War with Russia

[Pinno718]

On the financial and political front (lots to get through)

Before that:

• All airports in the affected area around this burning oil refinery were shut down but that's just a minor inconvenience. Ushakov was moaning about the fact that Trump failed to convince Zelensky to not hit refineries. "It's like he [Zelensky} is ignoring him [Trump]... ...they [Ukraine] defied him1...". Winter is coming and waiting in your car in Russia in a fuel line in mid winter is going to be fun...
• Brutal 5 weeks for Russian aviation. Among the losses: October 29 — Marinovka, Volgograd Oblast: Two Su-34 fighter-bombers destroyed in a Ukrainian Neptune missile strike. October 21 — Kaliningrad Oblast: One Su-30SM fighter crashed. October 15 — Borisoglebsk, Voronezh Oblast: Four Su-34 fighter-bombers destroyed and two more damaged in a Ukrainian strike. October 4 — Khanskaya, Adygea: One Su-34 and one Su-35 destroyed in a Ukrainian operation. October 1 — Voronezh Oblast: One Mi-8 helicopter lost in a crash. September 29 — Amur Oblast: One Tu-95MS strategic bomber crashed. Another aircraft reportedly burned at Akhtubinsk airfield on October 29, although its type and the circumstances remain unclear. The losses span thousands of kilometers, from Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea to Russia's Far East. Ukraine is destroying Russian aircraft on the ground, while crashes and other incidents are adding to Moscow's aviation losses.
• Russia strikes the 9th ship off the coast of Bulgaria. The French navy has informed Bulgarian authorities about naval drones but Bulgarians chose not to react. Their govt is a pro Russian cabal

Finance/Political

• The cash flow crisis deepens as all officers not currently serving on the frontline will be skipping Decembers pay. This was covered by Russian media outlet Verstka.
• St Petersburg is cutting the number of civil servants by 15%
• Net loss of Russian coal companies could amount to 324bn Rubles by EOY. (£3.01bn). 70% of coal companies suffering losses. So much for Putin's Russia 2.0.
• Insurance companies have to bite the bullet as 'acts of god' indemnity on claims as Russia is officially not at war - it's a special military operation. Ring a bell? Insurance companies across Russia record losses for the 3rd qtr of 2026. Net profits fall by 50%.
• Criticising the govt on the internet is now a criminal offence with sentences up to 6 years being rolled out.
• Having VPN's and disappearing messages is also an offence. All govt. officials have full, normal access.
• Mass govt. sponsored press gangs paid 100k Rubles per month (approx. £950) are literally kidnapping people off the streets. Estimates are iro 100k people so far. Training is a mere 3 days before deployment.
• WH upset at the anti-Russian rhetoric and call multiple European leaders to tone it down !? [Reuters] Pentagon tells Europeans to cool their rhetoric on Russia
• Trumps aides are leaning on US oil companies to accept Russian diesel except given the threat of future prosecution, there is widespread reluctance in bi-partisan pushback
• Trump pressures Lithuania to break potash sanctions on Belarus. Ha ha. The Lithuanians aren't going to budge. Re: Potash purchases from Canada tariffed out of existence so Trump thinks he's going to get it out of Belarus even though the cost of the potash will be significantly higher even if he did manage to get it out of land locked Belarus through EU countries strictly adhering to the sanctions protocols.
• Huge package for Ukraine by our chancellor John Healey which includes:

£7bn in economic support for 3 years including world bank guarantees and grants
£3bn in UK support for military capacity
£500m in military funding for urgent air defence before winter

• Poland arrests 55 year old on charges of espionage. He had hundreds of thousands of photographs of Polish infrastructure in his possession including railway networks and sub stations.
• Russia storms German media with thousands of posts. One of the threads is that the German Green party have secret plans to limit toilet flushing to 3 times per day. This is the sort of sh*t that unfortunately sticks amongst voters.
• Game of Thrones star Nicolai Coster-Waldau pictured sleeping in the Kyiv underground during a bombing raid. He's there showing his support.

 

[Pinno718]

well that was a load of effort for sod all

I can refer back to it because I often get asked where I get my info from. So it's there for future reference. I suprised myself in the number of media outlets/streams that I have collated over the past few years.
I am so f*cking sick and tired of this war and seeing expensive Russian stuff burn is cathartic.

 

[Pblakeney]

It should be remembered that Ukraine doesn't have to win, they just have to not lose.
That appears to be a difficult concept for some.

 

[Pinno718]

Ukraine will never defeat Russia. Do you think one day they’ll say you know what it’s cost us so much now let’s sign a peace deal?

You moron.
Russia cannot be trusted. Time and time again, they break whatever promises they make. Ukraine cannot and will not trust Russia in any peace deal. Russia has taken Ukrainian land and it does not belong to them. Russia is killing civilians on a daily basis and there is no reason whatsoever that they would honour a peace deal or that Ukraine will be safe in the future.
Imagine if you are a relative of a civilian killed by random attacks by Russia or relative of those tortured and murdered souls during the first few months of the Russian occupation of Ukrainian land and some orange sh*t gibbon in the Whitehouse is telling you to accept a peace deal or else simply because he wants to cash in on minerals and oil regardless of people's lives and the suffering that they have gone through and on the other side, a midget gargoyle happy to commit genocide and torture and assassinations and you're telling me that Ukraine should accept a peace deal?!

Russia's propaganda tentacles reach far and wide and are having devastating political consequences - fact. So how would a peace deal help Europe? How does Russian propaganda to which you have been bought by make Europe safer?

Russia has targeted Europeans directly through drone attacks - Leipzig just recently, ships off the coast of Bulgaria, places in Poland. The map of strikes is considerable - is this justifiable in your eyes?! Is the killing of 14 people standing on a railway platform waiting to get on a train justifiable? Is the torture and killing and disposing in a mass grave of 500 people justifiable? FACT by the way - verified by independent monitors. Atrocities committed by Russians is not acceptable in any scenario unless of course, there is something innately wrong with your morality.

 

[AndyRM]

Ukraine will never defeat Russia. Do you think one day they’ll say you know what it’s cost us so much now let’s sign a peace deal?
Stopping the war stops their flow of money.
Only the tax payers suffer. I suggest you go read War Is a Racket : Original Edition by Smedley D. Butler. The only mind washed are you guys nodding your heads to the BBC.

Considering your posting output is basically conspiracy theory claptrap I'm amazed you've actually read something worthwhile.

 

[Pblakeney]

Russia cannot be trusted. Time and time again, they break whatever promises they make. Ukraine cannot and will not trust Russia in any peace deal. Russia has taken Ukrainian land and it does not belong to them. Russia is killing civilians on a daily basis and there is no reason whatsoever that they would honour a peace deal or that Ukraine will be safe in the future.

Just to repeat something that intelligent people know.
Ukraine had a peace deal with Russia. Putin didn't like it. He is as trustworthy as Donnie, which is to say, not in the slightest.

 

[Psamathe]

You moron.

Considering your posting output is basically conspiracy theory claptrap I'm amazed you've actually read something worthwhile.

I wouldn't bother.
In the past the forum has had experience of posters who don't discuss and just shout their handler's more extreme views. Nothing adjusts those views so most others have something better to do with their time than reply (replying is a bit like shouting at your jar of peanut butter because it's empty.

 

[Pinno718]

It should be remembered that Ukraine doesn't have to win, they just have to not lose.
That appears to be a difficult concept for some.

Sorry, long post.

I really don't know. It's clear that Putin wants to pursue his Russia 2.0 ambition regardless of human life and seemingly, regardless of the Russian economy now struggling to support the war. He is becoming more and more isolated with the loss off Assad, Orban, now Serbia and Chechnya seemingly flexing and rumours abound they want to break the Kremlin apron strings in the face of a weakened Russia militarily where it wouldn't take much to completely over extend Russia's control if it had to firefight on another front.
IMHO, Putin cannot loose - he's put himself in a corner. So where does that leave us and how long can this conflict go on for - which is my question rather than who can win it. Wars are won and lost on resources, rarely outright physical victory unless odds are severely stacked.

Meanwhile (and this is my opinion), we see the ramping up of pressure on Trump and the massive escalation of propaganda. We are also witnessing pretty aggressive rhetoric towards Europe. There has been a build up of Russian troops on the borders of the Baltic states just like there was prior to the Ukraine invasion and there has bee plenty of Russian rhetoric/propaganda about literally conquering Europe and using nukes. These are not simply Russian sycophants shouting their mouths off; the mainstream TV commentators are well orchestrated to support the hybrid aggression and so, back to the beginning of this paragraph - I personally think that the physical, material moves of aggression is pure bluff because the reality is that Russia is in deep deep trouble financially. A superpower does not loose 50,000 troops in 1 month and simultaneously, loose a lot of the ground they captured if it wasn't in trouble. A superpower would protect and have defences against the critical infrastructure that generates the income that feeds the war economy. A superpower would protect the very machinery (aircraft etc) that delivers outcomes. A superpower mobilising masses coercively cannot possibly physically attack Estonia, Finland, Lithuania etc when currently, they are short of military hardware and personnel or the frontline, let alone another front. Imagine, the 100k estimated coercive mobilisation numbers at current rates of loss is gone, dead in 2 months.

So I am optimistic that Russia will collapse eventually. When is another thing but I have not mentioned the internal strife and building animosity of the anointed rich who have to look over their shoulders whilst simultaneously, watching their power and their fortunes disappear. Add that they have to display loyalty to the very man who is the architect of this bind and if the metaphorical fingers are pointing, it won't be at Ukraine. Internally, Putin has problems. His inner circle gets smaller and smaller and weaker and weaker and I would not be surprised if a Brutus figure puts the knife in. 24 generals either assassinated by Ukraine or by the Russians themselves since 2022. He even killed his number 1 facilitator Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Russia still has over 2000 tons of gold bullion even though they have sold hundreds of tons of it to support the war and import weapons from allies. This is holding up the fort but convincing those around him that it will all be worth it in the end starts to sound hollow after almost 5 years and why would they want to see their own future (and Russia's status) get pi$$ed in the wind when material gains have proved to be nominal and hugely expensive so far? Futile even.

I'll leave you with another question: how long and how much would it take to rebuild Russia back to the status of superpower if the war ended today given the damage to oil infrastructure, massive military hardware losses, global environmental restrictions and antipathy coupled with a demographic catastrophe?

 

[Pinno718]

I wouldn't bother.
In the past the forum has had experience of posters who don't discuss and just shout their handler's more extreme views. Nothing adjusts those views so most others have something better to do with their time than reply (replying is a bit like shouting at your jar of peanut butter because it's empty.

Yes, you are quite correct.

 

[Pblakeney]

Sorry, long post.

I really don't know. It's clear that Putin wants to pursue his Russia 2.0 ambition regardless of human life and seemingly, regardless of the Russian economy now struggling to support the war. He is becoming more and more isolated with the loss off Assad, Orban, now Serbia and Chechnya seemingly flexing and rumours abound they want to break the Kremlin apron strings in the face of a weakened Russia militarily where it wouldn't take much to completely over extend Russia's control if it had to firefight on another front.
IMHO, Putin cannot loose - he's put himself in a corner. So where does that leave us and how long can this conflict go on for - which is my question rather than who can win it. Wars are won and lost on resources, rarely outright physical victory unless odds are severely stacked.

Meanwhile (and this is my opinion), we see the ramping up of pressure on Trump and the massive escalation of propaganda. We are also witnessing pretty aggressive rhetoric towards Europe. There has been a build up of Russian troops on the borders of the Baltic states just like there was prior to the Ukraine invasion and there has bee plenty of Russian rhetoric/propaganda about literally conquering Europe and using nukes. These are not simply Russian sycophants shouting their mouths off; the mainstream TV commentators are well orchestrated to support the hybrid aggression and so, back to the beginning of this paragraph - I personally think that the physical, material moves of aggression is pure bluff because the reality is that Russia is in deep deep trouble financially. A superpower does not loose 50,000 troops in 1 month and simultaneously, loose a lot of the ground they captured if it wasn't in trouble. A superpower would protect and have defences against the critical infrastructure that generates the income that feeds the war economy. A superpower would protect the very machinery (aircraft etc) that delivers outcomes. A superpower mobilising masses coercively cannot possibly physically attack Estonia, Finland, Lithuania etc when currently, they are short of military hardware fand personnle or the frontline, let alone another front. Imagine, the 100k estimated coercive mobilisation numbers at current rates of loss is gone, dead in 2 months.

So I am optimistic that Russia will collapse eventually. When is another thing but I have not mentioned the internal strife and building animosity of the anointed rich who have to look over their shoulders whilst simultaneously, watching their power and their fortunes disappear. Add that they have to display loyalty to the very man who is the architect of this bind and if the metaphorical fingers are pointing, it won't be at Ukraine. Internally, Putin has problems. His inner circle gets smaller and smaller and weaker and weaker and I would not be surprised if a Brutus figure puts the knife in. 24 generals ither assassinated by Ukraine or by the Russians themselves since 2022. He even killed his number 1 facilitator Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Russia still has over 2000 tons of gold bullion even though they have sold hundreds of tons of it to support the war and import weapons from allies. This is holding up the fort but convincing those around him that it will al be worth it in the end starts to sound hollow after almost 5 years and why would they want to see their own future (and Russia's status) get pi$$ed in the wind when material gains have proved to be nominal and hugely expensive so far? Futile even.

I'll leave you with another question: how long and how much would it take to rebuild Russia back to the status of superpower if the war ended today given the damage to oil infrastructure, massive military hardware losses, global environmental restrictions and antipathy coupled with a demographic catastrophe?

Putin falling off a balcony would suffice.
To answer your final question with a question (sorry), do they have to be a superpower? All seems so last decade.