Reform, and the death of the Tory Party

[Pinno718]

I don't really understand gambling/bookies but I had the (maybe incorrect) impression that their odds are based on who is placing bets which way. ie to hedge their bets whatever the outcome.

So, if my understanding is correct are they more than a type of poll across those who gamble on such things ... a very specific sector of the population?

Or maybe I don't appreciate how bookies set odds (quite possible).

The more people who bet on Horsey x, the more the odds shorten, which effectively reduces risk. Now, Horsey x might not have a snowflakes chance in hell of coming in but the more people who bet on Horsey x, the greater the risk that snowflake represents.

1 person betting £50 on a 1000-1 chance risks £50k. 100 people betting on a 5 to 1 chance averaging £10 per bet is a liability of 100 x £10 x 5 = £5000. The 5-1 doesn't stay at those odds because the risk is too high so the bookie reduces the odds so that mathematically, the winning bets cannot exceed the total of bets placed on a single event/race or else they cannot run a business.

If you want to know more about spread betting, accumulators, fixed SP's, systems and how the bookies pull people in and how to beat them then let me know
But... I only know about Horse Racing.

 

[Stevo 666]

Sure. Some Reform fanboys don't like the Conservative interlopers and (rightly) point out that some of them were active participants in the cabinet that stuffed hundreds of thousands of illegal migrants into hotels and granted many more the legal right to become citizens. I don't have a dog in the fight so it's up to them to decide what they're going to do about it, I'm merely making the point that there is probably more experience is in the Reform shadow cabinet than there was in Labour's when they won the election.

And if we are talking about business or commercial experience, then Rachel From Accounts is claimed to be the most experienced cabinet member in the Labour party. And we wonder why it's all going so wrong 😄

 

[icowden]

And if we are talking about business or commercial experience, then Rachel From Accounts is claimed to be the most experienced cabinet member in the Labour party. And we wonder why it's all going so wrong 😄

Can you enumerate what's going so wrong? Compare and contrast to the previous two chancellors please.

 

[Stevo 666]

Can you enumerate what's going so wrong? Compare and contrast to the previous two chancellors please.

My comment was aimed at Labour in general. Although not sure why you think the last lot are relevant to the current poor performance of the party in charge?

 

[midlandsgrimpeur]

Reform now has several former Conservative cabinet members. Labour has (I think) only four with previous cabinet experience (Yvette Cooper, John Healey, Douglas Alexander and Ed Milliband) so I think your point is moot. There are many reasons why people might vote Reform but I think probably chief among them is having been lied to and let down by the main parties for the last knows how many years. Is it any wonder that people might seek an alternative?

They do, but the Tory defectors are very recent so they played no part in recent GE and local elections so they cannot be a deciding factor for any Reform voters. Seeking an alternative is a fair point, but as I said, I think at this stage we are beyond an alternative/protest vote. If you are voting Reform at this point there is surely a strong element that you agree with their policies and feel they have the requisite experience and knowledge within the party to deliver. My personal view is that Reform, by and large, does not have anything close to the quality of councillor or politician to deliver on anything they promise. I appreciate though that time will tell.

 

[CXRAndy]

My comment was aimed at Labour in general. Although not sure why you think the last lot are relevant to the current poor performance of the party in charge?

Deflection

 

[Pblakeney]

They do, but the Tory defectors are very recent so they played no part in recent GE and local elections so they cannot be a deciding factor for any Reform voters. Seeking an alternative is a fair point, but as I said, I think at this stage we are beyond an alternative/protest vote. If you are voting Reform at this point there is surely a strong element that you agree with their policies and feel they have the requisite experience and knowledge within the party to deliver. My personal view is that Reform, by and large, does not have anything close to the quality of councillor or politician to deliver on anything they promise. I appreciate though that time will tell.

Placing an alternative/protest vote is all very well and good.
As long as you are happy to face the consequences and responsibilities of the outcome being the opposite of good.

 

[Shortfall]

They do, but the Tory defectors are very recent so they played no part in recent GE and local elections so they cannot be a deciding factor for any Reform voters. Seeking an alternative is a fair point, but as I said, I think at this stage we are beyond an alternative/protest vote. If you are voting Reform at this point there is surely a strong element that you agree with their policies and feel they have the requisite experience and knowledge within the party to deliver. My personal view is that Reform, by and large, does not have anything close to the quality of councillor or politician to deliver on anything they promise. I appreciate though that time will tell.

I think the British public are well past the point where they believe in manifestos and the ability of anyone in the political class to achieve anything useful. So they will turn to Reform on the basis that things have gotten so bad that what have they got to lose? NCAAP isn't a microcosm of the voting public. Remember that.

 

[Shortfall]

Placing an alternative/protest vote is all very well and good.
As long as you are happy to face the consequences and responsibilities of the outcome being the opposite of good.

As many Labour voters are now discovering having been conned into thinking that Starmer was going to lead a business friendly, centrist government.

 

[Pblakeney]

As many Labour voters are now discovering having been conned into thinking that Starmer was going to lead a business friendly, centrist government.

If you think this is bad, you ain't seen nothing yet.

 

[Pinno718]

As many Labour voters are now discovering having been conned into thinking that Starmer was going to lead a business friendly, centrist government.

'conned' ?
What hasn't Starmer done that you think he should have done given the state of the UK post Brexit/post Tory economy?

Just wondering.

 

[secretsqirrel]

Placing an alternative/protest vote is all very well and good.
As long as you are happy to face the consequences and responsibilities of the outcome being the opposite of good.

That’s the problem though, nobody wants to face the truth and admit they were wrong.

 

[briantrumpet]

'conned' ?
What hasn't Starmer done that you think he should have done given the state of the UK post Brexit/post Tory economy?

Just wondering.

The thing I dislike most about the Starmer government is the Reform stuff that Mahmood is doing with apparent relish, and the reluctance to make the case for the positive contribution, economically and otherwise, that immigration makes to the UK.

Apparently, the 'small boats' issue is a hot topic on the doorstep in Gorton and Denton, despite the fact that in practical terms it has virtually zero impact on the constituency.

OTOH, Starmer is making small steps towards the 'small technical improvements' towards easier trade with the EU that I predicted back over on Cake Stop, even if I wish he'd make the case for dropping the stoopid self-imposed red lines that I suspect are a sop to Glasman & McSweeney. Stop the 'Brexit was badly done' line and just admit that Brexit was shit idea even at the time, and even more so in retrospect.

 

[midlandsgrimpeur]

I think the British public are well past the point where they believe in manifestos and the ability of anyone in the political class to achieve anything useful. So they will turn to Reform on the basis that things have gotten so bad that what have they got to lose? NCAAP isn't a microcosm of the voting public. Remember that.

To be fair, as much as I enjoy NCAP and value the contributions on here, I definitely don't live in a leftie liberal bubble as some might believe 😉 I do think that slightly underestimates why people are voting Reform, I don't think it is merely a vote against the main parties or as you say people feel they have "nothing to lose". Reform are very clear on what they stand for; stringent migration rules/deportation of illegal migrants, rowing back net zero, tougher policing/lawmaking, bringing back British manufacturing, "sovereignty" in lawmaking, supporting rural economies. Let's be frank, it is a clear appeal to a bygone era of the UK in many respects, things like British manufacturing are never coming back, but it appeals to some people (and is working clearly). I have had conversations with a fair few people that have or are thinking about voting Reform, it rarely stems from a rejection of Labour/Tory IME. It is usually a combination of Farage appeal and an agreement with what Reform are proposing. The problem for me (leaving aside the regular revelations about the character of various Reform candidates/Councillors and so on) is that Reform are offering more pie in the sky.

 

[All uphill]

To be fair, as much as I enjoy NCAP and value the contributions on here, I definitely don't live in a leftie liberal bubble as some might believe 😉 I do think that slightly underestimates why people are voting Reform, I don't think it is merely a vote against the main parties or as you say people feel they have "nothing to lose". Reform are very clear on what they stand for; stringent migration rules/deportation of illegal migrants, rowing back net zero, tougher policing/lawmaking, bringing back British manufacturing, "sovereignty" in lawmaking, supporting rural economies. Let's be frank, it is a clear appeal to a bygone era of the UK in many respects, things like British manufacturing are never coming back, but it appeals to some people (and is working clearly). I have had conversations with a fair few people that have or are thinking about voting Reform, it rarely stems from a rejection of Labour/Tory IME. It is usually a combination of Farage appeal and an agreement with what Reform are proposing. The problem for me (leaving aside the regular revelations about the character of various Reform candidates/Councillors and so on) is that Reform are offering more pie in the sky.

I have that kind of conversation too.

A belief/hope that protectionism, expulsion of furriners, can return us to a mythical golden age of full employment and cheap houses, when cancer, uppity women and domestic abuse didn't exist.

Myths and dreams are much more powerful than facts.