The NCAP Soccerball Thread

[First Aspect]

It is long overdue that an England team won something they didn't really deserve to, instead of not winning something they deserved to.

On the men's side, Denmark, Greece and Portugal - arguably also Italy - have done so, in the last 10 editions.

 

[bobzmyunkle]

It is long overdue that an England team won something they didn't really deserve to, instead of not winning something they deserved to.

didn't really deserve to? Perhaps we should investigate this new criteria for awarding the trophy.

 

[CXRAndy]

Is this, everyone is a winner mentality?


Of course England's women football squad deserved to win and should celebrate for as long as possible.

Well done ladies

 

[First Aspect]

didn't really deserve to? Perhaps we should investigate this new criteria for awarding the trophy.

Tongue in cheek, but "rode their luck" = lucky, as regards late winners, missed penalties etc. No one is complaining.

No different to when England's cricketers won the world cup by virtue of some questionable "how do we decide who has won a drawn match" rules no one has really thought through before it happened.

 

[laurentian]

Tongue in cheek, but "rode their luck" = lucky, as regards late winners, missed penalties etc. No one is complaining.

No different to when England's cricketers won the world cup by virtue of some questionable "how do we decide who has won a drawn match" rules no one has really thought through before it happened.

I'd love to hear an explanation of how a goal scored in the closing minutes of a game is more lucky than one scored in the opening minutes or how scoring a penalty is lucky and missing or having one saved is unlucky . . .

 

[First Aspect]

I'd love to hear an explanation of how a goal scored in the closing minutes of a game is more lucky than one scored in the opening minutes or how scoring a penalty is lucky and missing or having one saved is unlucky . . .

Take a look at how in game betting odd change during the course of a game.

 

[laurentian]

Take a look at how in game betting odd change during the course of a game.

That would tell me how likely a betting company believes one side will win/lose at the particular time and doesn't really answer my question.

 

[icowden]

I'd love to hear an explanation of how a goal scored in the closing minutes of a game is more lucky than one scored in the opening minutes or how scoring a penalty is lucky and missing or having one saved is unlucky . . .

I'd say the other way round. If it's scored during the game it's more about skill than luck. It's the penalties that tend to be more luck based.

 

[laurentian]

I'd say the other way round. If it's scored during the game it's more about skill than luck. It's the penalties that tend to be more luck based.

In what way? surely it's down to the skill/competence of the penalty taker and/or goalie

 

[bobzmyunkle]

It's the penalties that tend to be more luck based.

So the England men's team have become luckier in their penalty taking?

 

[icowden]

So the England men's team have become luckier in their penalty taking?

Dunno. I don't follow the footsie. It's just that I read something a while back which demonstrated that penalties are largely luck based.

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

I don't know exactly how they measured it (was the time England led in the penalty shootouts included?) but of the 360 minutes play in the knockout stages, the BBC quoted that England had only been in the lead for 5 minutes, for the other 5 hours and 55 minutes, England either trailed or had level scores.

I'm not an expert on these things but I don't think I could explain it without resorting to luck for a good chunk of it.

 

[First Aspect]

So the England men's team have become luckier in their penalty taking?

The probabilities probably haven't changed very much. There have just been a few more of them.

 

[laurentian]

I don't know exactly how they measured it (was the time England led in the penalty shootouts included?) but of the 360 minutes play in the knockout stages, the BBC quoted that England had only been in the lead for 5 minutes, for the other 5 hours and 55 minutes, England either trailed or had level scores.

I'm not an expert on these things but I don't think I could explain it without resorting to luck for a good chunk of it.

Last night, Spain crossed the ball and it was headed in. Second half England crossed the ball and it was headed in by Russo to equalise. I really can't understand how the latter was more "lucky" than the former just because it was in the later stages of the game. See also Michelle Agyemang's two late equalisers in the quarter and semi finals . . . late, but far from "lucky"

England defended well in the final . . . it doesn't mean Spain were "unlucky" not to score with their various attempts, it means they were either off target or England's defence was better than Spain's attack.

If the Spanish goalie had kicked the ball out of her area at the same time that a wasp stung a defender in front of her causing the defender to jump in the air and the ball to hit the back of the defender's head and rebound in for an own goal, I would consider that lucky.

 

[Ian H]

There was a statistical study some years ago which came to the conclusion that a soccer game between evenly matched teams owed the eventual result more to chance than skill.