Spin Time

[spen666]

Its the day when all the political parties appear on broadcast media spinning about how they've been successful in elections and other parties have failed.

It almost seems a competition to see which party can make the most outrageous claims of success for them and failure for the other parties

 

[CXRAndy]

There's always a golden flake in all the piles of coal for politicians

 

[AndyRM]

I think Reform will claim this as a success:

The guy isn't from the area and his manifesto leaflet was the stuff of dreams.

 

[CXRAndy]

Coming from zero base to be a close 2nd is a earthquake wake up call

 

[briantrumpet]

Even at this early stage, I think it's clear that tactical voting will be in order at the next general election again, as Reform are going to pick up voters from Labour who think they've got nothing to lose, from Tories who think Tories aren't Reformy enough, and from people who believe populism will make the UK the milk of land and honey, as Brexit has been such a success so far.

Labour will learn exactly the wrong lesson and rather than realise that people have lost faith in them because they've abandoned Labour principles and the EU will still chase the Reform vote. The Tory Party will just try to out Farage Farage (but without his mastery of populism), and Lib Dems... well, who knows?

 

[briantrumpet]

I'm sure Greater Lincolnshire will benefit from Andrea Jenkyns' expertise.

 

[AndyRM]

Coming from zero base to be a close 2nd is a earthquake wake up call

I agree! Labour have been far too complacent in North Tyneside and the tide is definitely turning against them, largely because some of the most visible decisions they've made in recent years are ones that people don't like, the cycle paths around the coast being one example.

Another from a little while ago was their bizarre war on roundabouts which made no discernible difference.

 

[Beebo]

Even at this early stage, I think it's clear that tactical voting will be in order at the next general election again, as Reform are going to pick up voters from Labour who think they've got nothing to lose, from Tories who think Tories aren't Reformy enough, and from people who believe populism will make the UK the milk of land and honey, as Brexit has been such a success so far.

Labour will learn exactly the wrong lesson and rather than realise that people have lost faith in them because they've abandoned Labour principles and the EU will still chase the Reform vote. The Tory Party will just try to out Farage Farage (but without his mastery of populism), and Lib Dems... well, who knows?

The FPTP system isn’t going to help Reform in a General Election.
I expect they will end up like the LibDems with a large overall percentage and maybe 30 seats in the Brexit heartlands.
It will be interesting to see if another 4 years of Trump kills off the drive towards Populism.

 

[briantrumpet]

Labour lost to Reform by six votes in the Runcorn by-election, but Tories are toast when they are up against Reform.

 

[briantrumpet]

I suspect that turnout will be woefully low... I've never seen my local polling station so deserted. (Like a fool, I left it too late to send in my postal vote, so ended up dropping mine in.) That will have benefited Reform massively, I suspect.

 

[Stevo 666]

Labour lost to Reform by six votes in the Runcorn by-election, but Tories are toast when they are up against Reform.

View attachment 8138

I don't think the Tories ever stood a chance based on the results of the last General Election:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001455

This was (until yesterday) a 'vote for a hat stand if it had a red rosette on it' constituency. So the big news here is the kicking that Labour got from Reform - as it says above 'Reform gain from Labour'. If this sort of swing were repeated in the next GE, you should be worried.

 

[Ian H]

As AJP Taylor said, by-elections are never important, they're just a chance for voters to protest. They "return to their senses" at the next national vote.
A similar thing holds for local elections. Reform will do well this time then fade in due course. The fate of the Tories is an unknown factor for the future.

 

[Stevo 666]

As AJP Taylor said, by-elections are never important, they're just a chance for voters to protest. They "return to their senses" at the next national vote.
A similar thing holds for local elections. Reform will do well this time then fade in due course. The fate of the Tories is an unknown factor for the future.

That didn't happen at the last GE. Look at what we have now.

 

[Stevo 666]

Labour will learn exactly the wrong lesson and rather than realise that people have lost faith in them because they've abandoned Labour principles and the EU will still chase the Reform vote. The Tory Party will just try to out Farage Farage (but without his mastery of populism), and Lib Dems... well, who cares?

FTFY.

 

[Pross]

I've never understood why the politicians from the Party in Government (whether that's Labour or the Tories) don't make much more of how easy it is for a minor Party to promise the moon on a stick and pet unicorns knowing they aren't in a position where they need to actually deliver. We saw the last government actually in a position where they were having to try to look like they were delivering in this way and it didn't take long for the electorate to catch on. I suspect Farage, like his idol Trump, would love the glory of being PM but would hate the actual amount of work involved and would make a complete bollox of actually trying to deliver his populist policies. I'm hoping we never have to discover quite how bad it would work out. Opposition politics is ridiculously easy and I'll never understand why anyone actually wants their Party to govern.

Reform winning Councils could be a good thing as the electorate will get an idea of their incompetence on a micro scale (that won't affect me). I'm slightly concerned about the Welsh elections next year though.