War with Russia

[Pinno718]

I can't remember saying they would...

Fair enough but I do remember you saying that things were looking pretty grim for the Ukrainains not so long ago (within our tenure on this forum).

 

[briantrumpet]

Fair enough but I do remember you saying that things were looking pretty grim for the Ukrainains not so long ago (within our tenure on this forum).

Well, they've been doing a good job since then!

 

[icowden]

Fair enough but I do remember you saying that things were looking pretty grim for the Ukrainains not so long ago (within our tenure on this forum).

They were. However a change of tactic and the mastery of drone warfare has turned things around very quickly. By destroying Putin's resources, Ukraine is destabilising Russia. Putin has killed most of his fighting men, much of his military hardware is destroyed. Troop morale is low with desertions left right and centre. Putin might be controlling the propaganda but it doesn't mean that most Russians aren't able to tune in to long wave radio or get information via the internet that they are half way up shoot creek without a paddle.

 

[Pinno718]

They were. However a change of tactic and the mastery of drone warfare has turned things around very quickly. By destroying Putin's resources, Ukraine is destabilising Russia. Putin has killed most of his fighting men, much of his military hardware is destroyed. Troop morale is low with desertions left right and centre. Putin might be controlling the propaganda but it doesn't mean that most Russians aren't able to tune in to long wave radio or get information via the internet that they are half way up shoot creek without a paddle.

They are in deep deep sh*t and I really am crossing my fingers because If I am right, @miltsy will be cleaning my bicycles for 1 whole year.

 

[Psamathe]

Putin might be controlling the propaganda but it doesn't mean that most Russians aren't able to tune in to long wave radio or get information via the internet that they are half way up shoot creek without a paddle.

Thing is, whatever the public feel about Putin and the war will that have any impact on it? Does public opinion influence Putin or has he completely isolated himself.

I can see increasing oppression building, conscripts failing to attend and going into hiding, etc. but that will take a long time to build and might only become effective and changing Putin's direction once society has completely broken down.

 

[Pinno718]

Thing is, whatever the public feel about Putin and the war will that have any impact on it? Does public opinion influence Putin or has he completely isolated himself.

I can see increasing oppression building, conscripts failing to attend and going into hiding, etc. but that will take a long time to build and might only become effective and changing Putin's direction once society has completely broken down.

I think that things will reach critical mass. At this point, the complete collapse will happen so I don't think it will be a slow ebb. It's a guess which Old Soviet ally country he will flee to given that Syria has gone, Chechnya is going to be in chaos and the rest are not very appealing being impoverished/will be in a state of flux following a collapse of the motherland.

Think about this: Russia, the so called 'super power' who's air defences have been almost totally destroyed, who produced 14.2% of global oil production has... fuel shortages, increasing unemployment and dwindling resources (human or otherwise) to credibly sustain this conflict.

No one wants to sign up, They are torturing soldiers who refuse to go into the meat grinder. There's an horrific video of a Russian soldier hanging by his feet naked being beaten by his superior for not carrying out orders. The 'official' number of deaths exceeds 500,000. The most humiliating event occurs: St Petersburg Economic Forum, which used to host dignitaries from all over the globe hosts the event with the backdrop of the Russian Navy being hit by drones to no resistance and the oil terminals burning.
Businesses are closing by the hundreds each month and the amount of toxic bank loans (bad debt portfolio's) has apparently reached 37%.
No superpower sells gold bullion at this rate: The Central Bank of Russia parted with nearly 28 tonnes from its sovereign reserves in just the first four months of the year, including a record drawdown of over 6 tonnes in April alone.

What is significant and often taken for granted because we live in a society with the freedom to speak about politics (on the whole) is the sheer number of on line bloggers and members of the public openly criticising Putin and the government where before, it was almost guaranteed that would result in imprisonment. It's a litmus test in that Putin can no longer control the narrative. His power is slipping. The SVO has gone so horribly wrong and the little gargoyle genocidal midget is probably sh*tting his pants. Perhaps a bullet to the head with his own hand would dignify his death, after all, Gadhafi was sodomised with swords and Saddam was hung.
Seeing him in the dock in the Hague looking miserable and dejected is a wet dream but it won't happen. When he goes, I will get drunk as a skunk.

The effect of the implosion of Russian influence globally will be very interesting and wholly positive for all democracies.

 

[BoldonLad]

Quantitative easing (QE) generally exerts upward pressure on inflation by increasing the money supply, lowering borrowing costs, and boosting overall economic demand. Central banks use QE during economic downturns to hit inflation targets, but excessive QE can lead to high inflation if demand outpaces supply.

Putin will need the latter.

What has Richard J Murphy got to say on the matter?

The law of supply and demand seems to be pretty effective, and, provided you remember money is simply a resource, then, all becomes clear.

It was not a serious suggestion by the way.

 

[BoldonLad]

Thing is, whatever the public feel about Putin and the war will that have any impact on it? Does public opinion influence Putin or has he completely isolated himself.

I can see increasing oppression building, conscripts failing to attend and going into hiding, etc. but that will take a long time to build and might only become effective and changing Putin's direction once society has completely broken down.

Yes, indeed, and, that would not be good news for the Russian people, or, perhaps, for any of us. IMHO.

 

[Pinno718]

Not naked, my apols. I saw clips of the footage from the waste up but he appears to be naked in the video as he is wrapped in clingfilm.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/39254595/russian-commander-hangs-soldier-beating/

 

[Pinno718]

Hundreds of fuel trucks stuck on the main highway into Crimea @briantrumpet.
Sitting ducks?

 

[UglyWithaSidePart]

Talk about a target rich environment!

 

[dutchguylivingintheuk]

Thing is, whatever the public feel about Putin and the war will that have any impact on it? Does public opinion influence Putin or has he completely isolated himself.

It's about the same as going into the streets in Gaza and expecting to hear honest opinions about Hamas not gonna happen, Putin has build an name that screams "if you don't agree with us we will end you"

I can see increasing oppression building, conscripts failing to attend and going into hiding, etc. but that will take a long time to build and might only become effective and changing Putin's direction once society has completely broken down.

Yeah when people are confronted with an almost certain death which is being conscripted means they might do desperate things like failing to attend and hiding, not so different on the Ukrainian side btw, although the chances of surviving have clearly changed for the better for Ukrainian conscripts.

I do not dare to predict that whoever takes power after Putin would also stop the war, Prizoghin (if i wrote that correctly) the ex-Wagner boss who came close to stopping Putin didn't want to stop the war for example. He just thought he could do better the Putin.

 

[Pinno718]

Magyar's birds hitting ships in St Petersburg.


View: https://x.com/414magyarbirds/status/2062829399087382778/video/1

 

[C R]

Magyar's birds hitting ships in St Petersburg.


View: https://x.com/414magyarbirds/status/2062829399087382778/video/1

There's no mention of St Petersburg in that post, it is all about the black sea.

 

[Pblakeney]

There's no mention of St Petersburg in that post, it is all about the black sea.

Two fronts. Even better!