Reform, and the death of the Tory Party

[Pblakeney]

Who knows?

...and that's the point.
People using dodgy figures to make a flawed point.

 

[Stevo 666]

Isn't that because of late the UK cohort being counted included a high proportion of retired people, whereas the immigrant cohort being counted included mostly young working age eastern Europeans? They'll get old and contribute less eventually too.

There are some sound arguments for immigration, not least that we need people to work in jobs like social care. That requires controlling who comes though as they need certain skills and good English. The idea that every immigrant who arrives here illegally - which is the cohort we are currently discussing - is going to be beneficial to the economy simply isn't true.

I think those are very important points.

 

[BoldonLad]

...and that's the point.
People using dodgy figures to make a flawed point.

Yes, well ONS has been having a few problems recently, who knows what figures are flawed and which aren’t.

 

[First Aspect]

I think those are very important points.

Apart from the things that are wrong. I know it's hard to accept, but working aged people entering the UK are proportionally more economically productive than the *working age* population as a whole. The notion that people are coming here to take our jobs simply isn't true.

 

[BoldonLad]

No. Based on ONS data.

My 9+ million is/was ONS data.

My point is, perhaps, there is more than one solution to the problem. But, first, you have to identify the problem, not the symptom(s).

The “willingness to work” appears to extend beyond the adult world of wage earning. Daughter no2 is a maths teacher in a Socially deprived” area. Her “star pupils” are almost all immigrants. Anecdotal of course, I wonder if there are any ONS stats to support it? I wonder if any open minded person is considering why this may be so?

 

[Bromptonaut]

If I pack my job in before I'm 66 in December I'll count as economically inactive but I might still creep into higher rate tax after I get State Pension.

Obvs no benefits until the pension.

 

[First Aspect]

Indeed. A fair percentage of the 9+ million will have legitimate reasons.
The original premise was about lazy bar stewards on benefits draining the system. It's not 9+ million, how many is it?

I would have thought a reasonable guestimate could be made on the difference in the number since covid. Which I frankly do not think can be explained by either long covid or all of the mental health issues people have since devised as a consequence of it.

My reasoning is that the UK has seen an increase out of line with other comparable economies. The only reasonable explanation lies in our benefit system, or at the very least how our health system interfaces with it. In short, there are a few million people who aren't working because they don't need to or there's no financial incentive to do so.

I feel sure that can be ameliorated without taking a hard right wing Iain Duncan Smith approach.

 

[BoldonLad]

If I pack my job in before I'm 66 in December I'll count as economically inactive but I might still creep into higher rate tax after I get State Pension.

Obvs no benefits until the pension.

I wonder how “typical” that makes you? Do you ride a Clapham Omnibus?

 

[BoldonLad]

I would have thought a reasonable guestimate could be made on the difference in the number since covid. Which I frankly do not think can be explained by either long covid or all of the mental health issues people have since devised as a consequence of it.

My reasoning is that the UK has seen an increase out of line with other comparable economies. The only reasonable explanation lies in our benefit system, or at the very least how our health system interfaces with it. In short, there are a few million people who aren't working because they don't need to or there's no financial incentive to do so.

I feel sure that can be ameliorated without taking a hard right wing Iain Duncan Smith approach.

Quite.

 

[Bromptonaut]

I wonder how “typical” that makes you? Do you ride a Clapham Omnibus?

No but I would if I lived in Clapham!!

 

[Psamathe]

If I pack my job in before I'm 66 in December I'll count as economically inactive but I might still creep into higher rate tax after I get State Pension.

Obvs no benefits until the pension.

It's a very relevant consideration. I gave-up work age 47. Reason: For a long time I'd been working beyond ludicrous hours 7 days a week (every weekend was working from home snatching a few hours sleep every now and again, etc.). I decided that when I get old and reflect on my life all I'd be able to say was "I worked" and that was not enough so my decision was to either cut hours back to something sane or continue for a few years saving like mad and quit "working" early. I chose to continue ludicrous hours, live frugally & save and "retire" early. I did, it worked and I never got any benefit from any Government. And I would have counted as "economically inactive" because I was but I was not a drain on any economy.

 

[First Aspect]

It's a very relevant consideration. I gave-up work age 47. Reason: For a long time I'd been working beyond ludicrous hours 7 days a week (every weekend was working from home snatching a few hours sleep every now and again, etc.). I decided that when I get old and reflect on my life all I'd be able to say was "I worked" and that was not enough so my decision was to either cut hours back to something sane or continue for a few years saving like mad and quit "working" early. I chose to continue ludicrous hours, live frugally & save and "retire" early. I did, it worked and I never got any benefit from any Government. And I would have counted as "economically inactive" because I was but I was not a drain on any economy.

Well that's two people out of the 9 million. I think this counts as data now.

 

[Pblakeney]

Well that's two people out of the 9 million. I think this counts as data now.

Three out of a very small subset.
Doubt it can be extrapolated though. 😉

Edit:- Four, at least. I’m sure Brian retired early too.

 

[BoldonLad]

Well that's two people out of the 9 million. I think this counts as data now.

I did similar, but, not until I was 60. So, that’s 3 out of 9million. 😂

 

[First Aspect]

Three out of a very small subset.
Doubt it can be extrapolated though. 😉

Edit:- Four, at least. I’m sure Brian retired early too.

Semi retired. He still trumpets.

Besides, this is about looking at things that have changed. The retirement age hasn't so to account for your 4 million extra economically inactives you have to suppose that early benefit free retirement has become awfully trendy, so trendy in fact that about 1 in 10 of the working age population are trying it.