Donald I, emperor of the world.

[Psamathe]

There is absolutely no way Trump could walk 50 miles.

He could walk 150% of 50 miles (using Trǔmpomathics).

(I appreciate I'm something or a bore harping on about Trûmp and his failure to understand basic maths and %ages but I can't believe or understand how a (self-)acclaimed businessman can get anywhere without being able to work out basic %ages, beggars belief and either maybe he wasn't the business success he declares or maybe well progressed along age related cognitive decline or probably both?).

 

[First Aspect]

I was going to say that if he can walk 5 miles playing golf, there's zero difference.

 

[icowden]

(I appreciate I'm something or a bore harping on about Trûmp and his failure to understand basic maths and %ages but I can't believe or understand how a (self-)acclaimed businessman can get anywhere without being able to work out basic %ages, beggars belief and either maybe he wasn't the business success he declares or maybe well progressed along age related cognitive decline or probably both?).

If you are very rich, you employ other people to do that stuff.

He got $413 million from his dad. He was very good at setting up sham organisations to dodge taxes. It's estimated that Fred and Mary Trump dodged about $500m in taxes.

Trump's next wheeze was just to make up his net worth and overvalue assets to get loans and secure deals. The only real money he ever made was through the Apprentice. Everything else has been dodgy. His current wealth is the result of insider trading and from "donations" for favours or because he knows where bodies are buried. He was happy to be used by people as long as they stroked his ego and gave him money. An easy way for people to legitimise their own dodgy dealings.

 

[BoldonLad]

The key here is that because the markets are so high staying in will reap little gains whereas staying in too long can mean huge losses.
Everything depends on when you ultimately sell. Stay in for years and it’s just a temporary dip.
Unless you sell now and reinvest in something that’s going to rise. Hard to tell what that would be as both oil and gold are high.

Like I said, it is knowing WHEN is the trick. Index trackers often out perform “experts” over time.

 

[All uphill]

Like I said, it is knowing WHEN is the trick. Index trackers often out perform “experts” over time.

True.

I'm comfortable to wait a year or more and buy back in during a crash or adjustment. "When there is blood on the streets"

 

[Pblakeney]

Like I said, it is knowing WHEN is the trick. Index trackers often out perform “experts” over time.

The "trick" is to understand that there is no "trick". Selling the day before a crash is pure luck or insider trading.
The real "trick" is to be fluid enough to buy in when "there is blood on the streets". That is a slow moving target.

 

[All uphill]

The "trick" is to understand that there is no "trick". Selling the day before a crash is pure luck or insider trading.
The real "trick" is to be fluid enough to buy in when "there is blood on the streets". That is a slow moving target.

It takes a contrarian nature to buy when all the pundits are wailing and moaning.

Luckily for me, that's exactly the way I'm made.

 

[Psamathe]

True.

I'm comfortable to wait a year or more and buy back in during a crash or adjustment. "When there is blood on the streets"

Whilst I'm no pundit, I wonder if in part it depends on how much control you have over where your money is invested "in the markets".

eg I have some investments and earlier this year I decided to check how much (if any) was invested in AI companies as I felt that whilst they were probably not going to crash they were not going to make returns anywhere near the levels of investment and that many investors were not understanding what they were and more pouring in money for "Fear Of Missing Out".. Fund managers response ran to over a page of A4 but bottom line was that a year ago they'd decided that the US stocks were "unreliable" and had been slowly pulling out and were to only 8% in broad "US tech stocks" ie AI and more traditional technology (so I didn't bother to adjust my own investment funds).

 

[BoldonLad]

True.

I'm comfortable to wait a year or more and buy back in during a crash or adjustment. "When there is blood on the streets"

Yes, my gamble (or, reasoned assessment) is similar 😂

 

[UglyWithaSidePart]

The problem with attempting to time the market is knowing when to jump back in, what almost always happens unless by pure luck, is that the moment to jump back in is missed and you end up either in the same position when you jumped out, or worse.
It's why investment advisors never recommend it. Even pension fund managers don't do it, instead they ensure the fund is spread across multiple markets.
For anyone reading this, don't take advice from a forum of cyclists. Speak to your FA.
Even during WW2, the stock market stabilised to pre-war values within 2 years.

 

[UglyWithaSidePart]

Whilst I'm no pundit, I wonder if in part it depends on how much control you have over where your money is invested "in the markets".

eg I have some investments and earlier this year I decided to check how much (if any) was invested in AI companies as I felt that whilst they were probably not going to crash they were not going to make returns anywhere near the levels of investment and that many investors were not understanding what they were and more pouring in money for "Fear Of Missing Out".. Fund managers response ran to over a page of A4 but bottom line was that a year ago they'd decided that the US stocks were "unreliable" and had been slowly pulling out and were to only 8% in broad "US tech stocks" ie AI and more traditional technology (so I didn't bother to adjust my own investment funds).

This is exactly right. The fund managers are incentivised to be prudent.
Most platforms don't offer the speed to execute a decision by a punter anyway, if one was to decide to switch investments from fossil to renewables (for instance), it could take days or even weeks with some providers. By which time everything has changed.

Unless you're day trading, in which case you're basically operating a betting account.
All my comments are mainly about investment platforms such as pensions.

 

[All uphill]

The problem with attempting to time the market is knowing when to jump back in, what almost always happens unless by pure luck, is that the moment to jump back in is missed and you end up either in the same position when you jumped out, or worse.
It's why investment advisors never recommend it. Even pension fund managers don't do it, instead they ensure the fund is spread across multiple markets.
For anyone reading this, don't take advice from a forum of cyclists. Speak to your FA.
Even during WW2, the stock market stabilised to pre-war values within 2 years.

I'm certainly not suggesting anyone does what I have done.

 

[TailWindHome]

Is this good?

 

[UglyWithaSidePart]

I'm certainly not suggesting anyone does what I have done.

Oh yeah, I know! Sorry if it came across otherwise. It's a big step.
I did it during the pandemic, I was not far off retirement and it was March 2020 when the world looked like it was about to change forever. I thought 'fark it' and switched all the investments inside my pension to blackrock money (effectively cash). So no growth expected apart from the odd few pennies here or there but also no shrinkage!

A few months later I switched it all back, all in all I came out just slightly above evens, but if I'd left it a month more I would have missed out on the big gains. It was luck rather than judgement. A terrifying time in all honesty.

 

[Dorset Boy]

Fidelity have over the years put out some excellent research about missing the best days on the market.
Assuming you have a long term (ie 7+ year) time horizon, time in the market always outweighs trying to time the market.