Gulf War No.37: Iranistan

[Beebo]

Interesting BBC More of Less (as a podcast) looking into whether US/Middle East/Israel have enough interceptors compared to Iran's stocks of missiles. Interesting that normally two interceptors fired for each incoming missile. A lot of estimates so my take nothing conclusive.

But what I found interesting is Iran's drones which are apparently very easy to assemble to the point where they can be build in small garage. Which means production can be maintained however much US/Israel bombs factories (they won't even be able to know the vast number of small garages Iran might distribute production across.

Iran also has 930 miles of coastline along the Strait. So it’s impossible to fully defend.
Dropping a few bunker buster bombs isn’t going to work.

 

[CXRAndy]

Iran also has 930 miles of coastline along the Strait. So it’s impossible to fully defend.
Dropping a few bunker buster bombs isn’t going to work.

They also have 90% of their oil exports going through a small island.
Leverage

 

[Beebo]

They also have 90% of their oil exports going through a small island.
Leverage

View attachment 14042

Let’s start negotiating then.
Bombing isn’t leverage.

 

[Pblakeney]

In a time of restricted oils & gas supply the solution is to bomb oil & gas infrastructure.
Genius level.

 

[Psamathe]

I've also read it suggested that Iran are using up their older ordinance first and saving the better stuff until it has a higher chance of reaching its target.

My impression (and I claim no expertise) is that for many years Israel has started attacking neighbours going all-out as quickly as possible trying in a race against public world opinion building until they are forced to stop. Even with Trümp I suspect they are aware that other pressures (oil price, internal US public opinion, etc.) will mean Trūmp will stop before Netanyahu is finished, hence Israel going all out in a race against Trümp succumbing to such pressure.

But Iran is playing a long game vs Israel playing a short game. And the Iranian regime can take a lot of damage and still survive.

Across "the rest of the world" people might make a moral judgement about Israeli treatment of Palestinians and form a view but when those people are facing higher interest rates, having mortgage offers withdrawn, high inflation, big jumps in energy costs all from what most are describing as an illegal war of choice by Israel/Trümp, widespread world opinion is likely to harden (a lot).

 

[HMS_Dave]

I dont see any evidence the bombing is working to achieve the objectives we were told were the goals at the beginning. The regime still functions despite many big name eliminations , which is proof the bombing is not working and not a measure of success as missiles from Iran are still hitting targetted infrastructure, bases and government buildings in the region as they still have a functioning command structure, which is having a major impact on global supplies and markets. Nobody seems to have any real credible intelligence on Iran's current Uranium enrichment situation either. Last year, it was "destroyed" but now we hear they cannot be allowed to have nukes... Just a lot of bluster, not a lot of actual facts... The next logical escalation would be boots on the ground, which would be a disaster in the making. 24 hours after the US left Afghanistan after 20 years, the Taliban were back in control being armed with little more than Soviet ww2 era weapons and a mountain range hideout.... 20 years of death for nothing. Civilians once again getting the brunt end of it.

 

[CXRAndy]

Let’s start negotiating then.
Bombing isn’t leverage.

Trump has. He didn't wipe ut out, last week.

Told Islamic regime stop attacking oil tankers or else.

Its upto them now

 

[First Aspect]

Trump has. He didn't wipe ut out, last week.

Told Islamic regime stop attacking oil tankers or else.

Its upto them now

What's he going to do though? Huff and puff?

 

[HMS_Dave]

The Daily Malaise is a better source of facts than Trump and that is saying summat.

 

[CXRAndy]

What's he going to do though? Huff and puff?

I expect if the islamic regime attack shipping he will either capture or destroy their fuel terminal. Currently the US are taking out missile silos deep under ground with their bunker buster ordinance around the Hormuz straits

 

[CXRAndy]

I read this earlier from another post. The Iranians are attacking the Islamic guard checkpoints.

Reports Islamic guard are abandoning posts, changing into civilian clothing


View: https://x.com/i/status/2034321895017906683

 

[HMS_Dave]

How successful in reality has people rising up against brutal dictators been? It doesnt appear to have great success even when an international coalition puts boots on the ground. It took over 20 years to get rid of Saddam Hussein and his regime and 2 invasions.

 

[CXRAndy]

A quick search reveals multiple changes of leaders by uprising

Two come to mind, Romania and Serbia

 

[Blazing Saddles]

What's he going to do though? Huff and puff?

You mean he’s going to carry on as usual?
That’s bound to work.
I mean his huffing and puffing did wonders for getting Europe behind him.

 

[HMS_Dave]

A quick search reveals multiple changes of leaders by uprising

Two come to mind, Romania and Serbia

So at best 50/50. American lead seem to have a worse conversion rate.