AndyRM
Elder Goth
Not particularly relevant, but that instantly made me think of this...
View: https://youtu.be/9g0z4DVYeak?is=LEREdGybEIqazCW1
EU & Brexit Bunker
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Not particularly relevant, but that instantly made me think of this...
View: https://youtu.be/9g0z4DVYeak?is=LEREdGybEIqazCW1
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briantrumpet
Timewaster
A very interesting report from the Polish perspective. Ironically, they see a Brexit benefit in the strengthening of ties between Poland and the UK post Brexit, but they also recognise how it has diminished the UK, and that it serves as a warning that as Poland becomes a net contributor to the EU as it becomes more prosperous, not to let short-term electoral considerations undermine all the more important benefits of EU membership.
https://sobieski.org.pl/wp-content/...-social-assessement-of-the-United-Kingdom.pdf
It's long, but you can skip to the conclusions, which include stuff like this:
https://sobieski.org.pl/wp-content/...-social-assessement-of-the-United-Kingdom.pdf
It's long, but you can skip to the conclusions, which include stuff like this:
secretsqirrel
spiteful class warrior
Pblakeney
Shaman
We’ve become a case study
A sovereign case study don’t you mind.
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briantrumpet
Timewaster
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briantrumpet
Timewaster
Haha, this is quite funny...
Tony Yates
June 24, 2026
My Brexit story... anecdote from the campaign which summed up why the economics Remain case was so difficult to communicate and the tactics faced. Was invited onto daytime Andrew Neil program to make the case. Watched an introductory piece not shown to me beforehand in the wings of the studio that said 'economists always get everything wrong, so why should we believe you?' immediately put to me as I sat down and joined him. It was a classic trope and I should have been better prepared for it.
In technical terms [digression illustrating maybe I haven't learned from the experience].. it boils down to the difference between unconditional and conditional forecasting. We are much better at the latter than the former. What will growth be over the next 20 years is much harder to answer than 'by how much will growth differ if we leave rather than Remain?'. [Former is what we call unconditional, latter conditional, ie it's a what if forecast, or a comparison of two what ifs in this case]. It was a tactic I'd met from Liam Halligan, then a prominent Brexit supporting economist. He's so bad I'm not actually sure whether he knew better and was being devious, or genuinely did not understand himself.
It's quite easy to address in economics or statistics literate discussions. Although you'd hardly expect the issue to arise in the first place. Much harder with a lay audience. Seem to remember it was @chrisgiles.ft.com who came up with a nice analogy to communicate the difference. Imagine trying to forecast someone's weight in x years time. Hard to do as you have no idea how their behaviour or health will evolve. Much easier to forecast by how much their weight will fall if they were to give up pizza, other things equal.
As the surprise / not a surprise question was put to me, Chris' example came to mind. However, looking at Andrew Neil, I was unsettled. If I can say this in as non-fattist a way as possible, he was visibly very fat. And the give up pizza example suddenly seemed pointed and personal. Somehow in the pressure to come up with something quickly, all I could come up with was substituting pizza for croissant.
And the effort of doing that made the example sound ridiculous in my head. Neil and the others in the studio looked blankly back at me, understanding nothing. I thought I'd still made a reasonable attempt, however off balance. My Dad later found people enjoying it on Twitter as was. 'Look at this idiot getting roasted by Neil. For no apparent reason he starts talking about croissant!'
Tony Yates
June 24, 2026
My Brexit story... anecdote from the campaign which summed up why the economics Remain case was so difficult to communicate and the tactics faced. Was invited onto daytime Andrew Neil program to make the case. Watched an introductory piece not shown to me beforehand in the wings of the studio that said 'economists always get everything wrong, so why should we believe you?' immediately put to me as I sat down and joined him. It was a classic trope and I should have been better prepared for it.
In technical terms [digression illustrating maybe I haven't learned from the experience].. it boils down to the difference between unconditional and conditional forecasting. We are much better at the latter than the former. What will growth be over the next 20 years is much harder to answer than 'by how much will growth differ if we leave rather than Remain?'. [Former is what we call unconditional, latter conditional, ie it's a what if forecast, or a comparison of two what ifs in this case]. It was a tactic I'd met from Liam Halligan, then a prominent Brexit supporting economist. He's so bad I'm not actually sure whether he knew better and was being devious, or genuinely did not understand himself.
It's quite easy to address in economics or statistics literate discussions. Although you'd hardly expect the issue to arise in the first place. Much harder with a lay audience. Seem to remember it was @chrisgiles.ft.com who came up with a nice analogy to communicate the difference. Imagine trying to forecast someone's weight in x years time. Hard to do as you have no idea how their behaviour or health will evolve. Much easier to forecast by how much their weight will fall if they were to give up pizza, other things equal.
As the surprise / not a surprise question was put to me, Chris' example came to mind. However, looking at Andrew Neil, I was unsettled. If I can say this in as non-fattist a way as possible, he was visibly very fat. And the give up pizza example suddenly seemed pointed and personal. Somehow in the pressure to come up with something quickly, all I could come up with was substituting pizza for croissant.
And the effort of doing that made the example sound ridiculous in my head. Neil and the others in the studio looked blankly back at me, understanding nothing. I thought I'd still made a reasonable attempt, however off balance. My Dad later found people enjoying it on Twitter as was. 'Look at this idiot getting roasted by Neil. For no apparent reason he starts talking about croissant!'
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briantrumpet
Timewaster
This has very much the vibe of a "Most climate scientists think that global warming is real, but four scientists we've spoken to think it is a distant concept" headline. It's hard to work out why the BBC would be publishing a piece like this... I suspect that there are a lot of things that young people think are 'distant concepts', but they don't get headlines like this.
AuroraSaab
Pharaoh
I can understand it. Those young people were 9 and 10 when we left the EU. They haven't really known anything different than not being in the EU; they have nothing to compare it to and less of a sense of loss of benefit than some older people. If the BBC asked people who were 25 when we left it might be a different story.
If we were to have another vote the Rejoin side would have to convince these young people of the benefits because there's nothing to scare them with. It's no good pretending it's Bullseye and saying 'Here's what you could have won...' because it's difficult to imagine how life would be better/different being in the EU when you aren't.
I agree with them that most people don't talk about being in the EU or rejoining, offline anyway. I don't see why the BBC shouldn't publish a piece that gives different opinions.
If we were to have another vote the Rejoin side would have to convince these young people of the benefits because there's nothing to scare them with. It's no good pretending it's Bullseye and saying 'Here's what you could have won...' because it's difficult to imagine how life would be better/different being in the EU when you aren't.
I agree with them that most people don't talk about being in the EU or rejoining, offline anyway. I don't see why the BBC shouldn't publish a piece that gives different opinions.
Rusty Nails
Country Member
They would have been about 7 or 8 years old at the time of the referendum so all the debate passed them by, unless they were very strange kids. I suspect that they will remain uninterested until it becomes a possibility...which it will not in the near future.
At the moment it is all little political skirmishes, testing the possibilities of closer cooperation, and I cannot see anyone in Labour pushing for another referendum...the debate around which will be even more bitter than the last one.
At the moment it is all little political skirmishes, testing the possibilities of closer cooperation, and I cannot see anyone in Labour pushing for another referendum...the debate around which will be even more bitter than the last one.
bobzmyunkle
Veteran
Sounds to me like they're kids with relatively good jobs and little interest/experience of the wider world. BBC vox pop garbage.
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briantrumpet
Timewaster
Just to update my thoughts re Starmer and the EU: well before Labour were elected, my feeling was that Starmer was going to move back towards the EU with lots of little 'technical improvements', which would feed through into improved trading and general relations with the EU, which would bring an eventual return to the EU via a "We might has well formalise it" renegotiation.
Instead of which Starmer's stuck to his idiotic red lines despite changing politics and despite the evidence of how much EU trade has been lost with no meaningful gain elsewhere. And any minuscule improvements have been reluctant and half-baked (e.g. Erasmus, phytosanitary alignment), and we're no further along the process, despite the public becoming more enthusiastic.
tl;dr - Starmer was as much a disappointment on the EU as he was with pretty much everything else. His only real achievement was to get the Tories out.
Instead of which Starmer's stuck to his idiotic red lines despite changing politics and despite the evidence of how much EU trade has been lost with no meaningful gain elsewhere. And any minuscule improvements have been reluctant and half-baked (e.g. Erasmus, phytosanitary alignment), and we're no further along the process, despite the public becoming more enthusiastic.
tl;dr - Starmer was as much a disappointment on the EU as he was with pretty much everything else. His only real achievement was to get the Tories out.
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Rusty Nails
Country Member
Which was a big achievement.
Reversing Brexit will be much harder...and take a lot longer.
bobzmyunkle
Veteran
Didn't the Tories get themselves out to a large extent. Ok it might not have happened with Corbyn, so give Starmer some credit.
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briantrumpet
Timewaster
Yeah, 'Not Being Corbyn' was his 'skill'. It's a pity that McSweeney took the landslide as an indication of his brilliance rather than everyone just wanting to get the Tories out.
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