Donald I, emperor of the world.

[Pblakeney]

Starmer's fallacy is that if Trúmp comes back and says "We will do <x>, achieve <y> and all go home" Starmer says "good plan, we're in" and once military forces involved Trǔmp starts "we want <z>" then 20 mins later "<z> is just daft, we require <something completely different>" etc.

I'm struggling to come up with an end game that would suit everyone and therefore have a peaceful solution.

Well, I can, but Donnie ripped up all the previous negotiated peace plans so what's next?

Update edit: How about Obama's plan but with TACO's name on it instead. Would that suffice TACO's ego?

 

[First Aspect]

Obama's plan is now dead, because the US can't be trusted. At least for the next 2 1/2 years.

In the next few weeks I think the US will reverse out of this and the rest of the region will be left try to broker some sort of deescalation. Israel don't seem to be interested in Iran as such, beyond short term weakening and will continue to attack Lebanon. Hard to tell if there was ever a genuine belief in Israel that the Iranian regime would fall. I doubt it.

Most likely in the longer term the gulf states will stop putting time end energy into vanity projects such as elongate indoor cities or artificial islands, and build export capacity to somewhere other than the wrong side of the Straight of Hormuz.

The overall instability.of the region has just been ingrained for another generation and that won't change.

And there endeth my predictions for today.

 

[Pblakeney]

Obama's plan is now dead, because the US can't be trusted. At least for the next 2 1/2 years.

In the next few weeks I think the US will reverse out of this and the rest of the region will be left try to broker some sort of deescalation. Israel don't seem to be interested in Iran as such, beyond short term weakening and will continue to attack Lebanon. Hard to tell if there was ever a genuine belief in Israel that the Iranian regime would fall. I doubt it.

Most likely in the longer term the gulf states will stop putting time end energy into vanity projects such as elongate indoor cities or artificial islands, and build export capacity to somewhere other than the wrong side of the Straight of Hormuz.

The overall instability.of the region has just been ingrained for another generation and that won't change.

And there endeth my predictions for today.

Can't say that I disagree with any of that. 👍

 

[Psamathe]

..., because the US can't be trusted. At least for the next 2 1/2 years.

A big issue that is wider than the conflict - that it's the US that cannot be trusted not Trũmp. ie Trúmp might have caused that loss of trust but it's the US that knowingly put him in post.

So even if next President is 110% trustworthy, who's to say that 6½ years the US doesn't elect Trümp Mk 2 who then tears-up previous agreements. That it has happened means it can happen again and to a large degree the US electorate had a lot of knowledge as to Trũmp nature yet they still elected him. Hence loss of confidence in US rather than in current President.

 

[Beebo]

A big issue that is wider than the conflict - that it's the US that cannot be trusted not Trũmp. ie Trúmp might have caused that loss of trust but it's the US that knowingly put him in post.

So even if next President is 110% trustworthy, who's to say that 6½ years the US doesn't elect Trümp Mk 2 who then tears-up previous agreements. That it has happened means it can happen again and to a large degree the US electorate had a lot of knowledge as to Trũmp nature yet they still elected him. Hence loss of confidence in US rather than in current President.

It’s why Iran won’t negotiate.
The last deal they made was ripped up without warning, so what benefit does negotiating gain them?

 

[TailWindHome]

Easiest way to have uninterrupted shipping is to completely remove Irans threat of threatening to close the straits when it wants to flex it's regional port over the other nations.

What's stopping Trump doing this?

(Obviously setting aside previous claims that it has been done)

 

[CXRAndy]

It’s why Iran won’t negotiate.
The last deal they made was ripped up without warning, so what benefit does negotiating gain them?

In that case wipe the regime off the face of the earth

 

[briantrumpet]

Most of NCAP too.

 

[briantrumpet]

Was this the night Trump became 'presidential'?