Spin Time

[briantrumpet]

I don't think the Tories ever stood a chance based on the results of the last General Election:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001455

This was (until yesterday) a 'vote for a hat stand if it had a red rosette on it' constituency. So the big news here is the kicking that Labour got from Reform - as it says above 'Reform gain from Labour'. If this sort of swing were repeated in the next GE, you should be worried.

I think we should all be worried if Reform get in.

 

[briantrumpet]

It would actually be extremely amusing if after being usurped by Reform, the Tories used the excuse to decide that they were going to honour the legacy of Thatcher by 'realising' the mistake of leaving the SM & CU, while Labour stick to their red lines alienating all the people (like me) who hoped they'd make the case for SM & CU. That really would be cat amongst the pigeons time.

Alas, I think the Tory Party is broken, and has forgotten how to win an election, preferring just to troll, but not very well.

 

[icowden]

Looking at the results so far, the Mayoral results have all been Labour except for the new mayor of Greater Lincolnshire which is now Reform (or former Conservative). In terms of the local elections the main change is that two thirds of conservative seats have gone to reform candidates. Labour is down a few, but that's normal for the party in charge during local elections.

It'll be interesting to see how many of those Reform councillors are in post by the end of the year given the historic tendency of Reform candidates to be violent abusers and/or racist.

 

[Fab Foodie]

As AJP Taylor said, by-elections are never important, they're just a chance for voters to protest. They "return to their senses" at the next national vote.
A similar thing holds for local elections. Reform will do well this time then fade in due course. The fate of the Tories is an unknown factor for the future.

Exactly what is the sensible choice now?

 

[Pross]

Looking at the results so far, the Mayoral results have all been Labour except for the new mayor of Greater Lincolnshire which is now Reform (or former Conservative). In terms of the local elections the main change is that two thirds of conservative seats have gone to reform candidates. Labour is down a few, but that's normal for the party in charge during local elections.

It'll be interesting to see how many of those Reform councillors are in post by the end of the year given the historic tendency of Reform candidates to be violent abusers and/or racist.

Lincolnshire is the UK equivalent of the Deep South

 

[rakkor]

It would actually be extremely amusing if after being usurped by Reform, the Tories used the excuse to decide that they were going to honour the legacy of Thatcher by 'realising' the mistake of leaving the SM & CU, while Labour stick to their red lines alienating all the people (like me) who hoped they'd make the case for SM & CU. That really would be cat amongst the pigeons time.

Alas, I think the Tory Party is broken, and has forgotten how to win an election, preferring just to troll, but not very well.

What pisses me off the most about Labour's SM&CU stance, is the votes they are afraid of losing to Reform by rejoining are lost already, so all they are doing is alienating pro-rejoin voters so for them it's lose-lose

 

[briantrumpet]

It's hard to argue with this. 30% turnout.

 

[Stevo 666]

It's hard to argue with this. 30% turnout.

View attachment 8140

There's only one position for mayor, so who do you give it to?

 

[Ian H]

Exactly what is the sensible choice now?

I'm scratching my crystal balls and trying to think of an answer.

I suspect yesterday was mostly a protest vote.

 

[Beebo]

Listening to the Reform acceptance speech.
Their main policy seems to be putting asylum seekers in tents instead of hotels!

That sounds workable!

 

[briantrumpet]

There's only one position for mayor, so who do you give it to?

Return to the system that was there before (SV) to reduce the role and lottery of tactical voting. It can work both ways, so, say you were keen to have a right wing mayor (I know, imagine!!), you could put down Conservative & Reform as your top two, and if they each got 30% but Labour got 40%, you'd get your right wing mayor.

https://www.electoralcommission.org...anges-voting-system-mayoral-and-pcc-elections

 

[Fab Foodie]

I'm scratching my crystal balls and trying to think of an answer.

I suspect yesterday was mostly a protest vote.

I suspect not.
Clearly the last GE was a major protest against the ruination of the country by the Cons. But sadly Labour has done nothing in Govt. that has convinced the 'average voter' that anything has changed from Tory austerity. The talk is still of cuts in public services and support for the poorest, the rich are getting richer, more people are visiting the food-banks and more forriners are arriving.
There is no 'hope' or positive vision whether real or imagined for most people now. Labour are failing them. Reform and the far-right are perfectly poised to lie their way to ever greater influence and we'll all suffer as a result.
It's like we're in-step with the USA but 5 years behind.

One thing we share in real time with the USA is that we both need to change to a more representative voting system....

 

[briantrumpet]

I suspect not.
Clearly the last GE was a major protest against the ruination of the country by the Cons. But sadly Labour has done nothing in Govt. that has convinced the 'average voter' that anything has changed from Tory austerity. The talk is still of cuts in public services and support for the poorest, the rich are getting richer, more people are visiting the food-banks and more forriners are arriving.
There is no 'hope' or positive vision whether real or imagined for most people now. Labour are failing them. Reform and the far-right are perfectly poised to lie their way to ever greater influence and we'll all suffer as a result.
It's like we're in-step with the USA but 5 years behind.

One thing we share in real time with the USA is that we both need to change to a more representative voting system....

It's perplexing that Labour seem to have been bewitched by pollsters who are telling them that they've got to chase the Reform vote, instead of setting out their stall for genuinely left-of-centre. We're going to end up with three parties who are just different shades of Reform, and that's not good for democracy. FPTP is looking very shaky, not least remembering that it gave Labour a 200-seat majority on just a 1.6% increase in vote share and 34% of the vote.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-923X.13504

 

[Pross]

It's perplexing that Labour seem to have been bewitched by pollsters who are telling them that they've got to chase the Reform vote, instead of setting out their stall for genuinely left-of-centre. We're going to end up with three parties who are just different shades of Reform, and that's not good for democracy. FPTP is looking very shaky, not least remembering that it gave Labour a 200-seat majority on just a 1.6% increase in vote share and 34% of the vote.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-923X.13504

They've got a massive majority and should be doing what they think is necessary rather than constantly worrying whether their decisions will lose them an election that is still up to 4 years away. The really stupid thing is that they are still upsetting the people they are trying to keep on side whilst not making the progress they need to in order to fix the complete mess they were left with by the previous lot (and what those who moved to them / ditched the Tories in droves voted for). Alienating those that voted for you to avoiid upsetting those that didn't / won't seems a strange strategy.

 

[CXRAndy]

That would be some swing