media fustercluck, or citizens' economic challenges.

The saddest thing, is that those who are poor and those who have lost hope are then led to believe they have nothing to lose to elect morons.

In the meantime, the key geopolitical question that will affect us all, is what would such morons not do, to win and hang on to power, to maintain hegemony, and to contain China's rise.


First they came for the Communists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Communist
Then they came for the Socialists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Socialist
Then they came for the trade unionists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a trade unionist
Then they came for the Jews
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Jew
Then they came for me
And there was no one left
To speak out for me
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