monkers
Shaman
We'll likely agree that voter migration analysis is complex.
However, the invited superficial level analysis is that the 'other' vote is up 3% which includes Restore Britain. So on the face of it, it appears RB have already taken 3% out of Reform at launch. Otherwise, if we stick to looking at what must be rounded numbers, we might say that Greens have taken one from Lib Dems.
If Green grab the Gorton and Denton by-election next week and go on to take Labour seats in the forthcoming local elections, we might then see the polls reflecting migration in that direction. Not sure how many question marks to place after that rough analysis. However that will place Greens in direct competition with Reform at a general election - but of course all that is well ahead unless something less foreseeable happens.
One very interesting factor is the enormous gap that Yougov shows about the gendered vote, with women age between 18 and 50 are overwhelmingly for the Green Party and older men being for Reform.
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