Well, a) I am not saying that Trump might not add another layer of bureaucracy but until it actually happens, I won't enter into whatiffery and b) traditionally, voter turnout is about 52% of those eligible.
What we have seen (of 26 state elections IIRC, only 2 stayed Red) is people turning out to vote in much higher numbers for what is usually very low turnout in 'local' elections. I think this is telling. This administration is so despised that it is mobilising people who don't normally vote.
My feelings are that the hardcore anti-woke MAGA base will make up less than 30% of the electorate. They have always been there, just in a different guise normally involving white pillow slips with holes cut out of them.
What I find slightly disparaging, is the lack of an emerging Democratic contender, a lack of change in the Democratic party. On that note, one commentator said that a candidate could ride on transparency of Epstein files almost entirely with the poor state of the economy being a given.