Donald I, emperor of the world.

[Psamathe]

That's a start. It's clear bullying tactics from Hegseth, mimicking Trump. I'd like to think that sooner or later the dam will burst, and all of a sudden, big companies will realise they are going to lose big time if they don't fight back against the Orange Turd and his enablers... which, at the moment, includes the big companies toeing the Trump line for fear of bullying.

The problem Hegseth (and Trúmp) have is that they are taking on a sector they have no experience of, no knowledge of, don't understand and where those they are attacking have a strong moral stance that in the case of Anthropic is their raison d'etre.

 

[First Aspect]

This pov is a little bit simplistic as doesn't take into consideration that the majority of profits from oil does not go directly into national coffers. After all, most oil in Russia is in private companies hands and the state receives tax revenue from the sales of oil, not direct oil sale revenue. Add latency in that process: sales up, profits 'declared', collect revenue. It's not some sort of immediate windfall. A more subtle hindrance is the fact that Russia is so corrupt and there is so much embezzlement, tax revenues will vary on Kremlin discretion. In the light of Russia's economic plight, individuals are lining their nests more so than before in order to provide themselves options in the event of Putin's fall or a collapsed economy. Loyalties rest on lip service to Putin and creaming off acceptable amounts. If you cream off more than you should, then you can end up being in court on 'corruption' charges and/or your assets seized. This is the variable string that Putin holds on everyone with any authority or money.

This was raised with a few notable commentators on Ukraine adding that Russia is in such dire financial difficulties, this still will not deliver some sort of economic renaissance.
And, Ukraine still keeps hitting refineries and it's becoming easier and easier as air defences are being decimated.

Mmm. Russia is the main winner here, there is no doubt. China will need to switch supply and their best option is Russia. This will prolong the Ukraine war, regardless of corruption. So will the scarcity if arms supply from the US, because no matter who is now paying for US weapons systems, the USs own needs just went up substantially.

But tarrifs and sanctions I hear you cry, if China buys more oil from Russia. Well, for sure they can be threatened against China. But they hold all the cards. Trump is now facing an energy cost crisis in the US due to his own stupidity, which will feed inflationary fears already, so there is not much wiggle room for him to in raise the cost of cheap goods. He will threaten the Federal Reserve to do the opposite of what they should be doing to suppress inflation, and he will gaslight about jobs and prices. But it won't work and eventually he will need to reverse out of this somehow.

As far as I can see, Iran can wait it out. China can bluff it out. The US has boxed itself in. Israel has it's own agenda. Russia can fill it's boots in the meantime.

Yes this is a simplification, but there is still an element of truth in all of these consequences. They will already be factoring into whether they destroy that oil terminal. I actually simply don't think they can, which is why they are trying to occupy the island instead.

 

[Pblakeney]

But it won't work and eventually he will need to reverse out of this somehow.

As far as I can see, Iran can wait it out. China can bluff it out. The US has boxed itself in. Israel has it's own agenda. Russia can fill it's boots in the meantime.

Called it a couple of weeks ago. Iran will do for Donnie as Ukraine has done for Putin.
Neither will back down and withdraw in order to preserve "face", even if it is in their country's best interests.

 

[CXRAndy]

Cuba is in detailed negotiations with US government

 

[Pinno718]

Mmm. Russia is the main winner here, there is no doubt*.

Again, such a simplistic view.
[Sorry long post again. But it's not adequately responded to with sound bites].

*That's where I disagree. Russia's oil revenue is way down partly due to sanctions, partly due to reduced production capacity, partly due to falling value and partly due to mounting logistical constraints. Russia will still be in a huge fiscal deficit even with increased oil sales. This means only temporary alleviation of pressure.
Ukraine is targeting oil infrastructure on a regular basis with impunity. This damaged oil production infrastructure will take years to get back to pre-war production output.
The extra oil revenue is going into a black hole. Please also tell me about the logistical constraints of moving the oil? Tell me that shipping companies are going to increase liability in what was an already high risk environment.
Don't forget, on the back of the US begging Zelensky for help with drone defence, Trump handed over the $250m set aside by congress. Ukraine has managed somehow to make huge gains with limited US support. Ukraine used to send in the odd drone/missile per week, now it's hundreds per day. Literally; this is not an exaggeration (2500 in a 3 day period between March 8th and 10th). They are outstripping Russian progress to the point that Russian defences are dazed and confused and impotent.
The second most important micro-chip factory, essential for missiles, defence and guidance systems was wiped out - in daylight, no arial resistance whatsoever just a few days ago. If you think Russia is going to be suddenly upheld by this perceived 'boom' in oil sales, then you're in cloud Lego land (it does not go back together that quickly). The military and domestic infrastructure are both in bits. Lets look at some key facts:

The national rail network essential for Russian supply logistics is $52bn in debt. They're struggling to pay drivers and they are struggling to repair damage by a) fragmenting, underfunded infrastructure b) internal sabotage and c) Ukrainian attacks. Like a lot of underfunded, corrupt Russian infrastructure, it's hanging together by a thread.
The Russians have lost more fighting men since WW2 than any other conflict. Think of the long term demographic implications. How on earth are they supposed to re-populate Russia to the point where it can actually function? Oh yeah - I know, with this extra oil sales, they can buy babies.

How is it going to re-build it's military capacity overnight? You can purchase your way back but purchasing has limited long term scope and financial sustainability without internal production capacity.
[I can provide links to all the videos where Russian military facilities are being destroyed on a daily basis - million dollar defence systems, radar vehicles etc shredded].
The other key point glossed over by many is the inherent corruption. It's in so many people's interests to continue the war on Ukraine because they benefit from the military contracts and subsequent embezzlement within that. Many argue that is the weakness behind why the 3 day SMO did not work.
Russia is not going to fix the endemic corruption on an apparent oil sale boom (see previous post), in fact, it's just going to simply re-enforce it.
We have seen how lives on the frontline are expendable, considered as 'single use' in the hierarchy because they and Putin do not care about fighting men so long as the military machine keeps paying them. But it's not sustainable. Russia is losing more troops per month than they can recruit and recruitment is dissuading the dregs left over because it's based on lies, lack of training, unpaid wages, unpaid death compensation and almost certain death or end of service through injury. They haven't even got Telegram where families were raising monies through collections and crowd funding because frontline soldiers can't even get socks or underwear and other basic equipment like sleeping bags. But it's okay - looky, we can sell more oil and give out free socks to soldiers. We're bound to overcome those Nazi Ukrainians and their expansionist ideas and anti-Russian agenda with free socks. It's just a matter of time.

Lastly, Russia has lost most of it's allies and is not really in a position to assist Iran, it's more that it has to. [Re: huge Russian air base in Syria closed in January]. Iran was supplying Russia (and vice versa) with drones. Do you think Iran is still supplying Russia with drones? If so, for how much longer?

Like Trump, Putin has too much to juggle and like Trump, balls get dropped. Unlike Trump, Putin stands to personally loose much more if it all goes t*ts up, including his own life. Trump is profiting from this and do not forget that: every action of his is transactional [see oil price yo-yoing on the back of Trump's statements and betting on tariff swings].