Donald I, emperor of the world.

[Psamathe]

Plus more tariffs in the EU (this, after doing a deal ) on pharmaceutical products.

EU/von der Leyen brought this on themselves just like Carney did for Canada. Did she call him "Daddy"? (no). Did she follow him around picking up anuything he might drop? (no) Did she get his permission before a member state declared they will recognise Palestine? (no) Basically did she demean herself, her country and her region to the honour of Trump. Just like Carney didn't and got massive tariffs so she chose not to and same happened.

Whereas seems UK will demean itself, be totally subservient, ask permission to do anything and they rejoice and praise Trump when we get unjustified, un-reciprocal tariffs.

Ian

 

[Pinno718]

Well the investment markets seem to hear what Trump says, then ignore it for the most part, or make their decisions on a watered down version of his threats.
but for actual businesses, surely you look at alternative markets and just move away from dealing with the US.

Sure, my point wasn't about us per say as we have that choice.

A MAGA bloke who ships parts for agricultural machinery he makes in the US posted a number of videos. It started with 'these tariffs make no odds to me but is great for America' and then over time his opinion shifted. He posted a video with 3 screens in front of him tracking prices of the parts and the effective increase in cost of the agricultural machinery (as well as other materials). The thing is, the rise in prices were not fixed - it was constantly going upwards if not on a day to day basis, a week by week basis where he was forecasting final product costs sometimes in excess of 30%. [Moaning about tariffs all the time]. For agricultural machinery that ranged from $8k to $950k (combine harvesters), the price hike is astronomical and his sales have been hit so hard, he is wondering whether his business will survive.

They go along with the rhetoric until reality hits them, they are that stupid.

 

[Pinno718]

EU/von der Leyen brought this on themselves just like Carney did for Canada. Did she call him "Daddy"? (no). Did she follow him around picking up anuything he might drop? (no) Did she get his permission before a member state declared they will recognise Palestine? (no) Basically did she demean herself, her country and her region to the honour of Trump. Just like Carney didn't and got massive tariffs so she chose not to and same happened.

Whereas seems UK will demean itself, be totally subservient, ask permission to do anything and they rejoice and praise Trump when we get unjustified, un-reciprocal tariffs.

Ian

Beg - because we left the EU and our economy has been hit hard but no one wants to talk about it for some inexplicable reason other than 'it was a stupid decision and I was stupid to support it'. But that's a level of introspection the leavers haven't got the humility to admit. Stupid b*stards.
If we were in the EU right now, we could mitigate tariff increases much easier. We would also strengthen the trading bloc that is the EU*.
We would probably have more power over curbing immigration (oh, the irony).

I digress.

* I know that is hindsight but you never know what's around the corner and it's better to hedge one's bets.

 

[First Aspect]

Trump threatening a 39% tariff on Switzerland !?
Plus more tariffs in the EU (this, after doing a deal ) on pharmaceutical products.

How does any business operate on fluctuating grounds?

Shares in Hershey's will sky rocket.

 

[Beebo]

All the tariffs will mean the vaccines that won't be manufactured will be not made in the US.

I heard a rumour that drug companies and funding bodies like the Welcome Trust are global. The research will go elsewhere.

I suspect it’s quite good news for the UK.
Being one of the best medical research centres.
One of the Covid vaccines was invented here.

 

[briantrumpet]

Shares in Hershey's will sky rocket.

TBH, a country that actually likes Hershey's chocolate shouldn't be trusted with democracy or nuclear weapons.

 

[Psamathe]

All the tariffs will mean the vaccines that won't be manufactured will be not made in the US.

I heard a rumour that drug companies and funding bodies like the Welcome Trust are global. The research will go elsewhere.

I suspect it’s quite good news for the UK.
Being one of the best medical research centres.
One of the Covid vaccines was invented here.

Maybe broader? Combined with the current Trump/US Gov attacks on science and withdrawing research funding, trying to control and restrict Universities, just further driving scientists overseas where the freedoms and opportunities (both academic and commercial) are.

Ian

 

[briantrumpet]

Maybe broader? Combined with the current Trump/US Gov attacks on science and withdrawing research funding, trying to control and restrict Universities, just further driving scientists overseas where the freedoms and opportunities (both academic and commercial) are.

Ian

My guess is that a lot of scientists and academia will be waiting and hoping that Trumpism doesn't stick and that the US can find a way back to sanity. But if it does stick, by fair means or (more likely) foul, the current trickle will turn into a flood.

 

[First Aspect]

It is certainly a source of funding that can't be replaced, but I do think a US brain drain is somewhat likely in post-science America.

This will have lasting impact on them economically. As I hinted above, multinationals will do R&D where the research is happening, because a lot of it starts in and around universities before getting snapped up by said multinationals. If the expertise to develop something is in a certain place, so too will be the expertise to scale it up and ultimately manufacture it. The anti truth brigade are effectively ensuring that industry will be somewhere else.

 

[Psamathe]

My guess is that a lot of scientists and academia will be waiting and hoping that Trumpism doesn't stick and that the US can find a way back to sanity. But if it does stick, buy fair means or (more likely) foul, the current trickle will turn into a flood.

I don't know (as in really don't know). I'd expect some to be very ready to move immediately, those losing funding now as 3+ years is a long time without a job and/or working outside your field. Maybe those just qualifying and looking to move into post-doctoral as opportunities in US just are not there (neither with institutions nor commercial) but then they might also find it harder to move as they have no track record.

Commercial companies losing contracts (eg today's cuts for mRNA vaccines) won't stop the research, just it will move overseas and once moved change of direction from next regime won't bring it back quickly as companies will now be vary aware of how quickly Gov. policy can change mid-contract.

So I guess it not only encourages scientist to leave driving research overseas but also causes loss of confidence in US are a place to undertake such work - and return of sanity to Government in a few years won't quickly reverse that.

But above is just personal opinion claiming no expertise.

Ian

 

[First Aspect]

I don't know (as in really don't know). I'd expect some to be very ready to move immediately, those losing funding now as 3+ years is a long time without a job and/or working outside your field. Maybe those just qualifying and looking to move into post-doctoral as opportunities in US just are not there (neither with institutions nor commercial) but then they might also find it harder to move as they have no track record.

Commercial companies losing contracts (eg today's cuts for mRNA vaccines) won't stop the research, just it will move overseas and once moved change of direction from next regime won't bring it back quickly as companies will now be vary aware of how quickly Gov. policy can change mid-contract.

So I guess it not only encourages scientist to leave driving research overseas but also causes loss of confidence in US are a place to undertake such work - and return of sanity to Government in a few years won't quickly reverse that.

But above is just personal opinion claiming no expertise.

Ian

Yep, whole research groups will move if the funding is pulled. These people aren't going to just switch to bible studies or some such, after dedicating decades to something.

And since mRNA vaccines do work and are flexible and quick to make, and moreover can be patented, that work will go on - albeit disrupted - and be funded by nations, drug companies and charities.

What won't happen necessarily is those research groups going home again if sanity breaks out in a few years, because it is a competitive market for top academics.

 

[briantrumpet]

I don't know (as in really don't know). I'd expect some to be very ready to move immediately, those losing funding now as 3+ years is a long time without a job and/or working outside your field. Maybe those just qualifying and looking to move into post-doctoral as opportunities in US just are not there (neither with institutions nor commercial) but then they might also find it harder to move as they have no track record.

Commercial companies losing contracts (eg today's cuts for mRNA vaccines) won't stop the research, just it will move overseas and once moved change of direction from next regime won't bring it back quickly as companies will now be vary aware of how quickly Gov. policy can change mid-contract.

So I guess it not only encourages scientist to leave driving research overseas but also causes loss of confidence in US are a place to undertake such work - and return of sanity to Government in a few years won't quickly reverse that.

But above is just personal opinion claiming no expertise.

Ian

I think everything about what's going to happen to the US is guesswork now, though I suppose 1930s Germany is probably the nearest analogy, though I'm not sure if the anti-science movement was so pronounced... not least as they appreciated rocket science, though maybe the 'science' of eugenics wasn't a great selling point for the prospectus.

 

[briantrumpet]

Sorry, too many 'thoughs'. Perhaps I should have got AI to proofread it. Though I'm not so sure...

 

[C R]

I think everything about what's going to happen to the US is guesswork now, though I suppose 1930s Germany is probably the nearest analogy, though I'm not sure if the anti-science movement was so pronounced... not least as they appreciated rocket science, though maybe the 'science' of eugenics wasn't a great selling point for the prospectus.

It was much more pronounced and swift in Germany. Look for instance at what happened to the Mathematics department of the University of Göttingen, this Stack Exchange post is a good start.

Engineering was encouraged in so far as it was needed for building up the military, but the ideological push for "German Science" meant that many of the scientists that could bring real new developments, not just improvements on what already existed, were kicked out of their positions, and either left or were interned. Note that a few of them ended up un the Manhattan project. In effect, kicking out physicists that worked on "jewish" quantum mechanics and relativistic physics ensured that Germany didn't have the expertise to develop a nuclear bomb.

The US is not quite there yet, but it is catching up quickly.

Regarding whether the effect is reversible. After the war Germany did recover its scientific lead to some extent, but German society as a whole never espoused the kind of anti intellectual attitudes that seem so prevalent in the US. Who knows if a return to sanity in the US government will be enough to reverse the outflow that is starting.

 

[All uphill]

It was much more pronounced and swift in Germany. Look for instance at what happened to the Mathematics department of the University of Göttingen, this Stack Exchange post is a good start.

Engineering was encouraged in so far as it was needed for building up the military, but the ideological push for "German Science" meant that many of the scientists that could bring real new developments, not just improvements on what already existed, were kicked out of their positions, and either left or were interned. Note that a few of them ended up un the Manhattan project. In effect, kicking out physicists that worked on "jewish" quantum mechanics and relativistic physics ensured that Germany didn't have the expertise to develop a nuclear bomb.

The US is not quite there yet, but it is catching up quickly.

Regarding whether the effect is reversible. After the war Germany did recover its scientific lead to some extent, but German society as a whole never espoused the kind of anti intellectual attitudes that seem so prevalent in the US. Who knows if a return to sanity in the US government will be enough to reverse the outflow that is starting.

I struggle to see how a return to sanity could happen in the USA.

It seems to me that conspiracy theories act like a drug, and will continue to prosper in a culture so deeply rooted in the beliefs of the individual rather than the findings of science.