This morning it feels far more likely that China is going to get involved, if the moron end up destroying the oil terminal at Kharg. Best case scenario would be an economic miracle in Russia.
This pov is a little bit simplistic as doesn't take into consideration that the majority of profits from oil does not go directly into national coffers. After all, most oil in Russia is in private companies hands and the state receives tax revenue from the sales of oil, not direct oil sale revenue. Add latency in that process: sales up, profits 'declared', collect revenue. It's not some sort of immediate windfall. A more subtle hindrance is the fact that Russia is so corrupt and there is so much embezzlement, tax revenues will vary on Kremlin discretion. In the light of Russia's economic plight, individuals are lining their nests more so than before in order to provide themselves options in the event of Putin's fall or a collapsed economy. Loyalties rest on lip service to Putin and creaming off acceptable amounts. If you cream off more than you should, then you can end up being in court on 'corruption' charges and/or your assets seized. This is the variable string that Putin holds on everyone with any authority or money.
This was raised with a few notable commentators on Ukraine adding that Russia is in such dire financial difficulties, this still will not deliver some sort of economic renaissance.
And, Ukraine still keeps hitting refineries and it's becoming easier and easier as air defences are being decimated.
