Starmer's vision quest

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AndyRM

Elder Goth
I'm genuinely curious now: is there any kind of fear you don't promote?
 
This is a very worrying trend:

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ince-labour-came-to-power-are-among-under-25s

Actual volume of figures is slightly less alarming, but still…

Where I work I get the impression that there is a growing uncertainty over levels of grad recruitment for the coming years. Partly economic, partly AI-related.

Employer’s NI increases were a bit crazy IMO. I’d probably have preferred a slight increase in income tax for the greater good. Now there seems to be so much flip-flopping and limited economic strategy from Reeves et al. I worry that many restaurants, pubs etc won’t last post-Christmas. Coffee shops are booming as people have an inherent need to treat themselves but cannot afford meals out and rounds in pubs.

Anyone else have views on this?
 

midlandsgrimpeur

Active Member
This is a very worrying trend:

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ince-labour-came-to-power-are-among-under-25s

Actual volume of figures is slightly less alarming, but still…

Where I work I get the impression that there is a growing uncertainty over levels of grad recruitment for the coming years. Partly economic, partly AI-related.

Employer’s NI increases were a bit crazy IMO. I’d probably have preferred a slight increase in income tax for the greater good. Now there seems to be so much flip-flopping and limited economic strategy from Reeves et al. I worry that many restaurants, pubs etc won’t last post-Christmas. Coffee shops are booming as people have an inherent need to treat themselves but cannot afford meals out and rounds in pubs.

Anyone else have views on this?

Difficult to know without more info on what industries are affected and types of contract they are on. I would make an educated guess it is probably areas like hospitality and more casual contracts where it is easier to terminate employment and younger ages make up higher % of the workforce (fuelled as you say by NI and general economic downturn).

If you have to make cuts, younger people who are less likely to qualify for redudancy pay also comes into the equation.

Just speculation on my part though. If it transpires this is grads in longer term and higher skilled roles I would be more worried (not to downplay a worrying trend in general).
 
Hard to tell if the numbers are mainly due to redundancies or due to roles not being actively recruited. The lack of job openings for grads and younger people generally certainly seems very apparent.
 

CXRAndy

Shaman
First Labour openly calls for Starmer to step down.

Clive Lewis- absolute nutjob, so doesn't really count as he wants Burnham reinstated, then take the Prime minister spot
 

Dorset Boy

Active Member
Given you start on lower wages when young, and the increased employer NI has massively negatively impcted yhe cost of employing lower paid folks, then no wonder the young are adversely impacted. It was an ecomomically illiterate decision when your stated aim was economic growth.
 

bobzmyunkle

Über Member
Given you start on lower wages when young, and the increased employer NI has massively negatively impcted yhe cost of employing lower paid folks, then no wonder the young are adversely impacted. It was an ecomomically illiterate decision when your stated aim was economic growth.

Eh? NI contributions are a percentage of wages, are they not?
Apart from that your argument appears to be somewhat circular.
 

Dorset Boy

Active Member
Make the cost of employing lower paid jobs significantly higher, and guess what, those jobs go and no new hires happen, because the margins for employers weren't great before. The young, due to inexperience, get paid less than older people with experience, which should be patently obvious.
Try understanding some basic business economics Bob.
 

bobzmyunkle

Über Member
Make the cost of employing lower paid jobs significantly higher, and guess what, those jobs go and no new hires happen, because the margins for employers weren't great before. The young, due to inexperience, get paid less than older people with experience, which should be patently obvious.
Try understanding some basic business economics Bob.

Well you posted a circular argument and then replied with something that stated a different argument. So I'm confused by your posts not 'basic business economics'.
Perhaps you'd like to reply to this by making a third different statement?
 

bobzmyunkle

Über Member
Well you posted a circular argument and then replied with something that stated a different argument. So I'm confused by your posts not 'basic business economics'.
Perhaps you'd like to reply to this by making a third different statement?

I should have said, your second post is plausible. But I think general economic uncertainty is the main driver.
 

Dorset Boy

Active Member
Nothing circular in my first post - explain what you think is circular please.

RfA put up employer NI contributions and significantly reduced the threshold at which employers pay it. That was a significant cost increase for small businesses (the engine of the economy) and those lower paid positions became a lot less viable for the employer. Remove the profit from a business, hit their cash flow, and guess what, people lose jobs.
 
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