Reform, and the death of the Tory Party

[First Aspect]

Curtice has been saying this for about 12 months. Sir John is an oracle.

 

[Psamathe]

Copium, maybe.

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I also wonder if there is a "French election" effect where in France (national elections) 1st round voters "take a punt" and often support more extreme candidates safe in the knowledge their chosen person won't get elected (yet). Then come 2nd round they realise the impact were the more extreme candidate get elected and revert to the more mainstream choice.

Local Councillors are generally seen as having little power and most don't think their bin collections are at risk. So quite a few might see voting Reform for local councils "low risk". But faced with the prospect of their vote making Färage PM some will take a more sane route.

Or maybe I'm just wishful thinking not prepared to accept the prospect of Farāge becoming PM, deluding myself.

 

[briantrumpet]

I also wonder if there is a "French election" effect where in France (national elections) 1st round voters "take a punt" and often support more extreme candidates safe in the knowledge their chosen person won't get elected (yet). Then come 2nd round they realise the impact were the more extreme candidate get elected and revert to the more mainstream choice.

Local Councillors are generally seen as having little power and most don't think their bin collections are at risk. So quite a few might see voting Reform for local councils "low risk". But faced with the prospect of their vote making Färage PM some will take a more sane route.

Or maybe I'm just wishful thinking not prepared to accept the prospect of Farāge becoming PM, deluding myself.

I think that's what Starmer is (possibly foolishly) banking on.

 

[Psamathe]

I think that's what Starmer is (possibly foolishly) banking on.

Lots of commentators talking about the end of our two party system yet I've not heard much about why it's got to the point it has. I suspect a large part because the two parties in the "two party system" have just failed. Poor policies and just chasing polls.

As one (of many) example, I'd have hoped Starmer would have stood-up for asylum seekers, making speaches etc. about their plight, how we can help them without lowering our standards, how they contribute to the economy; smilarly rather than just condemn immigration instead talk about how dependent our NHS has become of people from overseas being prepared to come to the UK and care for us both under the NHS and social care. etc. Instead Starmer has just read the polling and taken the easy unthinking path.

 

[briantrumpet]

Lots of commentators talking about the end of our two party system yet I've not heard much about why it's got to the point it has. I suspect a large part because the two parties in the "two party system" have just failed. Poor policies and just chasing polls.

As one (of many) example, I'd have hoped Starmer would have stood-up for asylum seekers, making speaches etc. about their plight, how we can help them without lowering our standards, how they contribute to the economy; smilarly rather than just condemn immigration instead talk about how dependent our NHS has become of people from overseas being prepared to come to the UK and care for us both under the NHS and social care. etc. Instead Starmer has just read the polling and taken the easy unthinking path.

I think Starmer completely misread the politics because of his faith in McSweeney and Blue Labour, hence losing votes to the Greens. (They had a good window/margin to blame mishandling of the mechanics of immigration on the Tories at the same time promoting the value of immigration to the health/wealth of the nation).

But equally, I think voters are partially to blame for having unreasonable expectations of what national governments can achieve, blaming everything on incompetent dishonest politicians, when they keep on rewarding people who promise unicorns but deliver a pre-loved My Little Pony (slightly soiled). The bigger the lies, the bigger the electoral rewards.

 

[Psamathe]

But equally, I think voters are partially to blame for having unreasonable expectations of what national governments can achieve, blaming everything on incompetent dishonest politicians, when they keep on rewarding people who promise unicorns but deliver a pre-loved My Little Pony (slightly soiled). The bigger the lies, the bigger the electoral rewards.

Given how many people don't have the time to research and examine claims from politicians (busy work, family, etc.) I might turn that back to the politicians for creating those unreasonable expectations.

Get elected on the basis of unreasonable promises and parties get what is now happening. Significant element of bringing it on themselves.

 

[Pross]

Lots of commentators talking about the end of our two party system yet I've not heard much about why it's got to the point it has. I suspect a large part because the two parties in the "two party system" have just failed. Poor policies and just chasing polls.

As one (of many) example, I'd have hoped Starmer would have stood-up for asylum seekers, making speaches etc. about their plight, how we can help them without lowering our standards, how they contribute to the economy; smilarly rather than just condemn immigration instead talk about how dependent our NHS has become of people from overseas being prepared to come to the UK and care for us both under the NHS and social care. etc. Instead Starmer has just read the polling and taken the easy unthinking path.

I think a lot of voters just want to be told what they want to hear. However, when the Tories and Labour do that there is a track record showing they haven’t delivered whereas up until now Reform and the Greens haven’t been tested and the voters are still prepared to believe they’ll get the promised sunlit uplands promised by the new kids. If Reform win the next GE the reality will presumably start to bite and people will realise their promises are equally far fetched. I’d rather they come to that realisation through local elections first though.

 

[TailWindHome]

Reform forecast to win 0 of the 73 constituency seats in Scotland

 

[briantrumpet]

I think a lot of voters just want to be told what they want to hear. However, when the Tories and Labour do that there is a track record showing they haven’t delivered whereas up until now Reform and the Greens haven’t been tested and the voters are still prepared to believe they’ll get the promised sunlit uplands promised by the new kids. If Reform win the next GE the reality will presumably start to bite and people will realise their promises are equally far fetched. I’d rather they come to that realisation through local elections first though.

The trouble is that's already happened with Brexit, but once voters have gone against advice to give a kicking to the 'old order', they seem unwilling to reflect on how their choice has panned out, even when it's hit them personally. (See also Trump voters.)

 

[Psamathe]

The trouble is that's already happened with Brexit, but once voters have gone against advice to give a kicking to the 'old order', they seem unwilling to reflect on how their choice has panned out, even when it's hit them personally. (See also Trump voters.)

Also, as next General election approaches what will the various press outlets have been holdimng ready to publish with max. impact?

Is it just coincidence that Fãrages £5m gift became headline story sortly before the Council elections? or had the gift been discovered some time ago and held back with the intent of maximum impact?

As the saying goes: "Coincidences take a lot of planning"

 

[TailWindHome]

Pick the bones out of that

 

[briantrumpet]

Also, as next General election approaches what will the various press outlets have been holdimng ready to publish with max. impact?

I doubt if they'll do much (if anything). I'd been hoping that the US press would do that with Trump and his many dodgy affairs, and though Farage isn't in the same league, he's got a pretty impressive list of dodgy stuff that's getting longer but seems to get forgotten as we move onto the next unexplained 'personal donation'. Whatever Trump's doing, it seems to work similarly for Farage, albeit in the millions rather than billions.

 

[TailWindHome]

 

[briantrumpet]

Pick the bones out of that

View attachment 14962

I think there are plenty of studies to show that local elections are a very poor indicator for any sort of accurate prediction for the next general election. But it gives pundits plenty of (fairly meaningless) material nonetheless.

 

[Psamathe]

I think there are plenty of studies to show that local elections are a very poor indicator for any sort of accurate prediction for the next general election. But it gives pundits plenty of (fairly meaningless) material nonetheless.

But the switch to Reform run councils could give other parties plenty of stuff to use as in "They did this to your Council/Rates ... would you want this done to the entire country?". ie a track record of local Council disasters.