Starmer's vision quest

[BoldonLad]

Looks like most of their 'lost' votes went to the Greens - probably not surprising given the number of students at the university.

Locally, our results will not be available until late this afternoon, but, if the trends showing elsewhere happen here, Labour are in for a real kicking.

I have not noticed any turnout figures?

 

[TailWindHome]

Sounds like a good night for reform.
An ok but disappointing night for the greens
An OK night for the Lib Dems
A mixed night for the Conservatives
The predictable poor night for Labour

All the prematch analysis warned against the 'early narrative' as the story changes as different regions announce during today and into tomorrow..

 

[C R]

Told ya 😜

That was my point in my first reply to @Beebo.

 

[Pblakeney]

Looks like most of their 'lost' votes went to the Greens - probably not surprising given the number of students at the university.

?????? I'm still not seeing this as good for the Greens. As yet.
Not focussing on one constituency, obviously.

 

[First Aspect]

Locally, our results will not be available until late this afternoon, but, if the trends showing elsewhere happen here, Labour are in for a real kicking.

I have not noticed any turnout figures?

The BBC pundits are saying it is different across the parties, i.e. that we are seeing Reforms performance inflated by indignant thickos and apathy elsewhere.

I have to confess that I couldn't be bothered to vote.

 

[briantrumpet]

Locally, our results will not be available until late this afternoon, but, if the trends showing elsewhere happen here, Labour are in for a real kicking.

I have not noticed any turnout figures?

The anectdotal (totes scientific, obvs) evidence I've seen is that Reform constituencies had better turnout, Reform voters being motivated to vote for change. Maybe they thought they were voting for another Brexit.

 

[bobzmyunkle]

Maybe they thought they were voting for another Brexit

Or just the Brexit they didn't get.

 

[briantrumpet]

Or just the Brexit they didn't get.

Oh yes, the unicorn one. They got everything they wanted and more as far as fracture with the EU was concerned, but weirdly everything got worse, and the rich didn't suffer as much as the already-poor. Funny that.

 

[briantrumpet]

Always worth taking Curtice's analysis into account.

 

[briantrumpet]

Looking at the Exeter wards, I think that that analysis holds up pretty well - quite a few really close results, but also quite messy given the five-way split.

 

[C R]

Always worth taking Curtice's analysis into account.

View attachment 14953

We have been saying that here since the general election.

 

[briantrumpet]

We have been saying that here since the general election.

If the Tories stay in 4th, two possibilities/likelihoods: they have an electoral pact with Reform for the GE in 2029 and/or they merge after a disastrous GE, assuming Farage doesn't get brought down by one of his many scandals (and I don't expect them to stop). To give him his due, Farage has always known how to play the media that we've got, by fair means or foul, to create grievance and then tap into it.

 

[briantrumpet]

Interesting that an acquaintance of mine who'd been voted in as a Labour councillor for Exeter at the last election not only lost her seat, but came 4th, behind Greens, Lib Dem, and Reform. I'm struggling to analyse that any further than Labour being unpopular and voters looking elsewhere.

 

[Ian H]

Interesting that an acquaintance of mine who'd been voted in as a Labour councillor for Exeter at the last election not only lost her seat, but came 4th, behind Greens, Lib Dem, and Reform. I'm struggling to analyse that any further than Labour being unpopular and voters looking elsewhere.

Tactical voting, methinks. At least in part.

 

[Psamathe]

I think the thing to watch will be whether Starmer tries to cling on, and if he does, whether he does anything more than pay lip service to changing course, as pretty much exactly as predicted he's lost more seats to the Greens than Reform. My take would be that he's utterly squandered the advantage of his massive parliamentary majority in fighting on Reform's agenda rather than setting out a positive progressive agenda and ignoring Reform's noise until now.

I see Starmer is taking full responsibility (="I've said the words so no further action or changes").

Maybe worse is he's yet again using the same speech as previous electoral failures and leadership threats, going to go "further and faster" after a "reset".

And he's clinging on
Starmer vows to fight on as PM despite heavy local election losses for Labour.

I do wonder if now many backbench Labour MPs will be considering their own re-election prospects and that might make a leadership challenge more likely.