Donald I, emperor of the world.

[Pblakeney]

Starmer's fallacy is that if Trúmp comes back and says "We will do <x>, achieve <y> and all go home" Starmer says "good plan, we're in" and once military forces involved Trǔmp starts "we want <z>" then 20 mins later "<z> is just daft, we require <something completely different>" etc.

I'm struggling to come up with an end game that would suit everyone and therefore have a peaceful solution.

Well, I can, but Donnie ripped up all the previous negotiated peace plans so what's next?

Update edit: How about Obama's plan but with TACO's name on it instead. Would that suffice TACO's ego?

 

[First Aspect]

Obama's plan is now dead, because the US can't be trusted. At least for the next 2 1/2 years.

In the next few weeks I think the US will reverse out of this and the rest of the region will be left try to broker some sort of deescalation. Israel don't seem to be interested in Iran as such, beyond short term weakening and will continue to attack Lebanon. Hard to tell if there was ever a genuine belief in Israel that the Iranian regime would fall. I doubt it.

Most likely in the longer term the gulf states will stop putting time end energy into vanity projects such as elongate indoor cities or artificial islands, and build export capacity to somewhere other than the wrong side of the Straight of Hormuz.

The overall instability.of the region has just been ingrained for another generation and that won't change.

And there endeth my predictions for today.

 

[Pblakeney]

Obama's plan is now dead, because the US can't be trusted. At least for the next 2 1/2 years.

In the next few weeks I think the US will reverse out of this and the rest of the region will be left try to broker some sort of deescalation. Israel don't seem to be interested in Iran as such, beyond short term weakening and will continue to attack Lebanon. Hard to tell if there was ever a genuine belief in Israel that the Iranian regime would fall. I doubt it.

Most likely in the longer term the gulf states will stop putting time end energy into vanity projects such as elongate indoor cities or artificial islands, and build export capacity to somewhere other than the wrong side of the Straight of Hormuz.

The overall instability.of the region has just been ingrained for another generation and that won't change.

And there endeth my predictions for today.

Can't say that I disagree with any of that. 👍

 

[Psamathe]

..., because the US can't be trusted. At least for the next 2 1/2 years.

A big issue that is wider than the conflict - that it's the US that cannot be trusted not Trũmp. ie Trúmp might have caused that loss of trust but it's the US that knowingly put him in post.

So even if next President is 110% trustworthy, who's to say that 6½ years the US doesn't elect Trümp Mk 2 who then tears-up previous agreements. That it has happened means it can happen again and to a large degree the US electorate had a lot of knowledge as to Trũmp nature yet they still elected him. Hence loss of confidence in US rather than in current President.

 

[Beebo]

A big issue that is wider than the conflict - that it's the US that cannot be trusted not Trũmp. ie Trúmp might have caused that loss of trust but it's the US that knowingly put him in post.

So even if next President is 110% trustworthy, who's to say that 6½ years the US doesn't elect Trümp Mk 2 who then tears-up previous agreements. That it has happened means it can happen again and to a large degree the US electorate had a lot of knowledge as to Trũmp nature yet they still elected him. Hence loss of confidence in US rather than in current President.

It’s why Iran won’t negotiate.
The last deal they made was ripped up without warning, so what benefit does negotiating gain them?

 

[TailWindHome]

Easiest way to have uninterrupted shipping is to completely remove Irans threat of threatening to close the straits when it wants to flex it's regional port over the other nations.

What's stopping Trump doing this?

(Obviously setting aside previous claims that it has been done)

 

[CXRAndy]

It’s why Iran won’t negotiate.
The last deal they made was ripped up without warning, so what benefit does negotiating gain them?

In that case wipe the regime off the face of the earth

 

[briantrumpet]

Most of NCAP too.

 

[briantrumpet]

Was this the night Trump became 'presidential'?

 

[Milzy]

Really hope the people of US come their senses and vote a more viable president next time.

Fozzie Bear will do.

Voting is an illusion of choice. Trump was an installed puppet.

 

[BoldonLad]

Why doesn’t he get his Board of Peace to sort out the shipping lanes. After all they were keen to get involved.

He has renamed it "Bored of Peace" 😊

 

[BoldonLad]

Sounds like Starmer will be primarily talking to European leaders about coordinating actions to do what they can to get the Straits moving again, but without doing anything that could be construed as entering Trump's war as an aggressor.

"There have been discussions going on in relation to a viable plan. We want to make sure that that involves as many partners as possible. That’s been our stated objective here, particularly talking to European partners, inevitably talking to Gulf Partners and to the US, because we need a credible, viable plan if we can. But he said this was “not easy”. It is difficult. Of course it’s difficult. There’s no hiding that. But that’s what we’re working on in terms of a viable plan."

Put that alongside the comments from Pat McFadden this morning, and it does look like they know who they are dealing with.

"That’s the president right there. The quote that you’ve just given has summed him up. It’s a very transactional presidency and our job is to navigate this, to always remember that the friendship between the United States and the United Kingdom runs very deep. It’s a good relationship. It’s enduring and I think it will outlast all the personalities involved."

What incentive do the Iranians have to "open" the Straits of Hormuz?, at present, they have control, it IS open, to those vessels THEY choose, so, it's status is not detrimental to Iran, what is UK, France, etc etc going to offer them in return for extending the range of vessels permitted to transit, particularly since the vessels are unlikely to be owned of flagged by "western" Countries.

IMHO, Trump and Israel have produced a situation where the ONLY way forward is to destroy the existing regime in Iran, and, ensure a "western friendly" replacement, and, ensure no lingering Terrorists/freedom fighters. An impossible task, even for Donald.

 

[classic33]

Can you say what the future holds for me? I'll pay you 20 quid.

The left hand in the picture
Has no visible life line and an inverted Mars line are troubling signs.
The "person has not been allowed to truly express themselves in their life. The dual head lines is an indication of dual mentality. Which might be an indication that the person has a desire to rule or enforce their mentality on others. Seeking greater riches or power, not always by honest means.
They are not the caring sort, seeking personal gain over all else. Whilst they believe that it's their fate, destiny dictating what they do.

The right hand in the picture
They will have embarked on a journey(Not always a physical one.), which may well end in death on water. There will certainly danger from the water. Their destiny follows a well trod path. Either decided by them or for them, they seek no change to what they feel is right. Something others may have to make up for. They are lacking any genuine emotional warmth towards others, despite their words. Be careful round this person, as the danger that they may bring may not only be on themselves.
They seek material comforts, not emotional.

 

[Pblakeney]

He has renamed it "Bored of Peace" 😊

I do believe that point was made within 24 hours of the initial presentation.
Still, it bears repeating. 😉

 

[Pinno718]

Obama's plan is now dead, because the US can't be trusted. At least for the next 2 1/2 years.

In the next few weeks I think the US will reverse out of this and the rest of the region will be left try to broker some sort of deescalation. Israel don't seem to be interested in Iran as such, beyond short term weakening and will continue to attack Lebanon. Hard to tell if there was ever a genuine belief in Israel that the Iranian regime would fall. I doubt it.

One commentator said that the last thing Netanyahu actually wants is an aggregable govt. in Iran.