Budget 2025

[Pblakeney]

Reeves was one of the main sources of that speculation. eg


If a Chancellor makes statement indicating the state of the economy people, markets, etc. will react and adjust their behaviour according to those statements so they need to be able to believe they are true. "It's politics" is no excuse for making known untrue statements to the public/markets.

The statement was given in response to the speculation.
The markets etc. went "meh" so it worked on that level because they know how things are.

 

[Psamathe]

The markets seem to have given a collective shrug to the whole thing.

The challenge will be next time.

Need to distinguish between the decisions made in the budget and untruths told prior to the budget. Markets will now be reacting to the decisions in the budget. Next the when significant "state of the economy" information is presented it will be hard for them to decide whether or not they are being lied to.

Many are conflating the budget decisions with untruths about the state of the economy prior to the budget. eg on BBC R4 this morning they were interviewing a Minister and kept asking about that there was a surplus according to official data yet Minster kept answering about how important "headroom" is, so interviewer ask again, get an unrelated answer again, so interviewer asks again, etc.

 

[CXRAndy]

And they time in the future when t h e shoot hits the fan

 

[briantrumpet]

The statement was given in response to the speculation.
The markets etc. went "meh" so it worked on that level because they know how things are.

I'd like to think that w could return to the 'purdah' we used to have, but I suspect that ship has sailed in these days of incessant news, tweets and media speculation, and we'll just have to get used to the Chancellor 'managing expectations'.

 

[Psamathe]

I'd like to think that w could return to the 'purdah' we used to have, but I suspect that ship has sailed in these days of incessant news, tweets and media speculation, and we'll just have to get used to the Chancellor 'managing expectations'.

Maybe worse this budget as Gov was testing out how different possibilities would be reacted to by markets & public ("pitch rolling"?).

Many commentators have also said how setting the budget so late made speculation a lot worse.

eg

The late date of the Budget has only added to the sense of chaos, allowing dark speculation to spread like wildfire and fostering the perception that the government is essentially rudderless.

The natural response to this among investors is to steer clear, while businesses put their plans on hold and assume a defensive posture, seeking to preserve cash reserves and margins, focusing on firing rather than hiring.
(from https://www.independent.co.uk/voice...eeves-economy-markets-chaos-tax-b2872057.html)

 

[Bromptonaut]

I'd like to think that w could return to the 'purdah' we used to have, but I suspect that ship has sailed in these days of incessant news, tweets and media speculation, and we'll just have to get used to the Chancellor 'managing expectations'.

That.

Exactly.

 

[briantrumpet]

BBC R4 this morning they were interviewing a Minister and kept asking about that there was a surplus according to official data yet Minster kept answering about how important "headroom" is, so interviewer ask again, get an unrelated answer again, so interviewer asks again, etc.

That's because it's so obvious that there's an agenda to blow this out of all proportion to bring down Reeves, the only response is to go "meh".

Contrast that with the enthusiasm they gave to Truss's lunatic budget, and that tells you all you need to know about the same titles that are gunning for Reeves on the thinnest of pretexts.

As Stephen Bush said, there are better and more valid criticisms of the budget, but they need proper, long-term thinking and scrutiny. But that doesn't sell papers or get the proprietors (and Chris Mason) pleasuring themselves in front of the mirror in the same way. They want a scalp *now*!

 

[Pblakeney]

The challenge will be next time.

Need to distinguish between the decisions made in the budget and untruths told prior to the budget. Markets will now be reacting to the decisions in the budget. Next the when significant "state of the economy" information is presented it will be hard for them to decide whether or not they are being lied to.

Many are conflating the budget decisions with untruths about the state of the economy prior to the budget. eg on BBC R4 this morning they were interviewing a Minister and kept asking about that there was a surplus according to official data yet Minster kept answering about how important "headroom" is, so interviewer ask again, get an unrelated answer again, so interviewer asks again, etc.

I find the notion of "surplus" questionable, if not downright laughable.
We are £2.537t in debt, while servicing this debt is burning up 10% of GDP and reducing it by 0%. It is rising.

 

[Dorset Boy]

Well, I blame all the people doing the speculation pre budget, while speculation was spooking the markets. As said prior, people should wait to see what's in the budget before criticising it. Reeves was responding to criticism. If she'd said nothing then things would have escalated.

Anyone thinking there wouldn't be tax rises was deluded. Anyone thinking there won't be further tax rises is deluded.

Also, no politician of any colour wants to come clean on the real state of the economy. The electorate cannot handle the truth. (Respect to Jack)

Reeves and her team were leaking their ideas, seeing the reaction, then changing things, then leaking those ideas to again see the reaction. They were the main source of speculation because they were seeing how people would react to their ideas.
She lied about the state of the economy, when she could easily have said she needed to build in some more headroom due to the changed world with the orange moron in the White House.

 

[Pblakeney]

Reeves and her team were leaking their ideas, seeing the reaction, then changing things, then leaking those ideas to again see the reaction. They were the main source of speculation because they were seeing how people would react to their ideas.
She lied about the state of the economy, when she could easily have said she needed to build in some more headroom due to the changed world with the orange moron in the White House.

The majority of the electorate, and seemingly media, don't understand headroom and are happy with Donnie as he's not directly affecting us, yet. It's easier to grasp tax increases to pay for something vaguely familiar than complex economics and international diplomacy.

 

[CXRAndy]

BBC confirm LCR lied

 

[bobzmyunkle]

BBC confirm LCR lied

The BBC? Or are you referring to that greasy little twerp Chris Mason?
Either way it's just an opinion.

 

[CXRAndy]

The BBC? Or are you referring to that greasy little twerp Chris Mason?
Either way it's just an opinion.

Opinion that the majority of the country agree with

 

[Beebo]

Reeves and her team were leaking their ideas, seeing the reaction, then changing things, then leaking those ideas to again see the reaction. They were the main source of speculation because they were seeing how people would react to their ideas.
She lied about the state of the economy, when she could easily have said she needed to build in some more headroom due to the changed world with the orange moron in the White House.

I agree with your first point. Endless balloons been up to see which ones get shot down was stupid.
I dont think she lied, she just prioritised headroom and social welfare.

 

[CXRAndy]

I dont think she lied, she just prioritised headroom and social welfare.

Thank god the majority of the population could see it for what it was

Lying c**t Rachel