Stagflation Nation

[deptfordmarmoset]

Every time inflation predictions get published the figure goes up. The Bank of England, which has been hopelessly behind in a series of predictions, has now revised it upwards to 13% and a recession for up to 5 quarters. A couple of days ago, NIESR (National Institute of Economic and Social Research) forecast a 17.7% rise in the Retail Price Index. The future is looking bleaker than I have ever known it.

Going out for an evening drink a couple of days ago, I was stunned by how many people were out begging - I counted 7 within half a mile. And this is in London, which is likely to be the least hard hit. Heaven knows how it will be in other northern cities - see the Centre for Cities' figures for England below. Note, this is before the energy price increases hit later in the autumn. And before mortgages rocket and before renters no longer have enough funds to keep their homes.

View: https://twitter.com/CentreforCities/status/1555464919276978176?s=20&t=FTxhVVAsa-sEYBWETxYYZQ


This is, I fear, going to get very ugly. How are others in different cities seeing things develop? What steps are people taking in order to insulate themselves against the very worst?

 

[Salty seadog]

Every time inflation predictions get published the figure goes up. The Bank of England, which has been hopelessly behind in a series of predictions, has now revised it upwards to 13% and a recession for up to 5 quarters. A couple of days ago, NIESR (National Institute of Economic and Social Research) forecast a 17.7% rise in the Retail Price Index. The future is looking bleaker than I have ever known it.

Going out for an evening drink a couple of days ago, I was stunned by how many people were out begging - I counted 7 within half a mile. And this is in London, which is likely to be the least hard hit. Heaven knows how it will be in other northern cities - see the Centre for Cities' figures for England below. Note, this is before the energy price increases hit later in the autumn. And before mortgages rocket and before renters no longer have enough funds to keep their homes.

View: https://twitter.com/CentreforCities/status/1555464919276978176?s=20&t=FTxhVVAsa-sEYBWETxYYZQ


This is, I fear, going to get very ugly. How are others in different cities seeing things develop? What steps are people taking in order to insulate themselves against the very worst?

Fuel prices alone are going to sink so many people/families. Many are crapping themselves about the next couple of years.

This is in the 6th, 7th richest country in the world.

On a side note did anyone hear Sunak's comments about leveling up funding today?

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

On a side note did anyone hear Sunak's comments about leveling up funding today?

It was posted up on the Leadership thread earlier today. If you tell different lies to different sectors, your world is worth nothing. We can't be sure that he did what he said he did because lying is what he does to get elected.

 

[Ian H]

I've just read an article which refers to this report: https://economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org/ .
It's depressing reading, not least the huge increase in inequality ("A low-income household in Britain is typically £3,800 a year worse off than the equivalent one in France"). The rich have abandoned entrepreneurial activities to hoard their wealth in unproductive assets - mainly housing.

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

I've just read an article which refers to this report: https://economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org/ .
It's depressing reading, not least the huge increase in inequality ("A low-income household in Britain is typically £3,800 a year worse off than the equivalent one in France"). The rich have abandoned entrepreneurial activities to hoard their wealth in unproductive assets - mainly housing.

Property has been a wealth escalator for a long long time. Even now, house prices are rising just about ahead of inflation. But there's a point where mortgages rise beyond disposable income, defaults increase, and the market goes into reverse.

I'm not rich enough to buy anything where I need to be for family reasons. But I don't think property will be the answer it has been since Thatcher. (And previous century's ''rentier'' class have been associated with low-to-stagnating growth.)

 

[glasgowcyclist]

The authors could have given that the more accurate description of relating solely to England & Wales, given that there’s no mention of cities in Scotland or Northern Ireland which, currently, are still in the UK.

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

The authors could have given that the more accurate description of relating solely to England & Wales, given that there’s no mention of cities in Scotland or Northern Ireland which, currently, are still in the UK.

Agreed.