Reform, and the death of the Tory Party

[briantrumpet]

To be fair, as much as I enjoy NCAP and value the contributions on here, I definitely don't live in a leftie liberal bubble as some might believe 😉 I do think that slightly underestimates why people are voting Reform, I don't think it is merely a vote against the main parties or as you say people feel they have "nothing to lose". Reform are very clear on what they stand for; stringent migration rules/deportation of illegal migrants, rowing back net zero, tougher policing/lawmaking, bringing back British manufacturing, "sovereignty" in lawmaking, supporting rural economies. Let's be frank, it is a clear appeal to a bygone era of the UK in many respects, things like British manufacturing are never coming back, but it appeals to some people (and is working clearly). I have had conversations with a fair few people that have or are thinking about voting Reform, it rarely stems from a rejection of Labour/Tory IME. It is usually a combination of Farage appeal and an agreement with what Reform are proposing. The problem for me (leaving aside the regular revelations about the character of various Reform candidates/Councillors and so on) is that Reform are offering more pie in the sky.

It's essentially nostalgia for a past that never existed + xenophobia + "all politicians are liars" + simplistic solutions to complex/intractable problems.

Farage's genius is pulling that all together consistently, and despite the utter failure of his flagship Brexit to 'solve' immigration or boost the economy as promised, to avoid proper scrutiny on that or anything else whatsoever.

 

[icowden]

My comment was aimed at Labour in general. Although not sure why you think the last lot are relevant to the current poor performance of the party in charge?

Because you have to measure against something. You say Labour are performing badly but offer no evidence or yardstick by which to prove your statement.

Therefore it's just a pointless opinion.

For example, opinion polls say that people don't believe Labour is doing a great job with the economy.
Actual data shows that since they took power the economy is showing modest but patchy recovery.

The "public"s perception of the Government is coloured by reporting in the heavily biased dead tree media, and that which they read on social media - which is also often heavily biased.

So - where is your evidence and what are you measuring against? You criticise Reeves but she hasn't crashed the economy. Consumer confidence levels are improving amongst the younger generations. It's the miserable old gits that aren't moveable in their opinions (as has ever been the case).

 

[briantrumpet]

It's the miserable old gits on NCAP that aren't moveable in their opinions (as has ever been the case).

FTFY.

 

[Pinno718]

...stringent migration rules/deportation of illegal migrants, rowing back net zero, tougher policing/lawmaking, bringing back British manufacturing, "sovereignty" in lawmaking, supporting rural economies. Let's be frank, it is a clear appeal to a bygone era of the UK in many respects, things like British manufacturing are never coming back, but it appeals to some people (and is working clearly)....

Remind you of anyone?

 

[Dorset Boy]

There are plenty of examples of Reeves failing. She stated the objective was economic growth, a sensible aim.
So she:
Whacked up employer NI rates, reducing profitablility, reducing employment, hitting te younger end as a result and stiffling economic growth
Ballsed up taxing land as an investment, pointlessly dragging working farms into the equation, causing stress and upset and really pissing off rural communities
Reduced the tax credit on VCTs whilst widening their investment scope. She has made VCTs a lot less attractive from April 2026, which will stifle investment and therefore economic growth.
She is bringing pensions into the scope of Inheritance Tax which will make them less attractive, which is bad, bad, bad for the economy overall.
She leaked budget ideas and then u-turned, then leaked some more, then u-turned again, causing disruption to the economy needlessly, particularly given she held the budget much later than she should have.

That's just a quick off the top of my head couple of points that are contrary to the necessary aim of economic growth.

She's not an utter disaster, but she certainly isn't good.

 

[Shortfall]

'conned' ?
What hasn't Starmer done that you think he should have done given the state of the UK post Brexit/post Tory economy?

Just wondering.

How long have you got? No that you'd agree with my analysis in any case. The fact is that he is leading probably the most unpopular government since polling began and that includes the people who voted for him. Unemployment is up, growth is anaemic at best, nothing works, the prospects for the country look grim yada yada yada. If he was achieving anything of note don't you think his approval ratings would be higher? Do you think Reform would be polling so well? I know you guys don't think you're in a bubble but when you're in a well paid and reasonably secure job with retirement looming and a private pension to keep you in skiing holidays and ten grand bicycles it's hard to imagine life for the huge swathes of the population who are not quite so fortunate as you are. I'm not knocking you, and I wish you good luck if you fit that picture, I'm similarly fortunate. Millions aren't though. They've been let down by Labour, Tories and the Lib Dems (when they were in coalition) and they are sick of being sneered at by the political.establishment. They might end up worse off under Farage for all I know but I think they're well past the stage of having any fücks left to give.

 

[midlandsgrimpeur]

Remind you of anyone?

It's on the tip of my tongue 😂

 

[Pblakeney]

She's not an utter disaster, but she certainly isn't good.

But the claim is that Labour is a disaster.
They may be disappointing, or very disappointing, but they are not a disaster.

 

[Pinno718]

How long have you got? No that you'd agree with my analysis in any case. The fact is that he is leading probably the most unpopular government since polling began and that includes the people who voted for him. Unemployment is up, growth is anaemic at best, nothing works, the prospects for the country look grim yada yada yada. If he was achieving anything of note don't you think his approval ratings would be higher? Do you think Reform would be polling so well? I know you guys don't think you're in a bubble but when you're in a well paid and reasonably secure job with retirement looming and a private pension to keep you in skiing holidays and ten grand bicycles it's hard to imagine life for the huge swathes of the population who are not quite so fortunate as you are. I'm not knocking you, and I wish you good luck if you fit that picture, I'm similarly fortunate. Millions aren't though. They've been let down by Labour, Tories and the Lib Dems (when they were in coalition) and they are sick of being sneered at by the political.establishment. They might end up worse off under Farage for all I know but I think they're well past the stage of having any fücks left to give.

I don't disagree (though I don't fit that ^ profile).
However, for all your criticism of Starmer, the alternative on the table would be a disaster - do you not agree?

 

[briantrumpet]

The fact is that he is leading probably the most unpopular government since polling began and that includes the people who voted for him.

Thatcher's government polled at 16% in 1981 pre-Falklands and again in 1990 during the poll tax debacle.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/margaret-thatcher-1925-2013

 

[Shortfall]

I don't disagree (though I don't fit that ^ profile).
However, for all your criticism of Starmer, the alternative on the table would be a disaster - do you not agree?

Potentially. I don't think Farage's economic policies (such as we know of them) will achieve what he hopes, but then again what's the alternative? More of the same? People clear!y don't want that.

 

[Shortfall]

But the claim is that Labour is a disaster.
They may be disappointing, or very disappointing, but they are not a disaster.

They're not even 2 years in yet. Time will tell but it doesn't look good to me so far. What's that saying about how did you go bust? "Very slowly then suddenly".

 

[briantrumpet]

Potentially. I don't think Farage's economic policies (such as we know of them) will achieve what he hopes, but then again what's the alternative? More of the same? People clear!y don't want that.

People want unicorns, and Farage promises them. The electorate has still not learnt that 'least worst politics' is the best they are going to get. I don't know how many times we've got to go down the route of discovering that populist politicians offering simple solutions to complex problems never deliver. Although the evidence from Reform-led councils so far is that they don't deliver what they promise (maxing out on council tax rises rather than cuts), and from Brexit that none of the supposed benefits they 'promised' have emerged.

But yeah, let's give them the reins.

 

[midlandsgrimpeur]

I'm not knocking you, and I wish you good luck if you fit that picture, I'm similarly fortunate. Millions aren't though.

I completely agree with this, but many of these people are not the ones voting Reform (or intending to vote Reform). Most of the research into Reform's current voting base suggests around one third are financially struggling or lower income. Older age groups (often financially comfortable) make up a significant part of the voter base, hardline conservatives, anti establishment/authority types, culturally and economically right wing. I think their voting intentions are quite often ideological, not necessarily practical in many cases.

 

[Pblakeney]

Potentially. I don't think Farage's economic policies (such as we know of them) will achieve what he hopes, but then again what's the alternative? More of the same? People clear!y don't want that.

People want unicorns as Brian says. They will be very disappointed.
It won't take 2 years for Reform to be found out. I'm thinking Truss/lettuce levels.