War with Russia

[secretsqirrel]

I promise I won't continue this idea to boost my post count. Not least as it makes speed reading tricky.

I have boosted your reaction ratio as well.

You owe me.

 

[briantrumpet]

I see we're on the next page anyway. Oh well.

To get it back on track, Phillips O'Brien is a good read, and he's got a new column out this morning.

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-211-the-week-in-which?r=1tgexa

The stories this week are somewhat similar to last week’s. The battlefield is turning more and more into a quagmire for the Russians and Russian losses, if anything, are growing and might be higher than we thought even last week. There are reports now that the Russians might suffer a total of 600,000 dead by the end of the year. At the same time, the long-range campaign shows that the Ukrainians are continuing to hammer away at Russian oil production and refining, and as of now they are not backing down. The one area of clear Russian success and advantage is the one that the US has enabled and supported, the long-range bombardment of Ukraine. Ukraine is still struggling in this area, having been left badly exposed by American actions.

That reinforces the point that I tried to make last week: that Donald Trump is arguably the one thing standing between Vladimir Putin and military failure. This week confirmed that in the areas where the US is not pulling out all the stops to help Russia (depriving Ukraine of air defense and turning off Starshield/Starlink), the Russians continue to struggle. Indeed, Russian losses continue to mount to levels that were considered impossible earlier in the year. And the Ukrainians do seem to be maintaining the pace and direction of their long-range bombing strike campaign.

Of course the US is helping Russia and this has provided the Russians with their areas of advantage—as this week continued to emphasize as well.

 

[briantrumpet]

I have boosted your reaction ratio as well.

You owe me.

🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺

 

[secretsqirrel]

Why are the estate agents using NATO membership as a bargaining tool?
It’s not theirs to bargain with.

 

[briantrumpet]

Incidentally, from that O'Brien column, worth noting that Musk is limiting Starshield speeds for Ukraine again. O'Brien notes that he thinks that this confirms that Trump will use this window before the new Congress is installed in January to help Putin as much as he can.

 

[briantrumpet]

Why are the estate agents using NATO membership as a bargaining tool?
It’s not theirs to bargain with.

They are trying any/every angle, no matter how ludicrous, to butter up Putin.

Kaja Kallas lays out with admirable clarity how Moscow 'negotiates', and the estate agents are falling into line.

https://bsky.app/profile/brexitbin.bsky.social/post/3n2b7a3pl7c2x

 

[Pinno718]

Incidentally, from that O'Brien column, worth noting that Musk is limiting Starshield speeds for Ukraine again. O'Brien notes that he thinks that this confirms that Trump will use this window before the new Congress is installed in January to help Putin as much as he can.

Wot I posted the other day except if it's a post more than a short paragraph, it's tl:dr for you.

Apparently, Ukraine is now using Israeli satellites for the 'get around'.

• Starshield speeds have been restricted again hampering Ukrainian efforts to shoot down Shahed drones. It's notable that the speed restrictions over occupied territories only by immediately after the Abu Dhabi talks talks, 6 power stations in Ukraine were hit.

 

[Psamathe]

Why are the estate agents using NATO membership as a bargaining tool?
It’s not theirs to bargain with.

From my understanding it highlights how little the estate agents appreciate about what's going on:
1. Ukraine's Constitution means they cannot cede territory. So any giving away territory means a referendum and how are Ukrainians going to get a free vote in any referendum given that under the constitution (with no territory ceded that would mean those in Crimea getting a vote, in Donbas getting votes, etc.)

2. NATO's constitution blocks any new members joining whilst they have any territorial disputes (Article 10?).

Of course constitutions can be changed but changing Ukraine's constitution could be challenging given they don't have access to significant areas of their constitutional country and NATO Article 10 changes can be vetoed by any member (should they feel Ukraine joining might eg risk Article 5 being "tested").

Hence estate agents just showing how far they are out of their depth.

 

[Pblakeney]

It is quite simple, they are stupid. Greedy and stupid.
Zelenskyy will not cede territory, and Putin will not agree to Ukraine joining NATO. Simple as that, dead in the water.

 

[AndyRM]

I promise I won't continue this idea to boost my post count. Not least as it makes speed reading tricky.

You could probably take the next six months off without anyone getting near your post count...

 

[briantrumpet]

You could probably take the next six months off without anyone getting near your post count...

Hopefully better health in the coming months might mean I'm out on the bike more. You'd better pray for decent cycling weather for me.

 

[briantrumpet]

That said, I've got a long way to go before matching this over in the Other Place.

 

[briantrumpet]

For Pinno: