Reform, and the death of the Tory Party

[Shortfall]

I think the terms employment rising and immigration falling need better definition

I mean, immigration is falling, no?

Honestly I don't know. Let's say immigration "returns to historic norms or below".

 

[TailWindHome]

Honestly I don't know. Let's say immigration "returns to historic norms or below".

See, this where the Farage project could come unstuck very rapidly.
I'd suggest that a significant proportion of his 2x% polling would describe a historic norm of (lets say) 100k net immigration as a betrayal

 

[Bromptonaut]

I'm paying little (or no) attention to bookies or pollsters at this point.

Three weeks + out that maybe rational but bookies numbers by polling day have been pretty good predictors in recent elections.

 

[Beebo]

Honestly I don't know. Let's say immigration "returns to historic norms or below".

There is no such thing as an historic norm. We live in a global village now. International travel is very easy so migration is bound to be higher.

net migration fell to 204,000 in the year ending June 2025, down from a 2023 peak of 944,000.

Labour should be absolutely shouting about this. It’s what Reform voters wanted.

 

[briantrumpet]

There is no such thing as an historic norm. We live in a global village now. International travel is very easy so migration is bound to be higher.

net migration fell to 204,000 in the year ending June 2025, down from a 2023 peak of 944,000.

Labour should be absolutely shouting about this. It’s what Reform voters wanted.

Wait for the goalposts to move. They need something to be angry about. Maybe it'll be how landlords are going to be paupers and that house prices are easing off, so how are they going to leave a fortune to their children when they die?

 

[TailWindHome]

Bringing that experience to bear

 

[Beebo]

Farage failed to turn up for the vote!

 

[AndyRM]

Farage failed to turn up for the vote!

View attachment 12854

Pish ups in breweries...

 

[C R]

And tonight Ms Kuenssberg plays penny shop Rattner to Nigel's penny shop Melania on our dime.

 

[Stevo 666]

Don't be silly, he doesn't do actual figures, just vague prejudice.

He didn't didn't the point as explained above, but figures supplied above re my point. Shame you didn't spot them before commenting.

 

[Stevo 666]

That's terrible isn't it? Hang on - fact check - GDP was 1.4% higher in 2025 under Labour than it had been under the Conservatives in 2024, and they only managed a 1.1% increase in Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023. So doesn't that mean that Labour is doing a better job than the Conservatives?


That's just a bit misleading. There were record vacancies in 2022 as jobs were opening up again post-covid. In 2023 job vacancies fell from 1.1 million to 949,000. In 2024 job vacancies fell from that to 812,000. They then fell to 726,000 in early 2025, but improved to 734000 by year end. I'm not clear whether vacancies are good or bad.

But then the Tories froze income tax thresholds in 2022 for 6 years, increased dividend tax rates, lowered the additional rate threshold. So they are responsible for a lot of the tax burden. So yes, Labour increased NI, but that was just the icing on the cake really.


No - but then polls aren't actually based on reality. They are based on opinion so they don't mean much.

To put it another way, outside of normal taxes, Liz Truss has cost me almost £6000 a year for 10 years by crashing the economy. Starmer has cost me £6000 over 2 years.

What part of 'I'm not interested in whataboutery' don't you understand? Your defence of Labour seems to be 'but, but nasty Tories'. You need to justify why Labour aren't messing things up rather than trying to compare to a previous administration.

 

[Stevo 666]

Can you put that into graph please? I believe there's a thread where you can post it.
But really Stephen, well done for at least coming up with some numbers.

CBA. Especially as you're trying to be patronising again. But thanks for you valuable contribution Bobz 🙂

 

[secretsqirrel]

And tonight Ms Kuenssberg plays penny shop Rattner to Nigel's penny shop Melania on our dime.

Inside Reform: Laura Kuenssberg follows Farage's party as it experiences the glare of scrutiny

If this is anything to go by don’t expect anything too forensic.

Warning piece starts….
"We are halfway towards being ready," Nigel Farage tells me. On occasion, he is quite unlike other politicians, with flashes of honesty you wouldn't hear from others. He says he wants to be prime minister, while admitting his party is not yet ready for power.

 

[bobzmyunkle]

you're trying to be patronising again.

Trying? Now you're being patronising.

 

[briantrumpet]

Honesty? Eh, Laura K? Has she been taking Chris Mason's medication?