Sure, it’s possible to explain away aspects of this shocking performance. Some of it comes from fuels, which is more likely to reflect declining North Sea oil production rather than Brexit. And Britain’s goods export performance with non-EU countries is about as poor as it is with the EU, which suggests a problem with the UK as a whole. Services exports have done OK.
But it is impossible to construct a coherent argument that Brexit has benefited the UK economy. Britain’s diminished role feeds vigorous debate on exactly how much damage has been done and whether it is wiser to
suck up to the US or the EU in the hope of being thrown some scraps from one of their tables.
It was painful to live through this experience in Britain. Modern capitalist economies are extremely resilient, so there is rarely that cathartic moment where the whole country realises it has made a terrible mistake and steps away from the edge. So there is little doubt that the Trump administration will continue to peddle fantasies about its strategic brilliance, while fighting internally over day-to-day tactics and trade deals that at best recreate the advantages that the US already had. Trade is relatively unimportant to the US economy, and it can withstand a lot of this nonsense without necessarily crumbling.
But a stagflationary shock is just that. When it comes to a reckoning in some years’ time, the US economy will be weaker and its standing in the world diminished. Brexit teaches you that.
