BRFR Cake Stop 'breaking news' miscellany

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Rosebank is being presented as a solution to energy security and/or a solution to a short term problem. It isnt either of these things. It is just a medium term economic consideration.

All of the talk of "we will never invest in the UK unless" is total bollocks. These companies just want it to go ahead and absolutely won't decide not to invest in future on principle if there's money in it.
 

Pross

Guru
I am very persuaded towards the Jackdaw decision, although I would be disappointed if Rosebank went ahead.

Probably one for the BBC thread but listening to Charlie Staite struggling to understand whichever minister it was trying to explain the differences between the two on Breakfast this morning. He seemed to assume that the Government saying the arguments in approving Jackdaw don't apply to Rosebank as meaning Rosebank is going to be refused whereas the point being made was that other than both requiring drilling they are very different (Jackdaw being mainly gas going straight into pipes that provide directly to the UK, Rosebank being mainly oil that will get exported for refining and on for sale to the international markets). Neither Charlie or Naga seem great at understanding the points being made to them, much like Jeremy Vine.
 
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Probably one for the BBC thread but listening to Charlie Staite struggling to understand whichever minister it was trying to explain the differences between the two on Breakfast this morning. He seemed to assume that the Government saying the arguments in approving Jackdaw don't apply to Rosebank as meaning Rosebank is going to be refused whereas the point being made was that other than both requiring drilling they are very different (Jackdaw being mainly gas going straight into pipes that provide directly to the UK, Rosebank being mainly oil that will get exported for refining and on for sale to the international markets). Neither Charlie or Naga seem great and understanding the points being made to them, much like Jeremy Vine.
I suspect Rosebank IS going to be refused, precisely because its a solution in a decade to a problem happening now. It also itsn really a solution at all.

Jackdaw is more immediate and at least provides some security of a potentialially scarce supply. Whereas there's no scarcity of oil, its just expensive.

At least, that's my understanding of the current arguments.
 
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Psamathe

Squire
I am very persuaded towards the Jackdaw decision, although I would be disappointed if Rosebank went ahead.
And the owners of the field are already well prepared. They've already setup business structures to apparently avoid £1bn in UK tax ...

Shell and Equinor’s have setup a new company "Adura". The deal allows Shell to write off £1.3 billion in UK tax bills and Equinor to obtain income as it struggles to get Rosebank off the ground. And it will employ 27 people! (That'll be solving unemployment in the area).
Shell has a long history of exploiting the UK’s generous tax system to minimise its tax payments. Last year, the company paid zero tax on North Sea drilling – receiving £12.4 million back from the government in the form of tax relief, decommissioning overpayments and field development costs. Shell avoided corporation tax on its North Sea oil operations despite making tens of billions in global profits and sending tens of billions to its shareholders.
(from https://globalwitness.org/en/press-...ill-see-oil-giant-dodge-13-billion-in-uk-tax/)
Meanwhile calls to reduce Government assistance for renewable energy generation grows ever louder ('cos apparently "we can't afford it").
 
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secretsqirrel

spiteful class warrior
It's being criticised as both a tiny field ("so why bother?") and as a catastrophe for the planet. Schrödinger's Jackdaw. Politically, Burnham couldn't win on this one.

It gave him another opportunity to batter Badenoch at PMQs yesterday when she welcomed the decision but asked why it took so long.
 

Psamathe

Squire
Rosebank is being presented as a solution to energy security and/or a solution to a short term problem. It isnt either of these things. It is just a medium term economic consideration.

All of the talk of "we will never invest in the UK unless" is total bollocks. These companies just want it to go ahead and absolutely won't decide not to invest in future on principle if there's money in it.
And Gov. is already spouting rubbish about it. All oil from Rosebank would not come to the UK (as we don't have refineries for it) but go directly to the Netherlands for refining.

Owners of Rosebank are expecting to make £1.5 bn profit yet it's UK Government (our money) that would be paying 80% of the development costs (through tax subsidies)
 
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briantrumpet

briantrumpet

Timewaster
It gave him another opportunity to batter Badenoch at PMQs yesterday when she welcomed the decision but asked why it took so long.

She really doesn't think past her 'gotcha!' lines, does she? It's pleasing to see Burnham very comfortable just relying on his memory and ability to form coherent sentences to casually squash her scripted attack lines.
 
And the owners of the field are already well prepared. They've already setup business structures to apparently avoid £1bn in UK tax ...

Shell and Equinor’s have setup a new company "Adura". The deal allows Shell to write off £1.3 billion in UK tax bills and Equinor to obtain income as it struggles to get Rosebank off the ground.

Meanwhile calls to reduce Government assistance for renewable energy generation grows ever louder ('cos apparently "we can't afford it").
I'm sympathetic to the "we can't afford it" argument.

Not literally, but instead that making the UK net zero is going to be costly, and the economic harm is minimised if we are at the forefront of this globally, but not too far ahead. The difference in climate terms of us doing it 10 years sooner is basically zero, so the costs of trying are basically fairly futile.

You will argue that climate change itself is going to cost even more. That may well be, in which case the economic argument is why pay more for both, when there is sod all we can do about climate change while idiots are in charge of vastly higher CO2 emitting countries.

Slowing down process to a target isnt the same as reversing course like in the US, and the distinction between that target being a long time or a very long time away makes probably difference whatsoever to the global discussions.
 
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Psamathe

Squire
It's being criticised as both a tiny field ("so why bother?") and as a catastrophe for the planet. Schrödinger's Jackdaw. Politically, Burnham couldn't win on this one.
But in Nov when Burnham attends COP31 it will give him the opportunity to tell all those other countries "do as I say not as I do" so he can condescend to tell them to stop burning oil, to stop cutting down their forests, to take the economic damage, to watch their countries disappear below the rising sea levels but that we in the UK are concerned about our economy. That'll go down well.
 
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And Gov. is already spouting rubbish about it. All oil from Rosebank would not come to the UK (as we don't have refineries for it) but go directly to the Netherlands for refining.

Owners of Rosebank are expecting to make £1.5 bn profit yet it's UK Government (our money) that would be paying 80% of the development costs (through tax subsidies)

I belive the government is saying exactly this. The previous Tory government spouted this rubbish though.
 

secretsqirrel

spiteful class warrior
Daily Mail as ever

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icowden

Pharaoh
She really doesn't think past her 'gotcha!' lines, does she? It's pleasing to see Burnham very comfortable just relying on his memory and ability to form coherent sentences to casually squash her scripted attack lines.

Which is really what we expected from Starmer given that he is a KC.
 

Psamathe

Squire
Slowing down process to a target isnt the same as reversing course like in the US
I actually unsure how much the US is in reality slowing down. Trümp makes lots of noise about discarding regulations, etc. but eg car designers need fewer designs covering wider markets so a design for those few US states without pollution laws (ie following Trümp) just isn't economically viable. Similarly a lot of investment in hydrocarbon infrastructure is long term and investors need long term confidence and they'll recognise Trǔmp has a limited term (in the scale of their investments) and that Climate Change will be addressed so they will not be so ready to invest. undoubtedly Trũmp is making things worse but I suspect not as bad as the noise from Truth Social might suggest.

And other major carbon emitters are making good progress (at least some).
 
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