Old Bexley and Sidcup

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BoldonLad

Old man on a bike. Not a member of a clique.
Location
South Tyneside
I see the Conservatives have held Old Bexley and Sidcup, but, with a massive reduction in their majority. Low turnout, but, even so, it is difficult to see how this can be regarded as an endorsement of the Government. 10% swing to Labour. Perhaps, a Labour Government is on it's way at the next GE? If that happens, we will have to close this little forum down. ;)
 
Byelections with low turnout may not be good predictors for a GE but the numbers look fairly close to recent opinion polls. In a GE that would probably not be enough to give Labour a working majority. Recent byelections, including this one, Amersham and Batley all saw either Labour or Liberals which were previously 'placed' getting tiny votes. That is unlikely to manifest itself at a GE.
 

icowden

Legendary Member
I see the Conservatives have held Old Bexley and Sidcup, but, with a massive reduction in their majority. Low turnout, but, even so, it is difficult to see how this can be regarded as an endorsement of the Government. 10% swing to Labour. Perhaps, a Labour Government is on it's way at the next GE? If that happens, we will have to close this little forum down. ;)

Is it though?

If we look at 2019, Cons got 29,786 vote or 64.5%. Labour got 10,834 or 23.5% of the vote which was 6% less than the previous election. Lib dems took 3,822 with 8.3%.

So to me, it looks like a significant number of Tories voted for the Reform UK party rather than Conservative (presumably Cons not right wing enough for them) , and the lib dem / green voters backed the labour candidate in the hope of a win. In real terms labour have 4% more of the share than they did in 2017 but have reduced from 14,000 votes in 2017 to 6000 votes in 2021. Cons have reduced from 29,000 to 11,000 whilst reform uk took some of the Tories majority.
 

icowden

Legendary Member
I see there are at least 151 idiots in Bexley - the people who voted for the Rejoin EU candidate.

And that's why we need proportional representation. Just because you disagree with a party it doesn't invalidate the votes of those who supported it's policies.

Personally I see a great many more idiots who voted for Reform UK. So much more lunacy amongst the right wing than the left, wouldn't you say?
 
D

Deleted member 49

Guest
Considering the performance of the Tories is this really some sort of victory by Labour? Do by elections really mean anything.Or is it a low turnout because its a relatively safe seat.
 

IanSmithCSE

New Member
Good morning,

I am a life long Conservative voter, excepting the last GE when I voted Labour on the grounds that Jeremy Corbyn with a House Of Commons hostile to him would be less dangerous than Boris with a House that backed him.

Come the next GE I would vote Labour again if it was BJ vs. KS.

Keir Starmer is in my view a terrible opposition leader because he is doing the job as Counsel For The ..... in other words it doesn't matter what the Tories do he will try to discredit it and suggest something else. It doesn't matter what that something else is as long as he does his duty as a barrister and gets the best "outcome for his client", in this case the Labour party.

He hasn't yet caught on to the fact that the electorate don't like that approach.

I've never liked BJ because I see him as someone who makes decisions without understanding the problem and then moves on. I would expect KS to be the opposite and by the time of the next GE the consequences of the COVID actions and BrExit with be clear, I personally expect these to be quite bad as all the little things add up.

As a P.M., hopefully he would have to develop policies and this would focus his mind on what should be done, why and how, if he can swap his mindset he could easily be one of the best P.Ms. for a long time.

In my view even now many on both the State payroll and larger private companies's one haven't come to terms with just how expensive Lock Down was and how little tax is going to paid over the next few years.

If you go with the idea that the Conservative voters tend to be older, these voters will probably know more people who have lost their businesses or are about to because of debts incurred during COVID lock downs and those on the State payroll who are being made redundant.

Bye

Ian
 
D

Deleted member 28

Guest
I hope Labour do get in because if things are so bad at the moment, but I think they're OK, things can only improve.

Win, win.
 

PaulB

Active Member
And that's why we need proportional representation. Just because you disagree with a party it doesn't invalidate the votes of those who supported it's policies.

Personally I see a great many more idiots who voted for Reform UK. So much more lunacy amongst the right wing than the left, wouldn't you say?
The problem with PR is the BNP would have had seats in Parliament in two of the most recent four elections!
 
Representation of minority parties is a direct result of PR. It happens in other countries and their political systems manage the consequences.

In the UK I don't think BNP members, or equivalent extremists from the left would have much influence. If however there had been ten UKIP members after 2010 or 15 they could have been much more difficult to deal with. More so in what might have been early years of a PR parliament where large numbers carry legacy baggage from FPTP and haven't the nous to form alliances or work across the gangway.
 

winjim

Welcome yourself into the new modern crisis
The problem with PR is the BNP would have had seats in Parliament in two of the most recent four elections!
That might be preferable to the current situation of a traditionally 'centre-right' majority party having moved to a more extreme position on subjects such as immigration and Euroscepticism in an attempt to counter what they perceive as a threat from those parties.

I'd take the presence of one or two overt nationalists over three hundred odd trying to pretend they're not.
 

PaulB

Active Member
I am most definately not a BNP supporter, but, if PR is more “fair” than FPTP, and represents what the majority want, then, isn’t that democracy in action?
Swings and roundabouts. One Green MP gives hope that one day, there may be many more.
 

Pale Rider

Veteran
Proportional representation is for losers - as shown on this thread.

Or rather, it's only ever supporters of losing parties who call for it.

As I've posted before, my preferred result is a Conservative win, but my next preferred result is a decisive win for somebody else.

My least preferred result is a poxy coalition which, in the UK at least, only ever leads to more ruddy elections.

I've never lived in a Tory constituency since I was old enough to vote, although I came (relatively) close last time.

No bleating from me about my vote being wasted.
 
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