Makerfield by election

[Beebo]

Place holder for all your By Election comments.
The polls are open.
By 10pm tonight the UK political scene could be very different.

 

[midlandsgrimpeur]

Polling still has Burnham ahead, but not as wide a margin as a couple of weeks back. The Reform candidate has looked as out of his depth as you might imagine and Restore will likely take a fair few votes away from him too. I would be surprised if Burnham didn't win.

If he does, I am assuming him as Labour leader and therefore PM is kind of a done deal, I guess it is more about when Starmer decides to step down.

 

[Psamathe]

If he does, I am assuming him as Labour leader and therefore PM is kind of a done deal, I guess it is more about when Starmer decides to step down.

I wonder if Streeting might end-up not standing but instead take a (very) senior Cabinet post in a Burnham Government. If that does happen I'd expect him to keep making noises about him standing until a Burnham's levels of support become apparent then at last minute just not stand.and it will be a coronation (which is pretty much as democratic as those who have paid money getting to decide).

 

[briantrumpet]

I wonder if Streeting might end-up not standing but instead take a (very) senior Cabinet post in a Burnham Government. If that does happen I'd expect him to keep making noises about him standing until a Burnham's levels of support become apparent then at last minute just not stand.and it will be a coronation (which is pretty much as democratic as those who have paid money getting to decide).

If that happens, it'll be interesting what Streeting pushes Burnham into promising.

 

[midlandsgrimpeur]

I wonder if Streeting might end-up not standing but instead take a (very) senior Cabinet post in a Burnham Government. If that does happen I'd expect him to keep making noises about him standing until a Burnham's levels of support become apparent then at last minute just not stand.and it will be a coronation (which is pretty much as democratic as those who have paid money getting to decide).

From his rhetoric of late, seems like that is the plan. I think Streeting is quite astute, he perhaps wants to see (assuming Burnham becomes PM) what happens at the next GE and will position himself as the next leader in waiting should a Burnham led govt be defeated in 3 years.

 

[Pross]

I wonder if Streeting might end-up not standing but instead take a (very) senior Cabinet post in a Burnham Government. If that does happen I'd expect him to keep making noises about him standing until a Burnham's levels of support become apparent then at last minute just not stand.and it will be a coronation (which is pretty much as democratic as those who have paid money getting to decide).

I'm pretty sure Streeting mounting a challenge would be entirely to give Burnham the chance (and then get his reward in the Cabinet). The optics wouldn't wouldn't be great for Burnham to get elected and immediately launch a challenge even though everyone knows that's the whole point.

 

[Pross]

Place holder for all your By Election comments.
The polls are open.
By 10pm tonight the UK political scene could be very different.

You realise you now have to list everyone standing for impartiality reasons?

 

[AuroraSaab]

Anybody want to make predictions? I'm going to go for a Burnham win with a majority of 6 to 8k votes. Reform second by some distance maybe. This is on the basis that I don't think people vote the same in council elections as they do in parliamentary ones. They might well show their displeasure by voting Reform (or other odd minority party) in local elections but they don't really want them running the country.

 

[Ian H]

Anybody want to make predictions? I'm going to go for a Burnham win with a majority of 6 to 8k votes. Reform second by some distance maybe. This is on the basis that I don't think people vote the same in council elections as they do in parliamentary ones. They might well show their displeasure by voting Reform (or other odd minority party) in local elections but they don't really want them running the country.

By-elections often produce protest votes.

 

[Beebo]

Burnham won fairly easily in the end.
Now the madness will begin.

 

[Beebo]

Hopefully this is the high water mark for reform. They surely can’t win a FPTP general election.
Tactical voting shows people will vote for anyone but reform. As the cons, libs and greens are no where.

 

[Pross]

Tice’s excuse is that Burnham is an anti-Starmer candidate so he’s basically saying people prefer Labour to Reform, they just dislike Starmer. Oh, and it has always been Labour so he seems to be giving up on trying to win safe seats from others despite that being essential if they want to win a GE.

Tories winning in Aberdeen feels surprising

 

[Dorset Boy]

Hopefully this is the high water mark for reform. They surely can’t win a FPTP general election.
Tactical voting shows people will vote for anyone but reform. As the cons, libs and greens are no where.

Are the Libs, Greens and conservatives nowhere due to tactical voting?

 

[Beebo]

Are the Libs, Greens and conservatives nowhere due to tactical voting?

Apparently those parties won 22% of the vote in 2024, now just 3%.
So it looks tactical.

 

[rakkor]

Apparently those parties won 22% of the vote in 2024, now just 3%.
So it looks tactical.

I'd assume most of the evaporated Tory vote went to Reform and the rest were anyone but Reform votes so tactical on both sides maybe